·········································································································[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 ```··························································································································································································································································· 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 19 期：区域分化，泰国持续走强 ASEAN Index Tracking: Southeas ...

Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 2.93% over the two-week period from January 3, 2026, to January 16, 2026, outperforming China, the UK, the US, and India, but underperforming Japan, Latin America, and Africa[2] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF increased by 1.51%, lagging behind the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 1.42 percentage points[2] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF increased by 2.18%, underperforming the Southeast Asia ETF by 0.75 percentage points, supported by positive growth forecasts and economic recovery data[3] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF rose by 1.08%, underperforming by 1.85 percentage points, with strong trading data and optimistic economic outlooks providing support[3] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF gained 0.67%, underperforming by 2.26 percentage points, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and weak economic growth prospects[3] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF increased by 3.14%, outperforming by 0.20 percentage points, driven by a decline in unemployment to a multi-year low and targeted government financial support measures[3] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF edged up by 0.08%, underperforming by 2.85 percentage points, with stable performance supported by strong trade fundamentals[3] Trading Volume and Liquidity - The trading volume for Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF reached 529,000 shares, a week-on-week increase of 87.3%[14] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF saw a trading volume of 8.583 million shares, up by 49.3% week-on-week[14] - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF trading volume was 4.445 million shares, increasing by 119.8% week-on-week[14] Economic Indicators - Malaysia's unemployment rate fell to 2.9%, the lowest in 11 years, indicating a resilient job market[22] - Indonesia's GDP growth for Q4 2025 was reported at 5.45%, marking a recovery trend[16]

Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 1.59%, with Malaysia leading the gains while Vietnam weakened[37] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF dropped by 4.76%, underperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 6.36 percentage points[37] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.42%, underperforming by 2.02 percentage points, indicating a stable market with mixed macro growth expectations[38] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF decreased by 0.81%, underperforming by 2.40 percentage points, reflecting cautious market sentiment due to diverging business confidence[38] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF increased by 0.44%, underperforming by 1.16 percentage points, amid limited monetary easing effects and structural growth challenges[38] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF rose by 3.73%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by local currency appreciation and external capital inflows[38] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 1.00%, underperforming by 2.59 percentage points, as market sentiment reversed due to concerns over domestic debt risks[38] Market Risks - Key risks include macroeconomic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact market performance[36]

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF increased by 1.59%, outperforming China, India, the US, Japan, and Latin America, but underperforming Africa and the UK[6] - Southeast Asia Technology ETF decreased by 4.76%, lagging behind the overall Southeast Asia ETF by 6.36 percentage points[6] Group 2: Country-Specific ETF Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.42%, underperforming by 2.02 percentage points, with stable market conditions but structural consumption pressures[7] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF declined by 0.81%, underperforming by 2.40 percentage points, due to cautious market sentiment from divided business confidence[7] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF rose by 0.44%, underperforming by 1.16 percentage points, amid limited effects of monetary easing and structural growth challenges[7] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF increased by 3.73%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by currency appreciation and external capital inflows[7] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 1.00%, underperforming by 2.59 percentage points, with strong foreign capital inflows contrasted by debt risk concerns[7] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - Indonesia's economic growth forecast for 2025-2026 was raised to 5% by the World Bank, driven by strong exports and investment growth[16] - Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted down to a range of 1%-3%, reflecting weakened short-term economic momentum[19] - Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 1.5%, with inflation expected to return to target only by 2027[21] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include macroeconomic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact market performance across the region[34]

Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETFs fell by 0.84%, indicating a regional market correction, while Vietnam experienced positive growth[32] - The Southeast Asia ETF outperformed Latin America, India, and Japan, but lagged behind China, Africa, and the UK[32] Country-Specific Performance - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF declined by 4.49%, underperforming by 3.65 percentage points due to central bank rate cuts and social events[33] - Singapore's iShares MSCI ETF rose by 1.30%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by an upward revision of the 2025 GDP growth forecast[34] - Thailand's iShares MSCI ETF fell by 0.76%, outperforming by 0.08 percentage points, primarily affected by political uncertainty[34] - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF decreased by 0.44%, outperforming by 0.40 percentage points, with active trading and stable economic growth in Q2 2025[34] - Vietnam's Global X MSCI ETF increased by 2.88%, outperforming by 3.73 percentage points, bolstered by new decrees reducing land use fees and rents[35] Trading Volume Insights - The Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF had a trading volume of 145,000 shares, down 22.9% from the previous period[9] - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF saw a trading volume of 9.658 million shares, up 36.9%[10] - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF experienced a significant increase in trading volume by 107.5%[10] Risk Factors - The report highlights macroeconomic downturn risks and geopolitical tensions as potential threats to market stability[4][31]

Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETFs rose by 3.38% during the period from June 21 to July 4, 2025, indicating a regional market recovery[5] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF outperformed the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 0.77 percentage points, gaining 4.15%[35] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF increased by 1.69%, underperforming by 1.69 percentage points due to weak market conditions and lack of policy support[39] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF rose by 3.11%, underperforming by 0.27 percentage points, with market sentiment stabilizing after a short-term pullback[39] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF surged by 7.36%, outperforming by 3.98 percentage points, driven by political stability amid market volatility[39] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF gained 4.27%, outperforming by 0.89 percentage points, showing signs of recovery while still in a correction phase[39] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF rose by 5.33%, outperforming by 1.96 percentage points, reaching its highest level since April 2022 due to a U.S.-Vietnam tariff agreement[39] Trading Volume and Liquidity - The trading volume for Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF was 121,000 shares, up 8.4% from the previous period[14] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF saw a significant increase in trading volume by 60.7%, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF experienced a decline of 31.5%[14] Risk Factors - The report highlights macroeconomic downturn risks and geopolitical tensions as potential threats to market stability[34]