Core Viewpoint - The banking industry in China has shown resilience and stability in the first half of the year, with key indicators such as non-performing loan ratio, provision coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio remaining stable and improving, indicating a strong capacity to resist risks and support the real economy [1][8]. Group 1: Banking Industry Performance - As of mid-year, total assets of banking financial institutions reached 467.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with large commercial banks holding 204.2 trillion yuan, up 10.4% [1]. - The non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, down 0.02 percentage points [8]. Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The balance of inclusive micro and small enterprise loans reached 36 trillion yuan, growing by 12.3% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans increased to 13.9 trillion yuan, with an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [3][4]. - Large commercial banks accounted for over 16 trillion yuan of the inclusive micro and small enterprise loans, with their share increasing by 2.34 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [4]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The cost-to-income ratio for commercial banks was 30.2%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from the previous year, while the proportion of non-interest income rose to 25.75%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points [6]. - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter [6]. Group 4: Credit Risk Management - The banking sector has proactively managed credit risks, increasing provisions by 1.1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 579 billion yuan more than the previous year, and disposed of 1.5 trillion yuan of non-performing assets, an increase of 1.236 trillion yuan year-on-year [8]. - Capital adequacy ratios improved, with the overall capital adequacy ratio at 15.58%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Group 5: Capital Expansion - Since the beginning of the year, the issuance of tier-2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds by commercial banks has exceeded 1 trillion yuan [9]. - Major banks such as Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of Communications have issued total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) non-capital bonds, with total issuance amounts of 80 billion yuan, 80 billion yuan, and 70 billion yuan respectively [9].

"当前贷款期限提升有助于为实体经济高质量发展提供稳定的资金支持。"有业内人士指出，短期贷款主 要用于企业日常运行和资金周转，中长期贷款更多用于投资和扩大再生产。 近年来，央行持续引导金融机构优化信贷期限结构，增加中长期贷款投放。二季度货政报告显示，近十 年来我国人民币中长期贷款占比上升了近11个百分点，制造业中长期贷款增速持续快于全部贷款增速， 对于进一步挖掘内部需求，稳住投资消费意愿提供了有效保障。 与此同时，贷款主体中企业贷款占比也稳步上升。二季度货政报告显示，在每年新增贷款中，企(事)业 单位贷款占比持续上升。居民贷款以房贷为主，近年来我国房地产市场深度调整，居民贷款购房需求减 弱，但各类新的增长动能不断涌现，相应的企业贷款需求稳步增加。这种结构转变也是我国经济增长动 能和经济增长模式转换的体现。 此外，人民银行持续支持优化融资结构，有效促进提高直接融资占比。二季度货政报告还显示，企业债 券、政府债券和非金融企业境内股票融资等直接融资在社会融资规模中的占比相较2018年末提升了4.4 个百分点。 8月15日，央行发布二季度《货币政策执行报告》(以下简称"货政报告")。在本期报告中，央行设置了4 篇专栏内 ...

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. [2][4][35] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly this week. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. [4] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden from July 27th to 30th to hold economic and trade talks with the US. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (for Comment)", aiming to improve the standards for identifying low - price dumping and regulate market price order. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of promoting large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - ins. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential communities across the country started renovation, and 6 regions had a start - up rate of over 80%. The national plan for 2025 is to start renovating 25,000 old urban residential communities. - There were multiple price adjustment announcements for coke in different markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan this week. [6][7] 3. Fundamental Analysis - The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. [2] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [35]

尽管"内卷式"竞争表现各异，但其主要涉及企业和地方政府两类行为主体，治理的问题也具有共性。 中新社北京7月27日电 (记者 刘亮)一段时间以来，中国多部门、多行业接连释放整治"内卷式"竞争的信 号。透过多方表态，可洞见中国整治"内卷式"竞争的动向。 其一，整治"内卷式"竞争的号角越吹越广。 近来，中央多部门和多地政府在整治"内卷式"竞争上动作频频，行业协会也接连发声，倡议抵制"内卷 式"竞争。 从范围上看，行业领域有所扩大。此前市场关注较高的有光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车，目前关注热度已 蔓延至电商平台、外卖行业、产品质量等领域。例如，近期市场监管部门就"补贴大战"问题约谈多家外 卖平台；针对产品质量问题，进一步曝光了以"低质"产品破坏市场公平竞争秩序的企业违法行为。 其二，整治"内卷式"竞争的议题日益聚焦。 行业方面，整治"内卷式"竞争的方向主要聚焦在行业内的无序竞争、严重的同质化竞争、低价格竞争问 题。地方政府方面，招商引资存在地方保护倾向，实施不公平非普惠的优惠政策，导致无序竞争；盲目 上马项目，导致重复建设和生产过剩等问题。 其三，整治"内卷式"竞争的政策机制日臻完善。 专家指出，"内卷式"竞争带来的问题 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For both short - term, medium - term, and intraday, the view on both coking coal (JM 2509) and coke (J 2509) is to take a bullish approach [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: Since early June, there have been news of safety and environmental production cuts in coal mines. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the expectation of anti - involution in the domestic coal industry has been fermenting. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association and some enterprises have also held meetings to address involution - style competition, highlighting the current imbalance in coal supply and demand. Under the policy of "addressing involution - style competition", the long - term fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, driving up futures prices [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the first round of price increase for coke spot was implemented on the 17th, the second round of price increase started on the 21st, and the futures market has improved the spot market sentiment. The commencement of the 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project will boost the terminal demand for cement and steel in China. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of the anti - involution theme, the overall market sentiment for coke is optimistic, and the main contract remains strong [6].

