Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices by over 18% on the announcement day [1] - Copper ore and cathode copper have been exempted from tariffs, which was unexpected by the market, weakening previous expectations of increased domestic copper production and decreased demand for non-American copper [1] - The exemption is expected to be bullish for copper prices from a global supply-demand perspective, but a decrease in U.S. copper imports is anticipated in the second half of the year, potentially increasing non-American copper supply and negatively impacting LME and SHFE copper prices [1] Group 2 - Current global market risk appetite is high, with positive performance in both domestic and international equity markets, which is bullish for copper prices [2] - Recent weak U.S. non-farm data and lower-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI have raised expectations of a weakening U.S. economy, leading to increased predictions of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Domestic macroeconomic conditions have improved, with a general upward trend in pricing for domestic commodities, although the market has shown signs of cooling towards the end of July [2] Group 3 - The current copper market is characterized by a strong domestic performance and weak external conditions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory depletion slowing and overseas copper inventory accumulating at high levels [2] - The exclusion of refined copper and copper ore from U.S. tariffs has led to a convergence of LME and COMEX copper price differentials to normal levels, reducing the tariff's impact on copper prices [3] - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a 90-day extension of tariff policies, contributing to improved trade relations and potentially supporting copper price trends [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products, including fats and oils, protein meals, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and logs, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks for each product [1][4][5]. - Overall, most products are expected to show a trend of either fluctuating or fluctuating weakly, with fats and oils likely to continue weakening due to the resonance of macro and industrial factors [1]. 3. Summary Grouped by Related Catalogs 3.1 Quotes and Views - **Fats and Oils**: Due to the ease of the Middle - East situation, the sharp decline in crude oil prices, and favorable weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major fats and oils generally weakened. In the short term, fats and oils may continue to weaken [1][2][4]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, the inspection volume of US soybean exports was lower than expected, but the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was also lower than expected. Domestically, the supply and demand of soybean meal both increased, while the supply and demand of rapeseed meal were both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: The price of corn in different regions showed different trends. In the short term, long - position holders took profits, leading to a large decline in the market. In the medium term, based on the expected production - demand gap, the driving force is still upward, but the potential negative impact of import auctions should be noted [6][7]. - **Hogs**: In the short term, the proportion of large - hog slaughter increased, and the average slaughter weight continued to decline. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level. The pig price is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the external shock ended, the trading focus may return to the fundamentals. The supply has an expected increase, while the demand has an expected decrease. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market followed the sharp decline in crude oil. The external situation may be temporarily controllable, but the market correction may not be over yet [12]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is expected to increase in production in 25/26. The demand side has entered the off - season. The cotton price pulled up at the end of the session, filling the gap. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market is weak, while the domestic market is strong. In the long term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season. In the short term, the downward space is limited [14]. - **Pulp**: After a sharp rise and then a sharp fall, the supply - demand weakness is the core. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Logs**: As the delivery approaches, the fluctuation intensifies. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the bottom of the market has support [16][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions that there are variety data monitoring sections for fats and oils, corn/starch, hogs, cotton/yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data details are provided [19][50][69][109][122][137][156].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]