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当人口高峰遇见消费高峰:消费格局如何演变?
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-19 08:35
Group 1: Consumption Patterns - The age structure of consumer spending in China shows an inverted U-shape, peaking at ages 30-40, followed by a decline[7] - Major consumption expenditures, such as marriage (30.2 years), housing (33.3 years), and car purchases (30.5 years), predominantly occur between ages 30-40[8] - Income peaks between ages 25-45, aligning with the highest consumption levels during the same age range[12] Group 2: Demographic Impact on Consumption - In 2022, individuals aged 20-39 accounted for 26.7% of the total population but contributed 29.1% of total consumption, making them the largest consumer group[4] - From 2010-2018, the 20-39 age group contributed 30.3% to consumption growth, but from 2018-2022, they became the main reason for a 44% decline in consumption growth[25] - The youth unemployment rate, particularly among those aged 16-24, reached 19.9% in 2022, correlating with decreased consumption among younger demographics[24] Group 3: Future Consumption Trends - The consumption peak is expected to shift rightward, with the 40-49 age group projected to increase from 13.8% to 15.9% of the population by 2030, potentially aligning with consumption peaks[58] - If the population peak and consumption peak overlap, the growth rate of total consumption from 2025-2035 may exceed that of 2020-2025[58] - The overall consumption tendency is anticipated to rise, with projections indicating an increase from 65% in 2020 to 81.6% by 2035[62]
为什么我长期看好股市
表舅是养基大户· 2025-04-09 13:32
今天A股和港股的表现,可以说超出绝大多数人的预期了,因为一早在《 女灭霸引爆美股 》里说的,关税冲突进一步加剧(今晚还在加剧,我 们再次加码反制),外围环境是在变差的,结果,在全球一片大跌,美股昨晚高位跳水10%的情况下, A股港股逆市翻红,强到离谱 。 今天A股80%以上的个股上涨,港股70%以上的个股上涨,而且,跌停个股数量,在上午9点40分后,快速回落,到收盘的时候,只有13只个股还 停在跌停板上,这说明, 市场的局部流动性危机,也彻底解除了 。 更令人比较惊讶的是, 今天国家队,甚至都没怎么出手 ——除了科创50一早有明显的放量外,其他几个宽基ETF,几乎都没怎么动。 代表小盘股的中证2000,开盘跌超7%,陷入危机模式,但没过1个小时,就直接拉红了,我了解了一圈,国家队还是没买这个方向——和过去一样,在市 值上,国家队选择的标的,最多还是只下沉到中证1000。 不过,这也说明了两个事。 第一, 市场 自发反弹的力量非常强; 第二, 国家队 本次的救市策略相当成功,在连续两日大额净买入托底,建立起市场的信心后,到了第三天,只需要上班打个卡,就撬动起了市场的杠杆 资金。 我们看昨天和今天的数据,也算是亲 ...