世易时移。 原标题：保契锐评丨产寿险牌照价值大逆转？ 来源：保契 短短几年的时间，曾经炙手可热的寿险牌照已鲜有人问津，而曾经"门前冷落鞍马稀"的财险公司，价值 却愈发被业内外认可。 9月，产寿险各有一则关于公司股权的新闻。 寿险方面，民生人寿705万股股份于9月25日挂牌拍卖。起拍价1277.95万元，较评估价1825.64万元打了 七折。遗憾的是，如此低价，阿里司法拍卖网仍显示此次拍卖0人报名，再次未能成功拍出。 财险方面，9月17日，国家金融监督管理总局挂网《关于安华农业保险股份有限公司变更股权的批 复》，同意融捷投资控股集团有限公司受让中科恒源科技股份有限公司、陕西佳乐紫光科贸有限公司、 盘锦龙德实业有限公司持有的安华农业险166，000，000股股份。受让后，融捷投资控股集团有限公司 合计持有安华农险346，000，000股股份，持股比例为32.719%。 中国保险业复业始于财险，股神巴菲特亦一直强调其看好的是财险。但在后续的发展进程中，寿险业却 凭借着收益与保障兼具的优势，快速做大规模，以至于无数资本打着向巴菲特学习的名义，却一头扎进 寿险，并通过提升保单收益等方式，将寿险公司打造成名副其实的"现金 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the issuance of long-term bonds in 2025, which is expected to be substantial with an average maturity exceeding 15 years, increasing market pressure [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Pressure from Long-term Bond Issuance** The issuance of long-term bonds is significant, with an average maturity of over 15 years, leading to increased market pressure and limiting the buying capacity of various institutions [1][2][10]. 2. **Impact on City and Rural Commercial Banks** City and rural commercial banks are experiencing reduced funding due to lower deposit rates, which has shifted funds to larger banks and non-bank institutions, limiting their ability to purchase bonds [2][5]. 3. **Insurance Institutions' Shift in Strategy** Insurance institutions are reallocating funds to the stock market in search of higher returns due to a decrease in preset interest rates, resulting in a reduced allocation to long-term bonds [1][5]. 4. **Regulatory Pressure on Large Banks** Large banks are required to conduct stress tests to ensure that their interest rate risk does not exceed 15% of their Tier 1 capital, which limits their ability to absorb long-term bonds [4][6][7]. 5. **Duration Mismatch and Interest Rate Risk** The significant issuance of long-term bonds has led to duration mismatches for large banks, increasing their long-term interest rate risk and limiting their capacity to hold these bonds indefinitely [4][7]. 6. **Short-term Bonds as a Risk Mitigation Strategy** While purchasing short-term bonds can reduce average duration, it does not effectively lower total interest rate risk. The focus should be on total holding size rather than just duration [8]. 7. **Fund Selling Pressure** Funds are the primary sellers of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds due to fee reforms, prior duration extension behaviors, and redemptions of mixed products, which could further release interest rate risk [11]. 8. **Potential Market Issues** If the current market conditions persist, there could be significant issues, particularly with ultra-long bonds, as they concentrate interest rate risk. Solutions include reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds or increasing market demand for long-term products [12]. 9. **Future Issuance Plans** The issuance plans for ultra-long bonds are closely tied to project funding and are unlikely to change despite market absorption capacity issues. Adjustments in issuance pace may occur, but overall supply and maturity structure are expected to remain stable [13]. 10. **Bank Capital Supplementation** Addressing bank capital to manage interest rate risk is a long-term planning issue, with options including ownership increases or issuing secondary bonds, which may further increase market supply [14]. 11. **Central Bank's Role** Direct purchases of ultra-long bonds by the central bank are not seen as a viable solution for managing interest rate risk due to existing liquidity management constraints [15]. 12. **Market Sentiment** The bond market should not be viewed as simply bullish or bearish; rather, it should be assessed based on the participation of configuration plates. Current conditions suggest a challenging environment for long-term bonds [16]. 13. **Configuration Value of Ultra-long Bonds** The configuration value of ultra-long bonds is uncertain, particularly for 30-year bonds, as there is no clear demand for them at present [17]. 14. **Asset-Liability Gap Concerns** Recent announcements regarding significant repurchase operations indicate banks' attempts to stabilize metrics, but this may not lead to a decrease in deposit rates [18]. 