2月25日，和讯投顾贺梦怡表示，周三早盘黄金直接冲破5150美元，白银站上87美元，节后行情彻底爆 炸了。春节金价过了山车，今天开盘沪金狂拉3.5%，沪银涨12.7%，补涨行情直接拉满消息面更刺激， 美国突然加码制裁，全球经贸不确定性飙升，关税政策反复，伊朗局势紧张，美联储内部分歧，三大利 好急推金价，避险资金疯狂涌入，现在就是高波动高机会看不懂行情，抓不住点位，不知道多空怎么操 作的，别乱来。 ...

Market Performance - In January 2026, the A-share market exhibited a strong "opening red" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.76%, the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.47%, and the Shenzhen Index up by 5.03% by the end of January [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 22.59% increase, while cyclical and high-elasticity sectors such as media, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals all saw gains exceeding 12% [2] - Technology and manufacturing sectors, including electronics, computers, and communications, also performed strongly [2] Mixed Public Fund Performance - As of January 29, 2026, there were a total of 128 mixed public funds with investment periods of 3 to 6 months, with 28 funds achieving a net value growth rate exceeding 5% over the past six months [3] - Nearly 70% of the products had a net value growth rate concentrated in the 1% to 5% range [3] - Notable institutions included Xingyin Wealth Management with 3 products listed, Ningyin Wealth Management with 2, and several others with 1 product each [3] Product Analysis - The "Rongzhu Mixed Anti-Inflation Strategy Semi-Annual Holding Period Wealth Management Product A" from Minsheng Wealth Management topped the list with a 6-month net value growth rate of 8.20% [4] - The product primarily invests in funds and bonds, with holdings of 54.28% in funds and 15.33% in bonds as of the end of Q4 2025 [4] - The top ten assets include stock ETF funds, bond funds, and bank preferred shares, with allocations to "E Fund Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF Link C" and "Huaan Gold ETF Link C" at 3.97% and 2.26%, respectively [4] - Despite low holding ratios, both ETFs experienced strong growth of 39.57% and 42.07% over the past six months, contributing to recent returns [4] - The product manager anticipates that the domestic capital market has completed its first round of valuation repair, with value stocks still at the bottom of the valuation range [4] - The technology sector's improving conditions are expected to further elevate market valuation bottoms, with a potential phase of rebound for blue-chip and financial stocks, excluding banks, anticipated in the first quarter [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Platinum may start a catch - up rally, and palladium may move upward in a volatile manner [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 619.35 with a 0.69% increase; the gold exchange platinum was at 612.53, up 1.22%; the New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2480.00, up 4.13%; the London spot platinum (previous day) was 2451.40, up 3.28%. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 490.00, up 2.52%; the RMB spot palladium was 439.00, up 0.69%; the New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1908.50, up 1.41%; the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1876.00, up 2.10% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Guangdong platinum (kg) was 22,573, an increase of 7,291 from the previous day, with an open interest of 37,684, a decrease of 487. The NYMEX platinum (kg) trading volume was 67,546, an increase of 23,139, and the open interest was 102,260, a decrease of 302. For Guangdong palladium (kg), the trading volume was 11,015, an increase of 4,734, and the open interest was 13,946, a decrease of 751. The NYMEX palladium (kg) trading volume was 25,620, an increase of 4,694, and the open interest was 55,635, a decrease of 837 [1] - **ETF Holdings**: The platinum ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 3,267,130, a decrease of 3,196. The palladium ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 1,192,732, a decrease of 229 [1] - **Inventory**: The Guangdong platinum (kg) inventory was 1, with no change. The NYMEX platinum (ounces) (previous day) inventory was 664,393, an increase of 100. The Guangdong palladium (kg) inventory was 1, with no change. The NYMEX palladium (ounces) (previous day) inventory was 207,020, a decrease of 3,888 [1] - **Price Spreads**: The PT9995 to PT2606 spread was - 6.82, an increase of 3.11 from the previous day; the Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 0.40, an increase of 1.30; the cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 7.61, an increase of 0.05; the spread between the Guangdong platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was - 0.82, a decrease of 14.99. The RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was - 51.00, a decrease of 9.05; the Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 2.25, an increase of 7.90; the cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.07, an increase of 0.13; the spread between the Guangdong palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 15, an increase of 2.67 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.55, a decrease of 0.82%; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.96, a decrease of 0.08%; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.96, a decrease of 0.23%; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.88, a decrease of 0.11% [1] Macro and Industry News - Trump listed 365 achievements at the press conference on the first anniversary of his return to the White House, and considered "taking back" the Panama Canal, among other things [4] - The European Parliament froze the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement [4] - The Congolese (Kinshasa) government forces recaptured the eastern strategic town of Uvira [4] - The special envoys of the Russian and US presidents held talks in Davos for about 2 hours to discuss the peace plan [4] - The Polish central bank approved a plan to buy 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves to 700 tons [4] - The US Supreme Court did not rule on the challenge to the legality of Trump's global tariffs, and the next ruling window is in a month [4] - The French Prime Minister used constitutional powers to send the revenue part of the 2026 budget to the lower house without a vote [4] - The ADP weekly employment report showed that private - sector employers added an average of 8,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending December 27, 2026 [4] Trend Strength - Platinum trend strength: 1; Palladium trend strength: 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Market Performance - A-shares have significantly risen, reaching a new high of 4083 points, marking a bullish trend with increased trading volume of 2.8 trillion yuan [2] - The market has set two records: a closing point above 4000 for the first time in over a decade and a 13-day consecutive rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Market Capitalization - As of the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares is approximately 123 trillion yuan (about 17.6 trillion USD), still significantly lower than the US market, which has a total market cap of around 67 trillion USD [3] - If A-share market capitalization reaches 150 trillion yuan, it could challenge the 5000-point mark, representing about one-third of the current US market cap [3] Valuation Metrics - As of January 6, the overall A-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 17.95, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is about 1.88, indicating that current valuations are not excessively high compared to historical bull markets [3] - However, when considering the past decade's valuations, the current market valuation is near the upper limit of reasonable valuation [4] Future Earnings Growth - The potential for A-share market indices to rise further depends on the earnings growth of listed companies in 2026 and 2027, with a target growth rate of 10% to 12% [4] - The market has been driven by technology and rare metals sectors, while traditional sectors remain undervalued, suggesting potential for a rebound in these areas [4] Sector Analysis - Few sectors remain at historical valuation lows, with the consumer sector, particularly liquor, being a notable example. Other sectors with P/E ratios below 30% include home appliances, textiles, food, media, pharmaceuticals, and securities, indicating potential for future gains [5] - The 4000-point level, which has historically acted as a resistance, may now serve as a strong support level, potentially marking the beginning of a new bull market [5] Global Market Context - The global stock market may continue its bullish trend in 2026, influenced by loose liquidity conditions, with the potential for A-shares to increase in market capitalization [5] - If the A-share market capitalization exceeds 22 trillion USD, it could challenge the 5000-point level, still representing only a third of the US market cap [5] Liquidity Sources - The current margin financing balance in A-shares is approximately 2.55 trillion yuan, which is about 2.5% of the market's circulating value, indicating room for growth [6] - In a low-interest-rate environment, more deposit funds may flow into the stock market, providing additional liquidity for A-shares [6] Investor Sentiment - The A-share market is not lacking in funds but rather in investor confidence and the perception of profit-making opportunities [7] - A sustained profit-making effect could attract significant new capital into the A-share market, driving further upward momentum [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Li Auto's Q2 financial performance met expectations, with a slight year-on-year revenue decline but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating resilience in the face of market challenges [1][2] - Li Auto reported Q2 revenue of 30.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.7% [1] - The company delivered 111,000 vehicles in Q2, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [1] Group 2 - Net profit for Q2 was 1.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4% but a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 69.6% [1] - The gross margin for Q2 was 20.1%, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Analysts from Guojin Securities highlighted Li Auto's strengths in product development, strategic planning, and management, while noting the current pressure on its fundamentals [2] Group 3 - Haitong International Securities mentioned that Li Auto plans to reduce the number of SKUs and focus on its core models to simplify its product offerings [2] - The upcoming launch of the Li i6 is anticipated to continue the successful single-product strategy, potentially enhancing product competitiveness and value [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to experience upward momentum, benefiting from improved external liquidity narratives, which may lead to a "catch-up" rally [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index showed a rebound after opening lower, with significant movements in stocks like BYD and NIO, while others like ASMPT and SMIC faced declines [1] - Multiple institutions believe that the Hang Seng Tech Index may