上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 08 月 22 日 永辉超市 (601933) ——存量门店调改加速，静待盈利拐点 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 4.96 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 7.87/2.15 | | 市净率 | 10.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 45,012 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,825.76/12,166.06 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 0.46 | | 资产负债率% | 88.21 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 9,075/9,075 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 《永辉超市（601933）点评：品质零售转 型加快，长期盈利改善可期》 2025/04/27 《永辉超市（601933）点评 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yonghui Supermarket (601933.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a painful reform period, with expectations for a turning point to come [1] - Revenue for H1 2025 was 29.95 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 20.73%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 240 million RMB, an increase in loss of 516 million RMB compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to store closures and the adjustment of stores, with a significant number of long-term loss-making stores being shut down [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The overall sales scale has decreased, and the company is experiencing short-term gross margin decline due to supply chain reforms [2] - The gross margin for the reporting period was 20.80%, down 0.78% year-on-year [2] - The company closed 227 loss-making stores during the reporting period, incurring costs related to leasing, personnel compensation, and asset write-offs [2] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating its supply chain reform, having signed contracts for bare procurement with 2,860 standard product suppliers and reducing the number of suppliers by approximately 50% [2] - The fresh food segment has increased the proportion of source procurement to over 60% [2] - The self-operated sales ratio in the cooked food processing segment increased from 40.2% to 78.1% [2] Store Opening and Closing - The company opened 93 adjusted stores in H1 2025, with a total of 124 adjusted stores by the end of June 2025 [3] - The total number of stores decreased to 552, with adjusted stores accounting for 22% [3] - It is expected that by the end of the year, adjusted stores will account for over 50%, potentially leading to a performance turning point [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 56.939 billion RMB, 97.996 billion RMB, and 111.198 billion RMB, with year-on-year changes of -15.74%, +72.11%, and +13.47% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -426 million RMB, 1.291 billion RMB, and 1.805 billion RMB for the same period, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of N/A for 2025, 35x for 2026, and 25x for 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's new model, the L90, is crucial for the company's turnaround and achieving profitability in Q4 2023, as it faces significant competition and internal challenges [1][16]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Position - The L90 is positioned as a large family SUV with a starting price of 279,900 RMB, significantly lower than market expectations of 300,000-350,000 RMB [1]. - NIO has not disclosed the order status for the L90, but CEO Li Bin indicated that orders are increasing rapidly and meeting market expectations [3]. - The L60 model has struggled to achieve expected sales, attributed to high pricing and insufficient market penetration strategies [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - NIO's sales have lagged behind competitors like Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Xpeng, with NIO's sales fluctuating between 10,000 to 20,000 units per month compared to competitors' 25,000 to 35,000 units [4][12]. - The competitive pressure has intensified, with other new energy vehicle brands successfully implementing low-price strategies, which have proven effective in boosting sales [12]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Profitability Goals - NIO reported a revenue of approximately 12.035 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with a net loss of 6.75 billion RMB, indicating a widening loss [13]. - Li Bin emphasized the need for NIO to achieve profitability in Q4 2023, with the L90 expected to contribute significantly to sales targets [14][15]. - The company aims for a monthly sales target of 55,000 units across all brands, with the L90 expected to account for 50% of this volume [14]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - NIO is restructuring its organizational framework to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs, with Li Bin personally involved in supply chain negotiations [7][8]. - The L90's design incorporates practical features aimed at family users, reflecting a shift towards more consumer-friendly product offerings [11]. - The integration of sales and delivery systems between NIO and the L90 brand aims to streamline operations and enhance market responsiveness [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reforms initiated by Ye Guofu at Yonghui Supermarket, focusing on anti-corruption measures and supply chain optimization to enhance retail quality and