Market Performance - The energy storage and wind power sectors have performed relatively well, achieving positive excess returns compared to industry indices, while the photovoltaic and grid equipment sectors have underperformed [1][2] - The energy storage sector benefits from ongoing industry prosperity and rapid growth in shipment volumes, significantly outperforming industry benchmarks [2] - The wind power sector's bidding market has begun to transmit its prosperity to the revenue side of industry chain companies, leading to a noticeable recovery in their performance [2] Industry Recovery - The photovoltaic sector's performance has bottomed out and is beginning to recover, while the wind and energy storage sectors show an upward trend in their fundamentals [2] - The photovoltaic supply chain, including silicon materials, silicon wafers, and integrated components, is gradually recovering, although auxiliary materials are under pressure [3] - The domestic photovoltaic demand is expected to surge in the first half of 2025 due to the implementation of relevant policies, stabilizing industry prices [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in expansion pace due to the enforcement of policies aimed at curbing "involution" competition, leading to an ongoing optimization of the supply-demand structure [2][3] - The wind power sector is witnessing a clear recovery, with revenue growth driven by the transmission of high bidding market conditions to the income side of the industry chain [4][5] Grid Equipment Sector - The grid equipment sector continues to show stable growth, benefiting from a long-term uptrend in global grid investment [6] - The demand for grid equipment is increasing due to the rapid growth of wind and photovoltaic industries, necessitating greater investment in grid infrastructure [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to July [2][3] - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, showing continued strength in these sectors [3] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output prices rose to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in market price levels [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from July, indicating continued expansion [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, reflecting a significant recovery [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from July, due to adverse weather conditions [6] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectations index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from July, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing firms [4] - The business activity expectations index for the service sector was 57.0%, indicating optimism about future market developments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry in China has shown resilience and stability in the first half of the year, with key indicators such as non-performing loan ratio, provision coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio remaining stable and improving, indicating a strong capacity to resist risks and support the real economy [1][8]. Group 1: Banking Industry Performance - As of mid-year, total assets of banking financial institutions reached 467.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with large commercial banks holding 204.2 trillion yuan, up 10.4% [1]. - The non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, down 0.02 percentage points [8]. Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The balance of inclusive micro and small enterprise loans reached 36 trillion yuan, growing by 12.3% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans increased to 13.9 trillion yuan, with an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [3][4]. - Large commercial banks accounted for over 16 trillion yuan of the inclusive micro and small enterprise loans, with their share increasing by 2.34 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [4]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The cost-to-income ratio for commercial banks was 30.2%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from the previous year, while the proportion of non-interest income rose to 25.75%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points [6]. - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter [6]. Group 4: Credit Risk Management - The banking sector has proactively managed credit risks, increasing provisions by 1.1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 579 billion yuan more than the previous year, and disposed of 1.5 trillion yuan of non-performing assets, an increase of 1.236 trillion yuan year-on-year [8]. - Capital adequacy ratios improved, with the overall capital adequacy ratio at 15.58%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Group 5: Capital Expansion - Since the beginning of the year, the issuance of tier-2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds by commercial banks has exceeded 1 trillion yuan [9]. - Major banks such as Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of Communications have issued total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) non-capital bonds, with total issuance amounts of 80 billion yuan, 80 billion yuan, and 70 billion yuan respectively [9].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Credit Structure - The central bank's second quarter monetary policy report emphasizes optimizing credit structure and supporting high-quality development of the real economy [1][2] - The report indicates a shift in loan allocation from real estate and infrastructure to sectors like technology, green finance, and inclusive finance, with these areas now accounting for 60-70% of new loans [2][3] - The proportion of medium to long-term loans has increased by nearly 11 percentage points over the past decade, with manufacturing sector loans growing faster than overall loan growth [2][3] Group 2: Financial Support for Innovation and Consumption - The report highlights the importance of inclusive finance and support for technological innovation, indicating that these will be key areas for future financial services [4][5] - There is a noted low percentage of service consumption in residents' expenditure, suggesting significant growth potential in this area [4][5] - The central bank has introduced new financial tools to support technology loans, aiming to enhance the financial ecosystem for technological self-reliance [4][5] Group 3: Supply Chain and Competitive Environment - The report discusses the need to address low-price competition among enterprises, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand and positively impacting prices [7][8] - Recent policies, such as the revision of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium Enterprises," aim to stabilize supply chains and improve payment timelines [8] - The automotive industry, with over 1.5 million related enterprises, is highlighted as a critical sector where stable supply chain development is essential for economic and financial health [8]

