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美联储降息预期升温,海外流动性有望持续改善,恒生科技或深度受益
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-05 02:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may positively impact the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector [1][2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently in a historically undervalued range and is highly sensitive to changes in U.S.-China interest rate differentials, making it likely to benefit from a loosening of overseas liquidity [2] - As of August 1, the futures market implied that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.4 times within the year, an increase from the previous week [1] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September Federal Reserve meeting has exceeded 90%, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment towards easing monetary policy [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is characterized by high elasticity and growth potential, suggesting that it will have stronger upward momentum if market conditions improve [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account can consider using the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core Chinese AI assets [2]