2025年民航总体实现盈利65亿元，在2024年扭亏为盈的基础上，经营效益进一步向好。 这是今日举行的2026年全国民航工作会议上披露的信息。 而对于已经到来的2026年，民航局预计旅客量将进一步增长，并在"反内卷"方面提出了更落地的监管措 施。 盈利65亿背后 新冠疫情期间，民航业大幅受挫，疫情三年累计亏掉近4000亿，2023年虽然大幅减亏，但亏损额依然超 过了疫情前的任何一年。 到2024年，民航业终于扭亏为盈。2025年盈利进一步提升，得益于旅客量和货邮吞吐量的持续增长，以 及油价的下行，运营效率的提升。 根据民航局在今日会上披露的数据，2025年全行业完成运输总周转量1640.8亿吨公里、旅客运输量7.7亿 人次、货邮运输量1017.2万吨，同比分别增长10.5%、5.5%、13.3%。 2024年的旅客运输量和货邮运输量分别比2023年增长17.9%和22.1%，而2025年的旅客量增长已降为个 位数。 尽管全行业在2025年盈利65亿元，但并不意味着所有航司和机场都能赚钱。2025年前三季度，所有上市 航司都获得了盈利，但三季度过后就进入民航传统淡季，航司能否在全年收获盈利，四季度亏多少成了 关 ...

专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 跃龙在渊 进无咎——玄元投资2026年市场展望及投资策略 来源：玄元投资 作者：杨夏 各位嘉宾下午好，我是玄元投资的杨夏。很荣幸今天能和大家交流我们对明年市场的看法。我汇报的题 目是"跃龙在渊 进无咎"，这来自《易经》，行情处在现在这个位置，可进可退，"跃龙"或者"在渊"的关 键在于"进" ，进就没有问题，而这里的进就是指经济基本面要向前进。 玄元的投资框架与三类风格跟踪 我们的体系始终围绕"股价=EPS×PE"展开。A股市场有个很明显的特征，就是半年到一年的周期里，估 值（PE）的波动通常比盈利（EPS）大得多。所以我们跟踪的关键就是通过宏观流动性去判断接下来市 场更偏好哪种风格。简单来说，全市场的机会可以归纳为三类：总量风格、成长风格和主题风格。 这三类风格怎么跟踪？总量风格的核心定价因素是中美利差，因为这类资产外资参与多，他们会看国别 之间的比价。比如2021年1月我们看到中美利差和当时白马股的估值出现劈叉，就降低了配置，后来这 类资产确实经历了较长时间的调整。成长风格除了看盈利，估值也很重要，尤其是美债实际利率——它 和A股成长板块的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The debt cycle in 2026 will still be in the clearing stage, with the combination of fiscal and monetary double - easing policies continuing. The policy emphasizes "improving quality and efficiency", and the direction of risk resolution in key areas is clearer. The policy aims to maintain a reasonable economic growth rate and improve the quality of economic development, promoting the economy to move forward steadily on the high - quality development track [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Situation and Tasks: Pressure Eases Marginally, and the Overall Plan Balances Domestic and International Aspects - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10 - 11, 2025, set the tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency". The meeting's view on the current economic situation has improved marginally, and it is expected that the GDP growth rate in 2026 will be around 5%. The policy may focus more on quality and efficiency, and the necessity of front - loaded policy implementation may decrease [3][12][13]. - The policy goals emphasize achieving greater breakthroughs in the "effective improvement of quality", with strengthening the domestic large - scale cycle as the top priority. The meeting also shows more attention to expanding domestic demand and is more cautious about external risks [19]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Regulation: Policies Improve Quality and Efficiency, and Flexible Interest Rate Cuts are Expected - The policy tone is newly established as "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency". It emphasizes the coordinated efforts of stock and incremental policies and better control of the rhythm of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. A new mechanism for managing expectations is proposed [21]. - Fiscal policy remains more proactive. The deficit rate in 2026 is expected to be about 4%, and the general deficit rate is about 9.8%, with a net debt - raising financing scale of 14.42 trillion yuan. Tax incentives and fiscal subsidies will be more strictly regulated [21]. - Monetary policy continues to be moderately loose. It is proposed to use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts "flexibly and efficiently", and "reasonable price recovery" is included in the policy tone. Monetary policy will continue to provide targeted support to key areas [21]. 3.3 Development Plan: Emphasize Domestic Demand - Led Growth and Rectify Involutionary Competition - In terms of domestic demand, a "rural and urban residents' income increase plan" is proposed for the first time, and unreasonable restrictions in the consumption field will be cleared. On the investment side, the focus shifts to the central government, with an increase in central budgetary investment to stop the decline [23]. - Industrial policies focus on scientific and technological innovation, with strengthened institutional supply and improved innovation chains. "Innovative science and technology financial services" are proposed for the first time [23]. - In terms of reform, rectifying "involutionary competition" is included in the reform tasks. The direction of fiscal and tax system reform is clearer, and the "reduction in quantity and improvement in quality" of small and medium - sized financial institutions is required [23]. 3.4 Risk Prevention: Real Estate Inventory Reduction and Orderly Debt Resolution - In 2026, risk prevention focuses on real estate and local government debts. The real estate policy will continue to emphasize "inventory reduction" with the principle of "implementing policies according to cities", and the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing is encouraged again [27]. - Regarding local debts, it is emphasized that no new implicit debts should be added illegally. The central government publicly names the operational debt risks of local financing platforms for the first time, and debt risks will be resolved in an orderly manner through market - based means [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2025, emphasizing a moderate policy tone, a focus on internal demand, and long-term structural improvements while addressing external risks [3][4][9]. Group 1: Policy Tone and Direction - The policy tone is generally moderate, shifting from "seeking progress while maintaining stability" to "maintaining stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency" [4][10]. - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary levels of deficit, debt, and expenditure, with a projected deficit rate around 4% [4][11]. - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, with