晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 宏观驱动减弱 逢高空配为主 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 2 月 2 日 逻辑：宏观方面，美联储下任主席沃什偏鹰派，引发贵金属以及有色商品出现阶段性回落； 国内方面，1 月份 PMI 数据再度回落至荣枯线以下，国内经济复苏呈现脉冲式特征，扩大内需 政策仍需继续发力。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：当前外矿发运整体仍处于发运淡季，本期周度发运量小幅环比回升，根据季节 性规律，在 2 月中旬之前，外矿发运将保持环比走弱态势，但当前外矿发运水平高于近五年同 期且远高于去年同期水平，主因是外矿发运稳定性较高且去年同期澳洲受飓风影响导致发运基 数偏低；国产矿供给同样处于淡季，整体看，供给端步入季节性环比收缩阶段，但供给端支撑 力度提升则需要出现超预期下滑。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求小幅回落但高于去年同期，主因是国内钢厂检修后常规复产增多，但 钢材价格走弱导致钢厂利润水平环比回落，且钢厂盈利水平低于去年同期，终端需求处于季节 性淡季，预计短期铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - narrative is positive, the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, there is restocking demand for iron ore, and supply is entering the off - season, but the price increase is limited by industrial chain profits. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - The price will operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore will be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3] - The strategy is range operation and covered call options [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Macro - aspect - China's monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities, and the short - term domestic macro - narrative is positive. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage, and industrial chain prices maintain a narrow - fluctuation trend. There is a "seesaw" effect between the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and black - series sectors, and short - term market risk - preference changes need attention [1] Price Recovery Reasons for Black - series - The inventory pressure at the finished - product end has been continuously relieved, the industrial chain valuation has rebounded, the spot price of iron ore strongly supports the futures market. Steel mills have officially entered the restocking cycle, and restocking demand may support prices to remain relatively strong [1] Supply - Mainstream mines have a phased end - of - year shipping rush. The weekly shipping volume has increased month - on - month. After the shipping rush, foreign - ore shipping will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic - ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, supply - side support is entering a relatively strong stage [1] Demand - Domestic demand has stabilized and slightly increased. The profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. Overall, domestic steel - mill demand is expected to rise in the short term, and the pre - holiday restocking cycle is about to start, with restocking demand expected to continue to be released [1] Inventory - The imported inventory of steel mills has increased month - on - month, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar goods by steel mills will start. Port inventory has continued to accumulate due to the relatively high arrival volume, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in December [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is relatively weak, and short - term attention should be paid to domestic macro - policy increments. The price of iron ore will fluctuate within a range, and the strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - The black - series carbon elements were relatively strong yesterday, the price of finished products stabilized, while the iron ore price was relatively weak, and the sentiment of the black - series market remained weak [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipment decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia decreased significantly, while that in Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, still supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Shandong. The daily average pig iron output in this period was 2.4095 million tons (month - on - month - 0.59), basically the same as the average level in August. High demand still supported the iron ore price to some extent [4]. Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill decreased slightly month - on - month, and the daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills decreased due to production cuts. Steel mills were about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The port inventory continued to accumulate month - on - month due to the continuous increase in arrival volume [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The styrene market shows a “near - strong, far - weak” pattern. The supply has increased slightly, and the terminal demand has been released after the trade war ended. The profit of the industrial chain has tilted towards the styrene segment. The futures price has risen due to short - term factors such as macro - demand side benefits and early maintenance of large factories. The follow - up needs to focus on the implementation of new terminal orders after the tariff reduction [4]. - The pure benzene supply - demand pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand remains unchanged, and the fundamentals are weak. The start - up rate of pure benzene devices has increased, the downstream demand has shown a slight recovery but the weekly supply - demand gap is still expanding, the implicit inventory is high, and the demand side is under continuous pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price**: On May 14th, the styrene main contract closed up 4.51% at 7,746 yuan/ton, with a basis of 244 yuan/ton (+129 yuan/ton). The Brent crude oil main contract closed at $63.7 per barrel (+$1.7 per barrel), the WTI crude oil main contract closed at $66.6 per barrel (+$1.6 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,205 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: The styrene sample factory inventory was 23.2 tons (+2.2 tons), a month - on - month increase of 10.3%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 6.85 tons (-1.67 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%. The styrene port inventory continued to decline, and the spot liquidity tightened [2]. - **Supply**: The styrene maintenance devices gradually resumed production, with an expected increase in supply. Affected by the restart of some devices, the weekly styrene output increased by 2.43% month - on - month to 33.07 tons (+0.78 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 72.2% (+1.7%) [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of downstream 3S varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 47.4% (-1.35%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 69.0% (+1.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 57.4% (-1.3%). Overall, the downstream demand weakened [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: From May 13th to 14th, the styrene futures main contract rose 2.60%, the spot price rose 2.20%, and the basis rose 112.17%. The pure benzene prices in East China, South Korea FOB, the United States FOB, and China CFR all increased to varying degrees. The Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also rose, while the naphtha price remained unchanged [6]. - **Inventory**: From May 2nd to 9th, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 19.6% to 6.9 tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory increased by 10.3% to 23.2 tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory remained unchanged at 12.0 tons [7]. - **Start - up Rate**: From May 2nd to 9th, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and phenol among pure benzene downstream increased, while those of caprolactam and aniline decreased. Among styrene downstream, the ABS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.86%, while the EPS and PS capacity utilization rates decreased [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the measures for imposing additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States starting from 12:01 on May 14th [9]. - The API crude oil inventory in the United States for the week ending May 9th was 4.287 million barrels, compared with an expected -1.96 million barrels and a previous value of -4.494 million barrels [9]. - Trump called on Powell again to cut interest rates [9]. - Trump said he might relax or even completely lift sanctions on Syria [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price of pure benzene, the price of styrene, the styrene - pure benzene price difference, the import and domestic production costs of pure benzene for SM, the inventory of styrene ports and factories, the inventory of pure benzene ports, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of downstream products such as ABS, PS, EPS, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][17][18]