Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is relatively weak, and short - term attention should be paid to domestic macro - policy increments. The price of iron ore will fluctuate within a range, and the strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - The black - series carbon elements were relatively strong yesterday, the price of finished products stabilized, while the iron ore price was relatively weak, and the sentiment of the black - series market remained weak [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipment decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia decreased significantly, while that in Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, still supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Shandong. The daily average pig iron output in this period was 2.4095 million tons (month - on - month - 0.59), basically the same as the average level in August. High demand still supported the iron ore price to some extent [4]. Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill decreased slightly month - on - month, and the daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills decreased due to production cuts. Steel mills were about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The port inventory continued to accumulate month - on - month due to the continuous increase in arrival volume [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Bearish [3] - Scrap steel: Neutral [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market fluctuated downward. Hot metal production decreased slightly but remained in positive year-on-year growth. It is expected that hot metal production will decline significantly next week. Last week, rebar production increased significantly, inventory accumulated substantially, and apparent demand recovered. Hot-rolled coil production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated marginally, and apparent demand declined. The total output of five finished steel products increased slightly week-on-week, inventory accumulated overall, and demand recovered slightly. In terms of valuation, the profits of long-process steel mills continued to narrow, and short-process steel mills had a slight loss during off-peak hours. The eighth round of coke price increase failed, and the market reported expectations of a price cut in the future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in hot metal production and the recovery of exports. The month spread structure is in contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market reported that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the future, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, continuing to decline slightly week-on-week. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China is 158 yuan/ton during peak hours and 30 yuan/ton during off-peak hours. The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory is still at a low level. The billet inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - As of August 29, 2025, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.62 million tons week-on-week, and continued positive year-on-year growth. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 83.2%, a slight decrease week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 56.54%. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, a slight decrease week-on-week [10]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties was 8.8461 million tons, an increase of 0.0655 million tons from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.2056 million tons, an increase of 0.0591 million tons week-on-week; hot-rolled coil output was 3.2474 million tons, a decrease of 0.005 million tons week-on-week. Cold-rolled output increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, both significantly higher than the historical average [12]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week was 8.5777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0478 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.0421 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0941 million tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.2072 million tons, a decrease of 0.0055 million tons week-on-week [31][34]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly week-on-week. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while that in the south increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in East China continued to decline slightly and was significantly lower than the same period last year [52]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 555,200 tons, a slight increase week-on-week and still higher than the same period last year. The mainstream warehouse billet inventory was 1.3301 million tons, an increase week-on-week and slightly lower than the same period [68]. Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market reported that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased significantly and were at a low level compared to the same period in history [119]. - The table shows the data for each month in 2025, including initial steel mill inventory, initial social inventory, pig iron output, crude steel output, import volume, export volume, total consumption, domestic production-demand balance, ending steel mill inventory, ending social inventory, surplus, year-on-year output growth, year-on-year consumption growth, cumulative year-on-year output growth, and cumulative year-on-year consumption growth [120].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].