operational efficiency [1][2][3]. Group 1: Anti-Corruption Measures - Ye Guofu has publicly declared a war against corruption and hidden rules within the supply chain, emphasizing the need for transparency and integrity in supplier relationships [1][5][6]. - The reform plan targets three main areas: clean cooperation, supplier onboarding, and financial settlement, ensuring prompt payments without unnecessary delays or complications [7][10]. - Ye aims to eliminate the traditional practices that have led to corruption, such as requiring suppliers to pay various fees to enter the supermarket channel, which can create a breeding ground for corrupt practices [6][8]. Group 2: Supply Chain Optimization - Under Ye's leadership, Yonghui is focusing on core suppliers by adopting a direct procurement model, reducing intermediaries, and cutting unnecessary costs [11][12]. - The strategy involves retaining only 200 core suppliers to ensure quality and reliability, with Ye personally overseeing these relationships [14][20]. - Yonghui plans to develop 100 billion-level products in collaboration with suppliers over the next three years, aiming for self-branded products to account for 40% of total sales in 3-5 years [24][30]. Group 3: Organizational Restructuring - Ye has initiated a significant restructuring of the internal team, with a shift in board composition and management roles, replacing several long-standing members with new talent from Miniso [16][18]. - The organizational structure is being simplified from a four-tier to a three-tier system to enhance efficiency [27]. - Ye's reform also includes closing underperforming stores, with an estimated 250-350 closures planned for the year [28][32]. Group 4: Performance and Future Outlook - The article notes that Yonghui has begun to see positive changes, with a reported profit of 74.72 million yuan from 41 remodeled stores in the first quarter [30]. - The company is optimistic about its recovery, projecting that by the end of September, 200 remodeled stores will significantly boost overall performance [31][34]. - Despite a loss of 1.465 billion yuan in 2024 and a nearly 20% decrease in revenue in the first quarter, the management believes the reforms will lead to a turnaround [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reforms initiated by Ye Guofu at Yonghui Superstores, focusing on anti-corruption measures and supply chain improvements to enhance operational efficiency and restore profitability. Group 1: Anti-Corruption Measures - Yonghui Superstores publicly declared a war against corruption and hidden rules, marking a new phase in Ye Guofu's supply chain reform [2][3] - Ye emphasized the need for transparency in pricing and quality during a supplier conference, demanding core suppliers to possess anti-corruption capabilities [4] - The company aims to eliminate corrupt practices that inflate supply chain costs, focusing on three main areas: clean cooperation, supplier onboarding, and financial settlement [5][6] Group 2: Supply Chain Reforms - Ye's strategy includes direct procurement from core suppliers, eliminating middlemen and unnecessary costs [8] - He identified thousands of suppliers in the fresh produce category, opting to work with 200 core suppliers to ensure quality and establish long-term partnerships [9] - The goal is to create a symbiotic relationship with suppliers, ensuring they feel secure and supported [9] Group 3: Internal Restructuring - Ye's reform efforts have led to significant changes within the Yonghui board, with the "Mingchuang system" gaining substantial influence [10] - A personnel adjustment occurred, resulting in the replacement of several key management positions within the supply chain system [11] - Ye appointed She Xianping as the Chief Purchasing Officer, who has a strong background in supply chain management [12] Group 4: Product Focus and Brand Development - Ye aims to focus on core products, planning to develop 100 billion-yuan-level products over the next three years [14] - The number of private label SKUs has been reduced from over 1,000 to 87, with a target for private label sales to reach 40% of total sales in the next 3-5 years [16] - Yonghui has already launched popular private label products and plans to introduce at least 60 new items this year [15] Group 5: Operational Changes and Financial Outlook - Ye's "433" reform plan targets organizational, operational, and supply chain improvements [17] - The management structure has been simplified from a four-level to a three-level system, enhancing efficiency [18] - Yonghui plans to close 250-350 underperforming stores this year, with a focus on improving overall profitability [19] - The company reported a profit of 74.72 million yuan from 41 remodeled stores in the first quarter, indicating positive momentum [21] - Despite a loss of 1.465 billion yuan in 2024, there are signs of recovery, with a projected increase in store renovations and overall sales [22]

