文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘下跌较多，一口气回到4.4星。 中证全指回到了9月初时的点数。 大中小盘股都下跌，小微盘股下跌更多一些。 价值风格下跌稍少，成长风格波动比较大。 创业板下跌超4%。 港股也出现波动。 港股科技股下跌3%。 螺丝钉汇总了港股指数估值，不过这个估值数据是周四收盘的，见文章下方图片，周五的数据还没来得及更新。 例如今天下跌后，港股科技指数的估值，也回到了低估。 黄金从之前高点，最近回调了7.5%。 人民币长期纯债，这周也出现下跌。 正常情况下，遇到股票市场低迷，可能债券或者黄金会强一些。 不过最近却出现了股债商三杀。 1. 昨天美股纳斯达克开盘上涨2%，不过之后大幅下跌，到收盘的时候，纳斯达克变成下跌2%。 盘中回调4-5%。 美股纳斯达克前段时间达到高估，也是今年来首次到高估。 之后纳斯达克从高估回调了8%。 美股波动比较大，也带动今天全球市场出现波动。 韩股下跌超过3%，日股下跌超2%。 最近全球市场波动中，A股的波动还算相对较小的。 2. 另一个值得关注的是，最近黄金、债券也出现下跌。 这种情况比较少见，通常是在出现流动性危机的时候，会遇到。 例如2013年的钱 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘略微下跌，波动不大，还在4.1星。 沪深300等大盘股下跌稍多。 中小盘股略微上涨。 今年三季报，中小盘股的基本面也开始出现复苏， 像中证500等指数的盈利同比增长情况也比较好。 红利等价值风格、成长风格都是略微下跌。 港股略微下跌，波动跟A股差不多。 1. 最近大盘进入到横盘震荡的时间。 今年三季度，A股成长股大幅上涨，创业板创下最近10年最大单季度涨幅。 在9月底的时候，A股达到了4.1星。 随后两个月，A股在4.1-4.3星上下波动。 其实最近1年多，A股的上涨，主要就是两个阶段： 去年9月最后两周，以及今年三季度。 而且这些时间里也不是每天都有上涨。 真正大涨的时间，大约占全部交易时间的7%。 其他时间里多为阴跌或震荡。 但也就是这7%的时间，创造了绝大多数的回报。 当闪电劈下来的时候，我们要在场。 2. 不过另一个问题来了，我们怎么知道闪电会劈下来？ 这要回归到指数基金的收益公式上： 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红。 除了每年比较稳定的股息分红的回报（这部分会直接归入到基金净值中）， 从指数长期上涨的角度，驱动因素主要是两个： （1）估值提升 （2）上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends, particularly focusing on the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global and domestic stock markets, highlighting the performance of various indices and sectors. Market Performance - The overall market experienced a decline, with the CSI All Share Index down approximately 1% [2] - Large-cap stocks showed less volatility compared to small-cap stocks, which experienced a more significant decline [3] - The growth style of stocks saw a notable drop, while value styles remained strong [4][7] - The ChiNext Index fell by 1.8%, indicating a trend of high valuation followed by declines [8][10] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, aligning with market expectations, but indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [14][15][16] - This uncertainty regarding future rate cuts has raised concerns in the market, leading to a short-term decline in U.S. stocks [19] - Since the Fed's first rate cut announcement in September 2024, global stock markets have risen by approximately 28%, with A-shares increasing over 50% and Hong Kong stocks rising over 55% [23][24] Impact of Rate Cuts on Markets - Rate cuts are generally seen as beneficial for the stock market, as lower dollar rates favor global assets [21] - The positive effects of rate cuts are often reflected in the market weeks before the actual announcement, as investors anticipate these changes [25] - The article suggests that the dollar interest rates are likely to continue decreasing, which would benefit RMB assets and potentially lead to further increases in A-shares [26][27] Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for dividend and free cash flow indices, indicating various metrics such as earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield for different indices [6][27] - The valuation insights suggest that certain indices are undervalued and suitable for investment, while others are overvalued [42] Additional Resources - The article mentions a live session scheduled for October 31 to discuss investment strategies and insights related to the current market conditions [34] - A free investment guide is offered to help readers understand fund advisory services better [30]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market has shown a recovery, with significant increases in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a positive trend in the investment landscape [1][10][13]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 4000 points, while the CSI All Share Index has reached 5913 points, nearing its post-National Day level of 5967 points [3][4]. - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks have risen, with large-cap stocks showing slightly more growth [5]. - Growth and value styles have both experienced increases, with the STAR Market showing particularly strong performance [6][7]. - The Hang Seng Index has also risen, led by technology stocks [10]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index for September indicated a slowdown in inflation, which was below market expectations [11]. - The likelihood of a continued decline in U.S. dollar interest rates has increased, contributing to a global stock market rally [12]. Investment Strategies - The article highlights that despite market fluctuations, many investors have seen profits, with over 94% of holders in the actively selected portfolio being profitable [17][18]. - It discusses the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective and avoiding panic selling during market downturns [32][33]. - The article emphasizes that a majority of investors who engaged in regular investments or increased their positions during market lows have benefited from reduced costs and earlier profits [34][35]. Upcoming Events - A live session is scheduled for October 28 to discuss the reasons behind the recent significant increases in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, the valuation advantages of RMB assets, and future market prospects [39].