follow the A-share tech sector and experience a rebound, especially after dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) has seen a net inflow of approximately 5.155 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, reaching a new historical high of 38.074 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased, which may lead to improved global liquidity benefiting the Hong Kong tech sector [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index remains relatively undervalued historically and is sensitive to changes in the US-China interest rate differential, making it likely to benefit from a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account can consider the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core Chinese AI assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the strong performance of the Shanghai silver futures contracts, indicating a potential bullish trend and questioning whether this upward momentum can continue to reach new highs [1] Group 1 - The Shanghai silver futures contracts are showing a strong upward trend, suggesting a recovery phase in the market [1] - There is speculation about the sustainability of this bullish trend and whether it can lead to new record highs in the future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver has strongly broken through the $36 mark, suggesting the initiation of a rebound trend in the market [1] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to nearly 90, which may signal a shift in market dynamics favoring silver [1] - The article highlights two major risks that traders face in the upcoming week, emphasizing the need for strategic positioning to maximize profits [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a significant increase in volatility, which could impact trading strategies [1] - It discusses the importance of monitoring key signals for potential short-covering opportunities in the silver market [1] - The piece emphasizes the necessity for traders to remain vigilant and adaptable in response to market fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a broad-based rally, with nearly 5,000 stocks declining and a trading volume of 170 billion [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a high likelihood of continuing its upward trend, particularly in sectors like liquor and banking, which have yet to see a rebound [3] - There is a divergence in large-cap stocks, with foreign capital remaining cautious, while small-cap stocks have shown significant rebounds [3][5] Group 2 - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, but individual stocks may experience differentiation, especially in the context of a potential reduction in trading volume [5] - The performance of heavyweight stocks will be crucial; if they fail to sustain the index's rise, individual stock rebounds may also come to an end [7] - The market has cleared out many players, making it less likely for them to re-enter quickly, leading to a prolonged upward trend until they start chasing gains [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][27]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a stable performance, with no significant fundamental catalysts. Major liquor companies are implementing inventory control and price stabilization measures, particularly during the traditional off-season post-Spring Festival. Companies like Wuliangye, Jinshiyuan, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are taking actions to maintain prices. Market feedback remains rational and stable, with Jinshiyuan and Fenjiu showing upward momentum and incremental growth [4][6]. - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is at a bottom range, with a general dividend yield exceeding 3%. Compared to other leading sectors, the liquor sector's leading stocks may have a rebound potential. Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [4][6]. - The consumer goods sector is showing a slight recovery in sales post-Spring Festival, although it remains relatively weak overall. The decline in raw material prices, such as milk and sugar, is beneficial for profit margins. The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for consumer goods, recommending companies like Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, and others [6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is entering a traditional off-season, with many manufacturers starting to control inventory and stabilize prices. Recent tracking shows stable prices for Moutai and Wuliangye, with some products from Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao also being temporarily halted. The overall liquor market is expected to remain weak in the short term, but macroeconomic policies may provide a catalyst for recovery [6][11]. - The absolute valuation of liquor stocks is at a bottom range, with a dividend yield above 3%. The leading liquor stocks are expected to have rebound potential, with recommendations for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [4][6]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a slight recovery in sales, although it remains under pressure. The report highlights that the sales performance of Zhongju Gaoxin is improving on a month-on-month basis, despite facing year-on-year pressure due to base effects. The decline in raw material prices is favorable for profit margins, and the report maintains a long-term positive outlook for the sector [6][16]. - Recommended companies in the consumer goods sector include Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Haitian Flavoring [6].