2 0 2 5 / 9 / 1 作者：李文涛 从业资格证号：F3050524 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 研究联系方式：18616861246 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 研究助理：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 联系方式：13752670838 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 核心观点 | 中性 | 上周盘面震荡下行。铁水小幅回落，同比仍为正增长，预计下周铁水环比显著回落，上周螺纹产量明显 回升，大幅累库，表观需求回升，热卷产量增小幅下降，小幅累库，表需有所下降，五品种成材总产量 环比小幅增加，整体累库，需求小幅回升。估值来看，长流程钢厂利润持续收窄，短流程钢厂谷电利润 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 略有亏损，焦炭第八轮提涨落空，市场反馈后期有提降预期。关注后续铁水变动情况以及出口恢复情况。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 月差结构为contango，持续呈反套趋势，市场反馈后期螺纹仓单压力较大，需关注交割情况。 | | 钢厂利润 | 偏空 | 本周247家钢铁企业盈利率为63.64%，环比继续小幅回落。 | | 废钢 | 中性 | 根据测算， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].