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket is undergoing significant organizational changes, including the appointment of a new Chief Procurement Officer, She Xianping, to enhance its supply chain management and adapt to the competitive retail landscape in 2025 [4][5][6]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Yonghui appointed She Xianping, who has extensive experience in major retail chains like Sam's Club, Hema, and RT-Mart, as its first Chief Procurement Officer [5][6][8]. - She Xianping's background includes over a decade at Sam's Club, where he served as the National Fresh Procurement Director, and he has also contributed to building supply chain systems at Hema and RT-Mart [12][13][14]. Group 2: Organizational Restructuring - The establishment of the Chief Procurement Officer role signifies a shift from the previous decentralized procurement model to a centralized management approach, aiming to unify supply chain resources and standards [14][18][19]. - The restructuring involves relocating the standard product procurement headquarters and reducing redundant regional procurement departments to streamline operations [18][19]. Group 3: Supply Chain Strategy - Yonghui plans to implement a "naked price strategy + direct procurement model," eliminating middlemen to reduce costs and improve product quality [24][25]. - The company aims to increase its private label product share to 40% over the next 3-5 years, emulating the successful model of Sam's Club [26][29]. - Yonghui is also focusing on building long-term cooperative relationships with 200 core suppliers to enhance product competitiveness and align with national policies [31][42]. Group 4: Market Performance and Challenges - Financial data indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue down 19.32% and net profit down 79.96%, highlighting the costs associated with the ongoing reforms [47][48]. - The company is attempting to balance supply chain efficiency with localized operations, drawing from the strengths of both Sam's Club and local competitors [48][49]. Group 5: Industry Trends - Yonghui's reforms align with broader retail trends, emphasizing the need for supply chains to generate profit and foster long-term supplier relationships [40][41][42]. - The company is shifting its focus from merely selling products to providing lifestyle services, adapting to changing consumer expectations for a more integrated shopping experience [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket is undergoing significant organizational changes, including the appointment of a Chief Procurement Officer, to enhance its supply chain efficiency and adapt to the competitive retail environment in 2025 [1][4][20]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - Yonghui appointed She Xianping as the first Chief Procurement Officer, a newly created position aimed at centralizing procurement management [1][4]. - She Xianping has extensive experience in various retail formats, including Sam's Club, Hema, and RT-Mart, which aligns with Yonghui's strategy of integrating traditional supermarkets with quality retail and membership models [2][3]. Group 2: Organizational Restructuring - The restructuring involves moving the standard product procurement headquarters from Fuzhou to Guangzhou and eliminating redundant regional procurement departments to achieve centralized management [4][12]. - The new leadership aims to unify procurement processes, which were previously decentralized, to enhance resource integration and standardization [4][12]. Group 3: Supply Chain Strategy - Yonghui plans to implement a "naked price strategy + direct procurement model," eliminating middlemen to reduce costs and improve product quality [8][21]. - The company aims to increase its private label product share to 40% over the next 3-5 years, emulating the successful model of Sam's Club [9][21]. Group 4: Supplier Relationships - Yonghui is restructuring its supplier relationships by selecting 200 core suppliers and establishing a cooperative value creation model, moving away from traditional price negotiations [11][21]. - The company is focusing on long-term partnerships with suppliers to ensure product competitiveness and align with national policies on integrated trade [11][21]. Group 5: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Yonghui reported a 19.32% decline in revenue and a 79.96% drop in net profit, indicating the costs associated with the ongoing reforms [18][19]. - The company is facing challenges in balancing supply chain efficiency with localized operations while striving to enhance product offerings [20][21]. Group 6: Market Positioning - Yonghui aims to differentiate itself by focusing on a limited range of 500-800 core products to provide high cost-performance ratios, catering to evolving consumer preferences for quality and convenience [13][21]. - The company is positioning itself as a "national supermarket" with a unique Chinese identity, rather than merely replicating existing models from competitors [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket is facing significant financial challenges, including a decline in revenue and net profit, alongside legal issues that have led to restrictions on high consumption for the company and its legal representative [1][5][12]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Yonghui Supermarket reported a revenue of 67.