Group 1 - The regulatory authorities are intensifying efforts to address "involution" competition, emphasizing the need for orderly competition and the exit of outdated production capacity [1][4] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting highlighted the importance of optimizing supply chains and improving product quality, which may lead to a more favorable market environment for industries like steel and non-ferrous metals [1][4] - The focus on regulating "involution" competition is expected to stimulate market enthusiasm, particularly in the black series commodities sector, which may see a new upward trend [1][2] Group 2 - The domestic coke market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics due to regulatory measures aimed at optimizing supply [2] - China Xuyang Group, the largest independent coke producer, reported a revenue of 17.642 billion yuan from its coke business in 2024, despite being in a down cycle [2] - Xuyang Group's production capacity reached 23.8 million tons in 2024, with plans to increase annual capacity to 30 million tons, indicating a strategic focus on quality and advanced production [2][3] Group 3 - Xuyang Group's business scale and profitability are expected to recover if the overall market environment for black series commodities improves, enhancing the visibility and certainty of the company's growth [3] - The company has been actively repurchasing its shares, spending over 116 million HKD to buy back 46.421 million shares since late May, indicating management's confidence in future business recovery [3] - The combination of improving fundamentals and increased share buybacks may lead to a stronger stock price performance for Xuyang Group, encouraging a more positive investor sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement measures to stabilize employment and the economy by the end of June, which are part of a broader strategy to respond to external environmental changes and align with central government directives [1][2] - Key initiatives include supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [1][2] - The NDRC has allocated nearly 500 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support major projects, including infrastructure and urban development, with a complete project list expected by the end of June [2][3] Group 2 - The NDRC aims to enhance funding efficiency by establishing a direct and rapid mechanism for special long-term bond funds and implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates [3] - There is a focus on addressing "involution" in competition, where companies engage in unhealthy practices such as selling below cost, which distorts market mechanisms and disrupts fair competition [3] - The NDRC will work with relevant departments to promote healthy industrial development through innovation, local constraints, optimizing industrial layout, and strengthening market regulation [3][4] Group 3 - The NDRC is set to expand low-altitude economic applications, including low-altitude tourism and consumer drones, while ensuring safety and risk control [4] - The initiative will involve collaboration with local governments and industry management to regulate and promote orderly development in the low-altitude sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing a series of measures aimed at stabilizing employment and the economy, with most initiatives expected to be in place by the end of June. These measures are part of a broader strategy to respond to external environmental changes and to fulfill the decisions made by the central government [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The NDRC's initiatives include support for employment, stabilization of foreign trade, promotion of consumption, effective investment expansion, and the creation of a stable development environment [1][2]. - The "Two Heavy" policies focus on major strategic implementations and key area security capability construction, with nearly 500 billion yuan allocated for long-term special bonds to support significant projects [2][3]. - The "Two New" policies involve the replacement of consumer goods and large-scale equipment updates, with over 160 billion yuan allocated for the first two batches of funding, and an additional 140 billion yuan expected [2][3]. Group 2: Funding Efficiency and Market Regulation - The NDRC aims to improve funding efficiency by establishing a direct and rapid mechanism for special bond funds and implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates [3]. - There is a focus on addressing "involution" in competition, where companies engage in unhealthy practices such as selling below cost, which distorts market mechanisms and disrupts fair competition [3]. - The NDRC plans to enhance market regulation, promote industrial transformation, and eliminate local protectionism to ensure a healthy industrial development environment [3]. Group 3: Low-altitude Economy Development - The NDRC is working with relevant departments to expand low-altitude economic applications, including low-altitude tourism and consumer drones, while ensuring safety and risk control [4]. - The initiative includes strengthening safety governance and holding local governments and industry management accountable for regulatory compliance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is focused on stabilizing employment and the economy through the implementation of various policies and measures, including the promotion of the Private Economy Promotion Law and addressing issues related to "involution" in competition [1][3][4]. Group 1: Employment and Economic Stability - The NDRC plans to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and introduce new measures to promote high-quality development, with most initiatives expected to be in place by the end of June [1]. - The NDRC will maintain a proactive approach to policy research and reserve, ensuring timely implementation of necessary measures [1]. Group 2: Investment and Foreign Capital - The NDRC aims to enhance foreign investment confidence by revising the encouraged foreign investment industry catalog and developing policies to support reinvestment by foreign enterprises [2]. - The commission will expedite the implementation of significant foreign investment projects and continue to provide favorable conditions for multinational companies operating in China [2]. Group 3: Addressing Involution in Competition - The NDRC acknowledges the structural issues arising from the transformation of traditional industries and the emergence of new industries, which have distorted market mechanisms and disrupted fair competition [3]. - The commission will implement targeted measures to address these structural contradictions and promote healthy industrial development and quality upgrades [3]. Group 4: Implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law - The Private Economy Promotion Law took effect on May 20, with the NDRC focusing on legal promotion, policy implementation, and addressing concerns of private enterprises [4]. - The NDRC has planned 53 policy measures across seven areas to support the law's implementation, including enhancing the social credit system and addressing issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises [4].