本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：李林芷 梁中华 1、5月经济：外需修复，内需分化 5月，外部冲击减弱，政策和假期效应共同支撑内部需求。2025年5月12日中美发布联合声明，自5月14日 起暂停部分关税，积压商品集中出货和抢出口带动出口反弹。国内生产前半月仍受关税冲击，后半月虽然 冲击减弱，但整体增速仍有小幅回落。国内以旧换新政策、"618"促销季前置叠加五一假期效应，补贴类消 费和服务消费均有改善。投资整体有待提振，制造业投资有待企业信心修复，基建和地产投资仍需政策加 码。 下一阶段，外部仍有不确定性，内需需要政策接续。外需方面，虽然关税局势有所缓和，但欧美制造业 PMI持续震荡，叠加地缘政治变化，外部需求或有一定不确定性。内需方面，以旧换新和促销季前置可能 导致后续需求提前释放，耐用品消费和地产销售都存在向下压力，这需要后续稳增长政策接续。 2、生产：行业分化 生产加速恢复，同比增速仍较高。5月工业增加值同比增长5.8%，较4月的6.1%连续第二个月回落，但仍保 持5%以上的增速。从季调环比看，工业增加值环比增长0.61%，较4月的0.22%回升，且高于往年平均值。 但是，销售状况表现边际回落，工 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the rare earth materials industry and the precious metals market, particularly focusing on the implications of U.S.-China trade relations and export controls on these sectors [1][3][4][7]. Key Points and Arguments Rare Earth Materials - Concerns regarding export controls and terminal demand have intensified following tariff impacts in April, but negotiations in May have alleviated recession expectations, although export controls remain in place [1][4]. - The approval of export licenses by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has improved market sentiment, leading to a rise in rare earth prices, with neodymium oxide reaching a new high of 450,000 yuan [4][8]. - The U.S. administration's acknowledgment of China's irreplaceable position in the rare earth supply chain has reinforced the strategic value of the rare earth sector, reducing concerns over valuation [3][7]. - There is a notable improvement in external demand compared to April and May, with overseas manufacturers expected to significantly replenish their inventories, which will support stable price increases in rare earth materials [8][10]. Precious Metals Market - Recent price increases in precious metals such as platinum, palladium, and silver are attributed to reduced tariff-related risk and a decrease in recession fears, leading to a rebound in these metals [2]. - Gold prices have stabilized above $3,000 per ounce, with diminishing resistance for upward movement as tariff narratives weaken [2]. - Investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks related to gold and magnetic materials are highlighted, as they generally trade at a discount compared to their A-share counterparts [6]. Copper and Aluminum Market - The copper and aluminum markets are currently characterized by strong realities but weak expectations, with notable valuation advantages [5]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, which may lead to a correction in the strong performance of copper and aluminum [5]. Additional Important Insights - The approval process for export licenses typically takes 45 to 60 days, indicating a structured approach to managing export controls [4]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory scrutiny surrounding rare earth exports suggest that while there may be some easing, significant restrictions will likely persist [7][10]. - Recommendations for investment focus on leading companies in the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors, such as Northern Rare Earth and Zhongke Sanhuan, which are expected to benefit from improved orders due to external demand recovery [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, emphasizing the dynamics of the rare earth and precious metals markets amid evolving trade relations and regulatory landscapes.