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.07% compared to the previous year [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.47 billion yuan, which is a loss increase of 1.36 billion yuan year-on-year [5][6]. - The company's main business segment, "Fresh and Processed," saw a revenue drop of 12.82%, with a gross margin of 12.79%, down by 0.37 percentage points [7]. Store Operations - Yonghui Supermarket closed 232 underperforming stores, contributing to the overall revenue decline [7]. - The company has initiated a store renovation strategy, with 31 stores undergoing modifications that have reportedly increased foot traffic and sales [7][11]. - As of the report date, Yonghui has completed renovations on 61 stores and aims to exceed 124 renovated stores by June 2025, with a target of 300 by the Lunar New Year in 2026 [11]. Strategic Reforms - Yonghui is implementing aggressive reforms, including reducing the number of inefficient stores and focusing on core products [13][14]. - The company plans to streamline its supply chain by establishing long-term partnerships with 200 core suppliers and eliminating middlemen to adopt a direct procurement model [13]. - The store formats will be adjusted to three sizes: small (2000 sqm), medium (2600 sqm), and large (3200 sqm), focusing on key high-volume products [13]. Market Challenges - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with pressure from similar large retailers and online platforms [14]. - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the "Pang Donglai effect," as some renovated stores have experienced a decline in customer traffic after initial success [14].

Group 1: Company Performance and Financials - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 10.381 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 528 million [5] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was CNY 2.566 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 98.851 million [5] Group 2: Industry Overview - In 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while online retail sales grew by 7.2% [2] - Among retail formats, convenience stores, specialty stores, and supermarkets saw year-on-year growth of 4.7%, 4.2%, and 2.7% respectively, while department stores and brand specialty stores experienced declines of 2.4% and 0.4% [2] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - Key drivers for future profit growth include focusing on digital transformation, enhancing organizational efficiency, and optimizing cost control [1] - The company plans to strengthen member marketing and promote its "Zhongbai Neighborhood Purchase" app to enhance online product management and marketing [1] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to deepen supply chain reforms and improve store-level profitability through tailored strategies [2] - Plans include the closure of underperforming stores and the introduction of community service projects to enhance service quality [2] Group 5: Challenges and Responses - The company faces significant challenges due to increased competition from discount stores and e-commerce, leading to reduced foot traffic in traditional supermarkets [5] - To address losses, the company is focusing on digital transformation, supply chain optimization, and enhancing management structures [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and future projections. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.447 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 308 million yuan, an increase of 41.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in profitability driven by national subsidies and supply chain reforms [1][2]. - The company is transitioning towards a comprehensive home furnishing model, enhancing its retail system and optimizing its supply chain, which has led to improved gross margins across various product lines [3][4]. - The company has implemented a significant supply chain reform, resulting in a gross margin of 34.3% and a net profit margin of 8.9% in Q1 2025, with operational efficiency improving as indicated by reduced inventory and receivables turnover days [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.447 billion yuan, with a notable increase in net profit attributable to the parent company by 41.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was reported at 18.925 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.599 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year [1][6]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from direct sales, distribution, and bulk sales in Q1 2025 was 160 million yuan, 2.59 billion yuan, and 500 million yuan respectively, with varying year-on-year growth rates [2]. - The company’s product categories showed mixed performance, with cabinets and wardrobes experiencing declines, while bathroom and wooden doors saw growth [2]. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has established partnerships with over 305 city carriers, achieving a coverage of over 99% of integrable cities, which has significantly reduced logistics costs and improved operational efficiency [4]. - The company’s inventory turnover days decreased to 32 days, and accounts receivable turnover days also improved, indicating enhanced cash flow management [4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.92 billion yuan, 3.24 billion yuan, and 3.68 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14X, 12X, and 11X [5][6].