Group 1 - The external situation has eased, reinforcing the internal certainty logic, with the Chinese stock market expected to have upward potential before the end of July due to a significant reduction in the risk-free interest rate and a shift in the RMB's depreciation expectations towards stability or slight appreciation [1] - The timely and reasonable macro policies focusing on investor returns and capital market reforms are crucial for changing investors' conservative attitudes towards risks [1] - Future investment should focus more on structural performance rather than short-term index movements [1] Group 2 - Pig prices continue to outperform expectations, and the cost improvements for pig farming companies may lead to better-than-expected profitability, with a focus on the pig farming sector [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to benefit the pig price performance in the second half of 2025, with a seasonal price fluctuation anticipated in the latter half of the year [3] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting has deepened the "anti-involution" work deployment, impacting various industries including construction materials, which may lead to better industry capacity planning and product pricing adjustments [3] Group 3 - Mini LED backlighting and direct display technologies are expected to see higher growth rates and profitability compared to traditional LED markets, with industry benefits likely concentrating among a few leading manufacturers [5] - The increase in non-hydropower renewable energy consumption responsibility weights is projected to support approximately 460 billion kWh of green electricity consumption this year [5] - High-energy-consuming industries such as steel and cement are now included in the green electricity consumption assessment, which may further support green electricity consumption and market development [5] Group 4 - The short-term market trend is strong, with significant new capital entering the market, although the overall profit-making effect remains weak [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below the 5-day moving average but remains above the 10-day moving average, indicating a potential short-term adjustment phase [9] - The focus for the second half of the year should be on the establishment of the Class B directory and addressing structural contradictions in various industries [9]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. [2][4][35] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly this week. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. [4] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden from July 27th to 30th to hold economic and trade talks with the US. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (for Comment)", aiming to improve the standards for identifying low - price dumping and regulate market price order. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of promoting large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - ins. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential communities across the country started renovation, and 6 regions had a start - up rate of over 80%. The national plan for 2025 is to start renovating 25,000 old urban residential communities. - There were multiple price adjustment announcements for coke in different markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan this week. [6][7] 3. Fundamental Analysis - The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. [2] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [35]

Group 1 - The call to address "involution" competition is becoming more widespread, with multiple government departments and industry associations advocating against it, expanding from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles to include e-commerce and food delivery industries [1] - The focus of addressing "involution" competition is increasingly concentrated on common issues such as disorderly competition, severe homogenization, and low-price competition within industries, as well as local government behaviors that lead to unfair competition and project redundancy [1][2] Group 2 - The policy mechanisms to combat "involution" competition are becoming more refined, with recent amendments to laws such as the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Price Law draft targeting low-price disorderly competition, which will enhance the legal regulatory framework [2] - Experts highlight that a significant cause of "involution" is the imbalance between supply and demand, necessitating coordinated efforts on both sides, including support for technological innovation and improved market access to prevent excessive entry and low-quality competition [3] - Strengthening market regulation and creating a cleaner competitive environment are essential for consumer confidence, with recent laws aimed at promoting fair competition and protecting rights, which will encourage private sector investment [3]

7月23日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开企业座谈会，围绕科学编制"十五五"规划，听取关于国 企民企协同发展的意见建议。郑栅洁主任表示，国家发展改革委将健全国企民企协同发展的体制机制， 推动整治内卷式竞争、拓展产业链供应链合作、促进科技创新、完善公司治理和国际化经营服务等，促 进各种所有制经济优势互补、共同发展，进一步增强经济发展活力和产业竞争力。(国家发改委公众号) ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For both short - term, medium - term, and intraday, the view on both coking coal (JM 2509) and coke (J 2509) is to take a bullish approach [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: Since early June, there have been news of safety and environmental production cuts in coal mines. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the expectation of anti - involution in the domestic coal industry has been fermenting. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association and some enterprises have also held meetings to address involution - style competition, highlighting the current imbalance in coal supply and demand. Under the policy of "addressing involution - style competition", the long - term fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, driving up futures prices [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the first round of price increase for coke spot was implemented on the 17th, the second round of price increase started on the 21st, and the futures market has improved the spot market sentiment. The commencement of the 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project will boost the terminal demand for cement and steel in China. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of the anti - involution theme, the overall market sentiment for coke is optimistic, and the main contract remains strong [6].