中国+1策略

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“脱钩”逆流必败于合作大势
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-21 22:06
更重要的是,中国持续深化改革开放,不断提升营商环境市场化、法治化、国际化水平,从缩减外资准 入负面清单到落实《中华人民共和国外商投资法》,一系列扎实举措让外资企业信心倍增,更愿长远布 局。报告显示,71%的受访企业在2024年实现盈利。48%的企业认为中国市场监管环境透明度较高,较 去年大幅提升13个百分点;41%的企业对中国进一步开放市场充满信心。 事实上,不仅是在华美企,美国本土企业也越来越质疑美加征关税政策。他们清醒认识到,加征关税的 成本最终由美国企业和消费者承担,不仅削弱其产品竞争力,更导致供应链额外成本上升。以汽车行业 为例,2025年二季度,福特、通用和斯泰兰蒂斯因关税损失合计22.5亿美元,全年预计损失将达70亿美 元。利益受损的现实,促使更多企业呼吁取消不合理关税,正因为其违背市场规律、损害商业本质,是 保护主义短视之举。 上海美国商会9月中旬发布报告显示,尽管近年美国政府对华加征关税并推动所谓"供应链回流",但绝 大多数在华美企仍选择深耕中国市场,这场单方面发起的贸易战并未触发大规模企业回流。这一客观事 实,无疑是对"脱钩断链"论调的有力反驳,凸显出中国市场在全球经济格局中不可替代的战略价 ...
关税冲击下,许多在华美企选择“留在原地”
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-09-01 23:02
对于那些依赖中国及中国邻国制造产品的公司来说,这种不确定性是沉重的打击。它们受到更高关税的 冲击,而且难以在如何转移那些无法在美国国内生产的产品线上作出决定。上海咨询公司Tidalwave Solutions合伙人卡梅隆·约翰逊表示,"'中国+1'策略已经失败了,美国的中低端企业要么退出市场,要 么倒闭。" 此外,特朗普在第二任期内征收的"对等关税"已冲击了包括越南、柬埔寨和印度尼西亚在内的许多替代 制造业中心。"政治新闻网"称,这使得这些国家面临的关税税率接近中国。在特朗普决定提高税率以惩 罚继续购买俄罗斯石油的印度企业后,印度现在面临高达50%的关税。 美国服装鞋袜业联合会副总裁斯蒂芬·拉马尔在接受美媒采访时分析说,特朗普倾向于以非贸易相关问 题为借口,对其他国家提高关税,再加上与中国的无期限贸易谈判,这使得许多在华采购零部件的公司 决定留在中国,"直到情况明朗为止。人们不想离开中国,以免把生产转移到错误的地点"。 【环球时报特约记者 任重】"美国总统特朗普试图吸引本国企业离开中国,但结果适得其反。"美国"政 治新闻网"8月31日以此为题报道称,特朗普在竞选期间曾承诺,其贸易政策将促使制造业从中国回流至 ...
关税乌云下的越南中企,观望之际加速出货
Hu Xiu· 2025-04-24 04:05
Core Points - The U.S. government announced a 46% reciprocal tariff on Vietnam, which has raised concerns among Chinese businesses operating in Vietnam, although the implementation has been postponed for 90 days [1][4][12] - Vietnamese companies are actively seeking to diversify their supply chains and explore new trade partnerships, particularly with Europe and other developing countries, in response to the trade tensions [6][40] - The potential impact of the tariffs could significantly harm Vietnam's export-driven economy, as exports to the U.S. account for approximately 30% of Vietnam's total exports and 25% of its GDP [8][11][12] Group 1: Business Operations and Strategies - Chinese companies in Vietnam, such as those in the packaging industry, are currently not making drastic changes to their production plans despite the tariff announcement [4][16] - Companies are preparing for potential impacts by expediting shipments and negotiating with clients to mitigate losses [12][15][30] - The Vietnamese government is engaging in negotiations with the U.S. to reduce the proposed tariffs and has expressed willingness to lower tariffs on U.S. goods to zero [17][19][20] Group 2: Economic Impact and Trade Relations - The tariffs could lead to a 3.5% reduction in Vietnam's economic output by 2026 under optimistic scenarios, effectively halving the country's growth rate [12][21] - Vietnam's export economy, particularly in sectors like ceramics and agricultural products, is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with some local industries facing increased tariffs on their exports [13][14][15] - The Vietnamese government is taking steps to strengthen its trade relationships with both the U.S. and China, aiming to maintain a balance in its foreign relations [40][41] Group 3: Investment Trends - Chinese investment in Vietnam has surged, with registered investments reaching $4.47 billion in 2023, a 77.6% increase from the previous year [22] - The focus of Chinese investments is shifting from traditional manufacturing to high-tech and renewable energy sectors, indicating a diversification of investment strategies [22][23] - The presence of Chinese companies in Vietnam is expected to continue growing, as they seek to mitigate risks associated with U.S.-China trade tensions [29][44]
中国反制美国“对等关税”,懂王这回踢到铁板了
Hu Xiu· 2025-04-06 04:37
比懂王乱来更让全世界意外的,是中国的雷霆反击: 仅仅隔了一天,4月4日,中方宣布一揽子政策,坚决反制美国加征的"对等关税"。中方强势宣布,对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征34%关税。粗略估 算,涉及进口额大约1620亿美元。 你敢加34%,我就敢立刻反手加给你,这样"正面硬刚"的热血姿态,绝对是历史性的一幕。 金融界的数据显示,短短两天时间,美股市场市值蒸发了近6.5万亿美元,折合人民币超过47万亿元。美股"七巨头"市值总共损失了1.8万亿美元。 高度依赖全球化的产业链的科技巨头,统统先跌为敬。苹果跌幅超过9%,创有史以来最大跌幅,英伟达也得了快8%,再创新低。耐克、史丹利等多数依 靠海外制造的公司跌幅都在15%以上。 为什么中国这一次反击如此坚决?最重要的原因是,比起2018年,中国的底气更足,手里的牌更实了。 让人想起2021年安克雷奇的中美高层战略对话,杨洁篪那几句掷地有声的话语: 我们把你们美国想得太好了。美国没有资格居高临下同中国说话,中国人不吃这一套。 此次懂王重返白宫,中国外交早已有言在先: 不少专家解读,这样的反应速度和幅度,意味着中方提前做好了充分准备,对美反制的工具和措施充足。 没有做好心理 ...