an emphasis on promoting reasonable price recovery [11][12]. Group 2: Internal Demand and Investment - The focus is on internal demand, with clear strategies to stabilize investment and enhance service consumption [4][11]. - Investment is expected to stop declining, with new policy financial tools being utilized to support this [4][11]. - Service consumption will be promoted through reforms aimed at increasing supply to stimulate demand [11][12]. Group 3: Risk Management and Real Estate - The emphasis on risk prevention has decreased, with ongoing policies for real estate and debt management [5][12]. - Reforms in the housing provident fund system are anticipated, including potential reductions in loan rates and adjustments in withdrawal ratios [5][12]. - The fiscal environment for 2026 is expected to remain similar to 2025, with a focus on managing debt and social spending [5][12]. Group 4: Social Stability and Employment - Maintaining social stability remains a priority, with measures in healthcare, education, and employment being highlighted [6][13]. - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain stable, balancing growth with social needs [6][13]. - The article notes the importance of transitioning from traditional labor-intensive industries to ensure employment stability [6][13]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Reforms - The conference highlighted the need for long-term structural reforms to address "involution" in competition, with a focus on establishing a unified national market [5][12]. - Measures to improve the supply side are expected to contribute to a moderate recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [5][12]. - The commitment to a dual carbon strategy includes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and improving disaster prevention infrastructure [6][13].

Market Performance - The energy storage and wind power sectors have performed relatively well, achieving positive excess returns compared to industry indices, while the photovoltaic and grid equipment sectors have underperformed [1][2] - The energy storage sector benefits from ongoing industry prosperity and rapid growth in shipment volumes, significantly outperforming industry benchmarks [2] - The wind power sector's bidding market has begun to transmit its prosperity to the revenue side of industry chain companies, leading to a noticeable recovery in their performance [2] Industry Recovery - The photovoltaic sector's performance has bottomed out and is beginning to recover, while the wind and energy storage sectors show an upward trend in their fundamentals [2] - The photovoltaic supply chain, including silicon materials, silicon wafers, and integrated components, is gradually recovering, although auxiliary materials are under pressure [3] - The domestic photovoltaic demand is expected to surge in the first half of 2025 due to the implementation of relevant policies, stabilizing industry prices [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in expansion pace due to the enforcement of policies aimed at curbing "involution" competition, leading to an ongoing optimization of the supply-demand structure [2][3] - The wind power sector is witnessing a clear recovery, with revenue growth driven by the transmission of high bidding market conditions to the income side of the industry chain [4][5] Grid Equipment Sector - The grid equipment sector continues to show stable growth, benefiting from a long-term uptrend in global grid investment [6] - The demand for grid equipment is increasing due to the rapid growth of wind and photovoltaic industries, necessitating greater investment in grid infrastructure [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to July [2][3] - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, showing continued strength in these sectors [3] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output prices rose to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in market price levels [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from July, indicating continued expansion [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, reflecting a significant recovery [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from July, due to adverse weather conditions [6] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectations index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from July, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing firms [4] - The business activity expectations index for the service sector was 57.0%, indicating optimism about future market developments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry in China has shown resilience and stability in the first half of the year, with key indicators such as non-performing loan ratio, provision coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio remaining stable and improving, indicating a strong capacity to resist risks and support the real economy [1][8]. Group 1: Banking Industry Performance - As of mid-year, total assets of banking financial institutions reached 467.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with large commercial banks holding 204.2 trillion yuan, up 10.4% [1]. - The non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, down 0.02 percentage points [8]. Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The balance of inclusive micro and small enterprise loans reached 36 trillion yuan, growing by 12.3% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans increased to 13.9 trillion yuan, with an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [3][4]. - Large commercial banks accounted for over 16 trillion yuan of the inclusive micro and small enterprise loans, with their share increasing by 2.34 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [4]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The cost-to-income ratio for commercial banks was 30.2%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from the previous year, while the proportion of non-interest income rose to 25.75%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points [6]. - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter [6]. Group 4: Credit Risk Management - The banking sector has proactively managed credit risks, increasing provisions by 1.1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 579 billion yuan more than the previous year, and disposed of 1.5 trillion yuan of non-performing assets, an increase of 1.236 trillion yuan year-on-year [8]. - Capital adequacy ratios improved, with the overall capital adequacy ratio at 15.58%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Group 5: Capital Expansion - Since the beginning of the year, the issuance of tier-2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds by commercial banks has exceeded 1 trillion yuan [9]. - Major banks such as Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of Communications have issued total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) non-capital bonds, with total issuance amounts of 80 billion yuan, 80 billion yuan, and 70 billion yuan respectively [9].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Credit Structure - The central bank's second quarter monetary policy report emphasizes optimizing credit structure and supporting high-quality development of the real economy [1][2] - The report indicates a shift in loan allocation from real estate and infrastructure to sectors like technology, green finance, and inclusive finance, with these areas now accounting for 60-70% of new loans [2][3] - The proportion of medium to long-term loans has increased by nearly 11 percentage points over the past decade, with manufacturing sector loans growing faster than overall loan growth [2][3] Group 2: Financial Support for Innovation and Consumption - The report highlights the importance of inclusive finance and support for technological innovation, indicating that these will be key areas for future financial services [4][5] - There is a noted low percentage of service consumption in residents' expenditure, suggesting significant growth potential in this area [4][5] - The central bank has introduced new financial tools to support technology loans, aiming to enhance the financial ecosystem for technological self-reliance [4][5] Group 3: Supply Chain and Competitive Environment - The report discusses the need to address low-price competition among enterprises, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand and positively impacting prices [7][8] - Recent policies, such as the revision of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium Enterprises," aim to stabilize supply chains and improve payment timelines [8] - The automotive industry, with over 1.5 million related enterprises, is highlighted as a critical sector where stable supply chain development is essential for economic and financial health [8]

Group 1 - The external situation has eased, reinforcing the internal certainty logic, with the Chinese stock market expected to have upward potential before the end of July due to a significant reduction in the risk-free interest rate and a shift in the RMB's depreciation expectations towards stability or slight appreciation [1] - The timely and reasonable macro policies focusing on investor returns and capital market reforms are crucial for changing investors' conservative attitudes towards risks [1] - Future investment should focus more on structural performance rather than short-term index movements [1] Group 2 - Pig prices continue to outperform expectations, and the cost improvements for pig farming companies may lead to better-than-expected profitability, with a focus on the pig farming sector [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to benefit the pig price performance in the second half of 2025, with a seasonal price fluctuation anticipated in the latter half of the year [3] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting has deepened the "anti-involution" work deployment, impacting various industries including construction materials, which may lead to better industry capacity planning and product pricing adjustments [3] Group 3 - Mini LED backlighting and direct display technologies are expected to see higher growth rates and profitability compared to traditional LED markets, with industry benefits likely concentrating among a few leading manufacturers [5] - The increase in non-hydropower renewable energy consumption responsibility weights is projected to support approximately 460 billion kWh of green electricity consumption this year [5] - High-energy-consuming industries such as steel and cement are now included in the green electricity consumption assessment, which may further support green electricity consumption and market development [5] Group 4 - The short-term market trend is strong, with significant new capital entering the market, although the overall profit-making effect remains weak [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below the 5-day moving average but remains above the 10-day moving average, indicating a potential short-term adjustment phase [9] - The focus for the second half of the year should be on the establishment of the Class B directory and addressing structural contradictions in various industries [9]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]