中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-25 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 宏观和产业共振，油脂或继续走弱 油脂：宏观与产业共振，油脂或继续走弱 蛋⽩粕：多空并存盘面震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：多头获利，盘面跌幅较大 ⽣猪：惜售博弈需求，猪价震荡 橡㬵：外部冲击告一段落，胶价出现回调 合成橡㬵：方向不明确，区间震荡 纸浆：暴涨之后又迎暴跌，纸浆供需弱势是核心 棉花：棉价尾盘拉升，回补缺口 ⽩糖：外弱内强 原⽊：交割临近，波动加剧 【异动品种】 油脂观点：宏观与产业共振，油脂或继续⾛弱 逻辑：因中东紧张局势缓解、原油价格大幅下跌及美豆产区天气条件良好，周一 美豆类下跌，昨日国内三大油脂普遍走弱。从宏观环境看，以伊停火、中东局势 缓解，市场避险情绪降温，美联储官员呼吁美联储尽快考虑降息，周一美元走 弱、原油价格大幅下跌。从产业端看，EPA提案带来的利多情绪已反应，且该政 策后期仍存一定变数。美豆种植临近尾声，目前美豆长势良好，未来2周美豆产 区降水预期基本正常，国内进口大豆到港量较大，国内豆油库存持续回升。棕油 方面，马棕6月产量环增幅度预期有限，SPPOMA数据显示6月1-20日马棕产量环比 2.5% ...

| CTECHER | 日度黄路参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 业分格号:F02517 | | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 股指 | 地缘冲突加剧,结合期权工具对冲不确定性。 | 看零 | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | | 局势略有缓和,金价短期或重返震荡;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实 | 賃金 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | T 自银 | 短期料进入震荡走势。 | 農汤 | 近期市场风险偏好有所下滑,而下游需求进入淡季,铜价走高后 | | | | | | | 价格存在回调风险。 | 近期国内电解铝库存持续下滑,挤仓风险仍存,铝价维持偏强运 | 看多 | | | | | | | | 门。 | 氧化铝现货价格相对稳定,而期货价格偏弱运行,期货贴水明 | | | | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with strategic shifts in the liquor sector and innovation in the food segment to meet diverse consumer demands [2][8]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.88%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index fell by 1.45% during the week of June 2-6, 2025 [1]. - The top five gaining stocks in the food and beverage sector included Junyao Health, *ST Spring, Miaokelando, Youyou Food, and Pinwo Food [1]. Group 2: Liquor Sector Insights - Liquor companies are focusing on strategic transformations and high-quality development, particularly targeting younger consumers [2]. - The white liquor market is facing price pressures during the "618" promotional period, leading some merchants to adapt by joining e-commerce platforms to remain competitive [8]. - The white liquor industry is experiencing market contraction and polarization, with revenue and profit growth slowing down, prompting companies to optimize their supply chains [9]. Group 3: Food and Beverage Innovations - Companies are innovating to cater to consumer preferences for emotional value, cost-effectiveness, and health, with new product launches in the beverage sector [2]. - Notable product launches include Dongpeng Beverage's 1L fruit tea targeting lower-tier markets and Chengde Lulule's herbal drink series [2]. - The upcoming beverage season is expected to boost interest in the beer, soft drink, and snack segments [2]. Group 4: Regulatory and Macro Events - California's legislature has passed a bill to ban ultra-processed foods in schools, highlighting growing concerns over health impacts associated with such products [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture reported that 70.05 million acres of summer wheat have been harvested, with a focus on ensuring a successful grain harvest [5]. Group 5: Company Developments - Guizhou Moutai launched a new series of products in Japan, emphasizing cultural exchange and local elements in its branding [11]. - Yibin Bank appointed a new president, who has a strong background in the liquor industry, indicating potential synergies between banking and beverage sectors [12].