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关税乌云下的越南中企,观望之际加速出货
Hu Xiu· 2025-04-24 04:05
Core Points - The U.S. government announced a 46% reciprocal tariff on Vietnam, which has raised concerns among Chinese businesses operating in Vietnam, although the implementation has been postponed for 90 days [1][4][12] - Vietnamese companies are actively seeking to diversify their supply chains and explore new trade partnerships, particularly with Europe and other developing countries, in response to the trade tensions [6][40] - The potential impact of the tariffs could significantly harm Vietnam's export-driven economy, as exports to the U.S. account for approximately 30% of Vietnam's total exports and 25% of its GDP [8][11][12] Group 1: Business Operations and Strategies - Chinese companies in Vietnam, such as those in the packaging industry, are currently not making drastic changes to their production plans despite the tariff announcement [4][16] - Companies are preparing for potential impacts by expediting shipments and negotiating with clients to mitigate losses [12][15][30] - The Vietnamese government is engaging in negotiations with the U.S. to reduce the proposed tariffs and has expressed willingness to lower tariffs on U.S. goods to zero [17][19][20] Group 2: Economic Impact and Trade Relations - The tariffs could lead to a 3.5% reduction in Vietnam's economic output by 2026 under optimistic scenarios, effectively halving the country's growth rate [12][21] - Vietnam's export economy, particularly in sectors like ceramics and agricultural products, is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with some local industries facing increased tariffs on their exports [13][14][15] - The Vietnamese government is taking steps to strengthen its trade relationships with both the U.S. and China, aiming to maintain a balance in its foreign relations [40][41] Group 3: Investment Trends - Chinese investment in Vietnam has surged, with registered investments reaching $4.47 billion in 2023, a 77.6% increase from the previous year [22] - The focus of Chinese investments is shifting from traditional manufacturing to high-tech and renewable energy sectors, indicating a diversification of investment strategies [22][23] - The presence of Chinese companies in Vietnam is expected to continue growing, as they seek to mitigate risks associated with U.S.-China trade tensions [29][44]