由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"9月24日在广州开幕。本届论坛由中国上市公司协会提供指导支持，广州医药集团有限公司为战略合 作伙伴，华润雪花啤酒超高端品牌"醴"为尊享合作伙伴。华润雪花啤酒醴，致敬中国千年酿酒文化。 在当前全球经济格局深刻变革、技术浪潮席卷而来的关键节点，著名经济学家付鹏在"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"对话中，从黄金共识、人工智能演进、代际 价值变迁、人口结构与消费趋势等多维度，勾勒出一幅充满变局与机遇的时代图景。 著名经济学家付鹏 "过去近十年间，世界经历了地缘政治、经济格局乃至全球秩序层面的巨变。这种巨变初期往往难以看清全貌，但当我们十年后再回看，有些秩序其实已 经发生变化了。"付鹏认为，价值储存的功能也会发生调整。 他指出，市场对黄金的持续追捧，实则是全球对潜在极端风险的一种集体表达，反映出传统信用体系的松动与新秩序重构的开启。 与此同时，人工智能已从概念探索迈入应用爆发阶段，不仅重塑产业逻辑，更成为个人不可回避的基本能力。 付鹏进一步强调，价值共识并非永恒，它随代际更迭而流动——年轻一代的偏好正重新定义消费与投资的方向。而在这一切背后，人口年龄结构的变化， 作为深层次 ...

著名经济学家付鹏（左一） 针对全球格局的周期性变化，著名经济学家付鹏在论坛对话环节表示，世界正处在一个重大改变阶段，这实际上是宏观大周期的一个关键节点。他认为，全 球秩序自二战后建立，经历了从融合包容到保守主义的循环，而极端保守主义最终可能导向战争。 "我们全世界这套秩序的建立，应该说以二战战争作为起点，进入到80年代的发展成全球化的融合、包容，但是你也知道融合和包容中间照样会出现失 衡。"付鹏指出，到2012年、2013年，各国内部矛盾的计划使得各国都选择了保守主义，"当然极端的保守主义就又回到战争了，因为战争本质上就是极端的 保守"。 他表示，这种循环是历史发展的基本规律。"人类历史很有意思，它就是这样一个Circle（圆圈），打完了可能又好了，又包容了，又融合了，一轮新周期就 来了。"付鹏认为，这个最大的周期会影响下面的小周期，其中包括人口周期。 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 他进一步分析，战争后的人口有一个特点："波峰比较近，就是早生早婚早孕， ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market strategy and the Volcker Model, which evaluates market performance through various dimensions including valuation, earnings, cycles, macro policies, overseas environment, and liquidity [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Volcker Model Components**: The model consists of six dimensions: Valuation (W), Earnings (E), Cycles (L), Macro Policies (C), Overseas Environment (O), and Liquidity (M). These factors collectively influence market performance, with macro policies and overseas environment primarily affecting valuation and fundamentals [3][5]. - **Asset Allocation Trends**: As per the report, when per capita income in China reaches $10,000, the proportion of non-financial assets will likely decline while financial assets will increase, particularly in fixed income and savings [1][8]. - **Corporate Lifecycle Stages**: Companies are categorized into five lifecycle stages: embryonic, expansion, high growth, maturity, and decline, each requiring different valuation methods such as PS, PEG, PE, and PB [1][10][11]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Key indicators like GDP growth and CPI recovery are crucial for market and industry allocation. Adjustments in consumer sector allocations may be necessary if inflation expectations change in the latter half of the year [1][12]. - **Market Earnings Expectations**: The market earnings forecast for 2025 has been revised from 1% to 3.5%, based on macroeconomic indicators and industrial production data [1][15][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Impact of Population Cycle**: The slowing population growth in recent years has exerted pressure on income, indirectly affecting the performance of the A-share market [7]. - **Technological Cycles**: Different technological cycles impact various sectors, and market expectations play a significant role in assessing the prospects of technology sectors within the A-share market [9]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The prolonged period of loose monetary policy has diminished its marginal impact on the market, while fiscal policy is gaining more attention, especially in light of external and internal economic conditions [14]. - **Liquidity Analysis**: Macro liquidity is assessed through both quantity (M1, M2, credit) and price (risk-free interest rates), which significantly influence stock market performance [19][20]. - **Market Bottom Indicators**: The assessment of the A-share market bottom in September 2024 was based on extreme turnover rates and low trading volumes, indicating potential recovery opportunities despite weak fundamentals [22]. - **Small vs. Large Cap Stocks**: Research indicates that small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks in recent years, influenced by macroeconomic expectations [26]. - **Industry Allocation Framework**: The GICS four-level industry classification system has been effectively used since 2013 to provide allocation recommendations, with outperforming sectors significantly beating the benchmark [27]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market strategy and its influencing factors.

Group 1: Consumption Patterns - The age structure of consumer spending in China shows an inverted U-shape, peaking at ages 30-40, followed by a decline[7] - Major consumption expenditures, such as marriage (30.2 years), housing (33.3 years), and car purchases (30.5 years), predominantly occur between ages 30-40[8] - Income peaks between ages 25-45, aligning with the highest consumption levels during the same age range[12] Group 2: Demographic Impact on Consumption - In 2022, individuals aged 20-39 accounted for 26.7% of the total population but contributed 29.1% of total consumption, making them the largest consumer group[4] - From 2010-2018, the 20-39 age group contributed 30.3% to consumption growth, but from 2018-2022, they became the main reason for a 44% decline in consumption growth[25] - The youth unemployment rate, particularly among those aged 16-24, reached 19.9% in 2022, correlating with decreased consumption among younger demographics[24] Group 3: Future Consumption Trends - The consumption peak is expected to shift rightward, with the 40-49 age group projected to increase from 13.8% to 15.9% of the population by 2030, potentially aligning with consumption peaks[58] - If the population peak and consumption peak overlap, the growth rate of total consumption from 2025-2035 may exceed that of 2020-2025[58] - The overall consumption tendency is anticipated to rise, with projections indicating an increase from 65% in 2020 to 81.6% by 2035[62]

今天A股和港股的表现，可以说超出绝大多数人的预期了，因为一早在《 女灭霸引爆美股 》里说的，关税冲突进一步加剧（今晚还在加剧，我 们再次加码反制），外围环境是在变差的，结果，在全球一片大跌，美股昨晚高位跳水10%的情况下， A股港股逆市翻红，强到离谱 。 今天A股80%以上的个股上涨，港股70%以上的个股上涨，而且，跌停个股数量，在上午9点40分后，快速回落，到收盘的时候，只有13只个股还 停在跌停板上，这说明， 市场的局部流动性危机，也彻底解除了 。 更令人比较惊讶的是， 今天国家队，甚至都没怎么出手 ——除了科创50一早有明显的放量外，其他几个宽基ETF，几乎都没怎么动。 代表小盘股的中证2000，开盘跌超7%，陷入危机模式，但没过1个小时，就直接拉红了，我了解了一圈，国家队还是没买这个方向——和过去一样，在市 值上，国家队选择的标的，最多还是只下沉到中证1000。 不过，这也说明了两个事。 第一， 市场 自发反弹的力量非常强； 第二， 国家队 本次的救市策略相当成功，在连续两日大额净买入托底，建立起市场的信心后，到了第三天，只需要上班打个卡，就撬动起了市场的杠杆 资金。 我们看昨天和今天的数据，也算是亲 ...