——煤焦整体走势偏强，但仍需警惕负反馈风险 张泫（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月17日 南华期货煤焦产业周报 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前焦煤现货市场呈现资源偏紧格局。节前坑口存在超卖行为，上游库存压力普遍较轻，矿方挺价意愿强 烈。口岸蒙煤供应同步趋紧，国庆期间通关作业暂停，且监管区库存处于偏低水平。叠加市场对即将召开的 四中全会有一定政策预期，多重因素共同为焦煤盘面价格构筑了较强的底部支撑。不过，近期下游成材供需 矛盾边际恶化，钢厂盈利承压，黑色呈现出明显的旺季不旺特征，焦煤反弹空间受限，呈现下有支撑，上有 负反馈风险压制的特征。本轮煤焦价格的反弹高度与持续性，最终取决于下游钢材端的供需平衡表能否实 现"软着陆"。理想路径是钢厂基于利润收缩的预判，通过提前检修减产，主动缓和钢材库存压力，从而为产业 链赢得良性上涨空间。反之，若钢厂生产调节滞后，终端需求萎缩将加剧成材库存矛盾，触发黑色产业链负 反馈风险，进而反向制约煤价反弹高度。 热卷总库存 source： 南华研究 钢联 万吨 2021 2022 2023 20 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term fundamental improvements support the coal price to run strongly, but price fluctuations remain severe, and cautious participation is recommended [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Conditions - Last week, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated strongly, with intense long - short games. Coking coal spot prices maintained a strong trend. On Friday, coke enterprises started the 6th round of coke price increase, but mainstream steel mills have not responded [3] - Recently, market news said that from August 16th to 25th, Tangshan independent steel rolling enterprises may be shut down at any time according to weather conditions, and must be shut down from August 25th to September 3rd. If the measures are implemented, the daily output of 35 profile steel enterprises in Tangshan will be affected by about 90,000 tons [3] Supply - side Situation - The verification of coal mine over - production in Shanxi is being promoted in depth. Many coal mines have spontaneously reduced production. Combined with the approaching military parade in September and the severe safety supervision situation, short - term coal mine production increase is limited [4] - The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved. Currently, the raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 4.765 million tons, a decrease of 2.245 million tons from the high in June; the clean coal inventory is 2.457 million tons, a decrease of 2.543 million tons from the high in June [4] Demand - side Situation - This week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills have slowed down. After the available days of coking coal inventory in factories rebounded from a low level, they tended to be stable. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 86,200 tons compared with the same period last year [4] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace startup rate of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening the spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, pressuring coking profits. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. - This week, iron ore prices rebounded strongly, shrinking the immediate steel profits, but the steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little intention to voluntarily reduce hot metal production, resulting in strong procurement demand for coking coal and coke. - In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the long - term, the sharp rise in furnace materials poses a potential threat to steel mill profitability, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined significantly, and inventory accumulation in Tangshan has accelerated, which may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - In terms of operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 850 - 1130, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1450 - 1650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13%. [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when entering the market at 1650 - 1700 and 50% at 1700 - 1750. [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased by 897 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 293 tons, coking coal decreased by 500 hands, and silicon manganese decreased by 1177 sheets. - **Increase in Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron increased by 200 sheets. - **No Change in Inventory**: The inventory of iron ore and coke remained unchanged. [3] 3.4 Core Contradiction - Short - term: The combination of speculative and rigid demand supports the prices of coking coal and coke, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. - Long - term: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not last. Steel billet export and inventory issues may trigger negative feedback. [4] 3.5利多解读 - The "Supply - side 2.0" has affected market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a per - ton profit of over 100, and hot metal production in July is unlikely to decrease. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [5] 3.6利空解读 - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production ahead of schedule. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal has increased, leading to greater pressure on future arrivals at ports. [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: The spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads have shown various changes. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 0.5 compared to the previous day and 6.5 compared to the previous week. - **Coke**: Similar price, basis, and spread changes are observed. The coke 09 - 01 spread decreased by 6 compared to the previous day and 7 compared to the previous week. - **Other Ratios**: The coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio also changed. [6]