15. **Investment Strategy Adjustments** The recommended investment strategy is to maintain low leverage and adopt a barbell structure, focusing on short-term instruments and specific mid-term bonds while being cautious with long-term positions [19]. Other Important Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring total holding sizes and the implications of regulatory requirements on banks' bond purchasing strategies, emphasizing a cautious approach in the current market environment [1][4][6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Insurance funds have significantly increased their investments in the stock market, with over 640 billion yuan entering the market in the first half of the year, marking a historical high and surpassing the total new investment for the previous year [1][3][9]. Group 1: Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, insurance funds added over 640 billion yuan to the stock market, with 390 billion yuan in Q1 and 250 billion yuan in Q2 [1][9]. - The stock investment balance of insurance funds reached 3.07 trillion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of total assets, the highest since 2022 [4][8]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high of 3787.98 points [2][3]. Group 2: Increased Activity in Stock Purchases - There has been a notable wave of stock purchases by insurance funds, with 30 instances of shareholding increases recorded this year, second only to 62 instances in 2015 [5][15]. - The investment focus has shifted towards high-dividend sectors, particularly in the banking and consumption sectors, with significant activity in Hong Kong-listed banks [16][17]. Group 3: Reasons for Increased Investment - The increase in stock market investment by insurance funds is attributed to the need for stable returns to match long-term liabilities, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [20][22]. - Regulatory changes have facilitated this trend, allowing insurance companies to allocate more funds to equity investments [24][25]. - The shift in investment strategy is also influenced by the need to mitigate risks associated with traditional fixed-income assets, which have seen declining returns [21][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to continue increasing its equity investments, with a focus on sectors that provide stable cash flows and dividends [20][22]. - The ongoing regulatory support and the need for better asset-liability matching will likely sustain this trend in the coming years [24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for insurance companies, leading overseas insurers to extend bond durations and increase equity allocations. In the short term, China's bond market shows a slight shortage of long-term supply, and the current liability structure of insurers is sensitive to net assets, which poses some resistance to increasing equity allocations. However, in the medium to long term, with ongoing policy support for insurance capital market entry and improvements in capital market infrastructure, the willingness and ability of insurers to allocate equity will gradually increase, alleviating investment pressure [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Impact of Interest Rates on Insurance Companies - The valuation of A-share listed insurance companies is generally aligned with interest rates. Since 2011, the valuation of insurance companies has maintained a consistent relationship with bond yields, with only a few exceptions during specific periods [17][19]. - The decline in interest rates can lead to increased risks of interest spread losses due to duration mismatches, negatively impacting net assets and the intrinsic value of insurance companies [6][24]. Overseas Insurance Asset Allocation Strategies - U.S. insurers have significantly increased their equity allocations from 9.9% in 1980 to 30.8% in 2021, making equities the second-largest asset class after bonds. Additionally, the duration of bonds held by U.S. insurers has been extended, with the proportion of bonds with a remaining term of over 20 years increasing by 4.8 percentage points since 1997 [7][44][57]. - Japanese insurers have also extended bond durations and increased overseas asset allocations, with the overseas allocation rising from 12.8% in 2008 to 25% in 2023 [68]. - South Korean insurers have gradually increased overseas asset allocations from 2.8% in 1999 to 11.6% in 2022, while the bond proportion has decreased from 57.9% in 2013 to 46.2% in 2022 [8][77]. Policy Support for Equity Allocation - Policies encouraging long-term capital market entry are being implemented, aiming to enhance the willingness and ability of insurers to allocate equity. The goal is to have 30% of new insurance premiums invested in the stock market annually, which could potentially increase equity allocation by approximately 295.7 billion yuan if the proportion is adjusted to 60% [9][10][9].