Core Points - The first Russia-Arab summit scheduled for October 15 in Moscow has been postponed due to the ongoing conflict and recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [1] Group 1 - Russian President Putin and Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani agreed to delay the summit as many Arab leaders invited to attend would find it difficult to participate under the current circumstances [1] - The ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by Egypt and Qatar, have led to a new agreement announced on October 9 [1] - Iraq holds the rotating presidency of the Arab League summit, which adds significance to its role in the postponement decision [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to weaken, reaching a near one-month low of approximately $3,291, with current trading around $3,296. The price closed at $3,327.60 on Thursday, reflecting a decline of about 0.13% [1] - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the recent price drop. Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September, potentially lowering rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, which could support gold prices in a low-interest-rate environment [1][3] - Mixed economic data has cast a shadow over market outlooks, with Q1 GDP revised down to a contraction of 0.5% and consumer spending growth adjusted from 1.2% to 0.5%. Additionally, initial jobless claims have risen to the highest level since November 2021, indicating a slowdown in hiring due to tariff policies and economic uncertainty [3] - The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.25% and the 30-year yield to 4.811%. The steepening yield curve reflects concerns about long-term inflation pressures and is linked to a weak labor market and rate cut expectations [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Market expectations for a September rate cut exceed 90%, while July's cut probability stands at only 20%, highlighting the importance of upcoming PCE data as a potential catalyst for gold price fluctuations [3][4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices recorded a small-bodied close, indicating a potential challenge below the $3,290 level, with risks of testing around $3,250 if this support is breached [5] - The short-term trend has seen prices retreat from a high of $3,450, with recent trading showing weakness as prices tested $3,350 before declining to current levels around $3,291 [5] - Traders are advised to monitor the $3,310 level for potential short positions, with support levels noted at $3,290 and $3,255 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with significant volatility observed following U.S. military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On June 23, oil prices surged to a high of $76.74 per barrel due to supply concerns, but subsequently fell over 7% as President Trump called for lower prices and investor sentiment shifted to a wait-and-see approach [1] - As of June 24, the average price of reference crude oil was $74.91 per barrel, with a change rate of 11.12%, indicating a potential domestic price increase of 520 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices showed a cautious decline, with the 92 gasoline index at 8730 and the 0 diesel index at 7632, reflecting decreases of 26 and 17 respectively from the previous trading day [1] - The market is characterized by a mixed response, with some regions experiencing slight price increases while others maintain stable pricing amid expectations of future price adjustments [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market remains cautious as it observes the Middle East situation, with expectations that the current change rate may continue to narrow, and support from news sources is diminishing [4] - Despite potential downward trends in gasoline and diesel prices, the overall decline is expected to be limited due to basic market support, with gasoline demand anticipated to improve during the summer season, while diesel demand remains weak due to adverse weather conditions [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with a trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan, and major indices such as the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index falling over 1% [1] - The only sector that saw an increase was oil and petrochemicals, which rose by 0.86% [4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's economic outlook has shown reduced uncertainty, but it remains at a high level, with GDP growth forecast for 2025 revised down to 1.4% and inflation expectations raised to 3% [2] - The dot plot indicates two expected rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, consistent with previous forecasts [2][3] Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the "1+6" policy measures to deepen the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the establishment of a growth tier for unprofitable companies [2] - This initiative aims to support high-quality unprofitable enterprises during their R&D phase, allowing them to transition to the main board once they achieve profitability, thereby enhancing confidence in the development of tech enterprises [2] Market Performance - As of June 19, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3362.11 points, down 0.79%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 1.21% and 1.36%, respectively [4] - A total of 699 stocks rose, while 4471 stocks declined, indicating a bearish market sentiment [4] Fund Tracking - The market's trading volume reached 12,810.23 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance rose to 18,286.52 billion yuan [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the positive communication between the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and U.S. President Donald Trump regarding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets [1] - Discussion included the necessity of coordinating closely on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and its implications for energy markets [1] - The conversation also covered the situation in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for a ceasefire and continued pressure on Russia [1] - Trade negotiations were assessed, with a commitment to reach a good agreement by July 9 [1]

Core Insights - Emerging market assets are experiencing a strong recovery, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rising for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak in 2023 [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index increased by 3% to 3,278 points, reaching its highest level since October 2024, indicating a significant return of global capital to emerging economies [1] Currency Performance - The five-week rise in the currency index is attributed to the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [3] - Currencies such as the Brazilian real, Indian rupee, and South African rand have appreciated over 2% against the dollar in the past month, with the Indonesian rupiah rising 1.8% in one week due to increased commodity exports [3] - Emerging market central banks have seen foreign exchange reserves grow for three consecutive months, enhancing their currency defense capabilities [3] Stock Market Dynamics - The stock index's performance is driven by structural opportunities, particularly in the semiconductor sector in Asia, which has benefited from surging demand for AI hardware, with tech stocks in South Korea and Taiwan averaging a 5.3% increase [3] - The consumer sector in Latin America has seen significant institutional investment following a decline in inflation in Brazil, leading to increased allocations [3] - Recent data indicates that emerging market equity funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion over the past two weeks, the highest level since Q3 2024 [3] Market Drivers - The current market rally is supported by three main drivers: expectations of a Fed rate cut in June, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to lower oil prices, and confirmed policy continuity in countries like India and Mexico post-elections, boosting infrastructure and manufacturing investments [4] - The yield premium of emerging market local currency bonds over developed countries has widened to 400 basis points, attracting sovereign funds and pension funds for rebalancing [4] Regional Disparities - There are notable regional disparities, with Eastern European markets facing pressure from EU carbon tax regulations, and Argentina experiencing high currency volatility, indicating a need for deeper structural reforms [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Vietnam's GDP data, as its export-driven economy's ability to maintain recovery momentum could be crucial for the sustainability of emerging market growth [4] Valuation Metrics - As of the report, the forward P/E ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index stands at 12.7 times, with a narrowing discount rate to developed countries at 18%, aligning with the five-year average [4] - If the US dollar index remains weak, emerging market assets are expected to continue generating excess returns in Q3 [4]