Market Overview - The overall market has seen an increase, currently rated at 4.3 stars [1] - Small and mid-cap stocks have experienced a slightly higher increase compared to large caps [2] - Value style has seen a slight increase, while growth style has increased more significantly [3] - The ChiNext index has risen nearly 2%, and the higher-valued Sci-Tech board has seen a minor increase [4] - Hong Kong stocks exhibit greater elasticity compared to A-shares [5] - Following a period of decline, Hong Kong stocks have rebounded significantly today, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3% [6][7] Earnings Reports - Recent quarterly reports from listed companies have continued the profit growth trend observed in Q2 [8] - A comprehensive analysis of the Q3 earnings growth for major A-share and Hong Kong indices will be shared after the end of the month [9] Market Volatility - In a bull market, fluctuations are normal, as evidenced by past bull markets in 2007 and 2015, which experienced several corrections of several percentage points [10] - Since last year, the CSI All Share Index has increased by nearly 60% [11] - The significant gains occurred during two specific periods: the last two weeks of September last year and the third quarter of this year, accounting for about 7% of the time [13] - Other periods have been characterized by sideways movements or corrections [14] - For instance, A-shares experienced a 15.1% correction in early October 2024, followed by various corrections in subsequent months [15][16][17][18] Long-term Trends - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 74% since last year, with notable gains following the Spring Festival and during the last two weeks of September [20][21] - The volatility of Hong Kong stocks is greater than that of A-shares, with significant corrections recorded [23][24] - The data indicates that while corrections vary in magnitude and duration, they ultimately lead to recovery and higher peaks, reinforcing the notion of long-term index growth [26][27] Investment Strategy - The focus should not be on predicting the magnitude of each correction but rather on identifying low valuations and high earnings growth rates, which increase the likelihood of significant market movements [32] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a long-term perspective, focusing on good valuations and strong earnings growth, as short-term fluctuations are often noise that does not impact long-term returns [34][35] - A calm mindset is essential for investors, emphasizing the importance of looking beyond short-term market fluctuations [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various stock markets during the recent holiday period, highlighting the stability of A-shares and the fluctuations in Hong Kong and U.S. markets, while also providing an updated valuation table for investors to consider. Group 1: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced overall gains during the holiday, but there were slight declines on the following Monday and Wednesday [7][9]. - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.1%, and the H-share Index decreased by 0.33% [9]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index showed resilience, increasing by 0.75% [10]. - The gains made during the holiday will be reflected in the fund net values on October 9, combining holiday performance with the market's performance on that day [11][12]. Group 2: U.S. and Other Overseas Markets - Global stock markets saw slight increases during the holiday period [13]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.39%, indicating minimal volatility [15]. Group 3: A-share Market - A-shares did not trade during the holiday, but there were indicators from overseas markets tracking A-shares [16][17]. - The FTSE A50 index futures saw a minor decline of 0.13%, while the U.S. market's CSI 300 index fund dropped by 0.49% [19][21]. - These movements reflect overseas investors' perceptions of A-share fluctuations during the holiday [22]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of knowledge and courage in investing, suggesting that understanding market trends can help investors navigate short-term volatility [25]. - It encourages a mindset where perceived market downturns can be viewed as opportunities for patient investors [25]. Group 5: Valuation Table - The valuation table provides various metrics such as earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield for different indices and funds, indicating investment opportunities [27]. - Green items in the table are considered undervalued and suitable for regular investment, while yellow indicates normal conditions, and red signifies overvaluation [29].

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are higher, with Dow futures gaining approximately 100 points [1] Quantum Computing Inc. - Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ:QUBT) raised $750 million from institutional investors through a market-priced private placement led by top shareholders [1] - Shares of Quantum Computing fell sharply by 11.7% to $21.70 in pre-market trading [1] Other Stocks in Pre-Market Trading - Rich Sparkle Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:ANPA) dropped 15% to $22.10 after a 10% decline on Friday [3] - Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE:NAT) decreased by 7.8% to $3.07 [3] - Smurfit WestRock PLC (NYSE:SW) fell 5.8% to $39.54 [3] - Mesoblast Ltd (NASDAQ:MESO) declined 5.2% to $17.45, despite an 8% gain on Friday following the announcement of Ryoncil receiving a J-Code from Medicare & Medicaid Services [3] - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (NYSE:IVR) decreased by 4.4% to $7.42 [3] - Inventiva ADR (NASDAQ:IVA) fell 4.2% to $6.26 after appointing Andrew Obenshain as CEO [3] - International Paper Co (NYSE:IP) dropped 4.2% to $45.21 ahead of its third-quarter earnings release on October 30 [3] - Lufax Holding Ltd – ADR (NYSE:LU) fell 3.7% to $3.85 after an 8% decline on Friday [3] - Larimar Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:LRMR) decreased by 3.3% to $4.71 after a 14% jump on Friday [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market showed a positive trend with significant increases in various indices, indicating a favorable investment environment ahead of the upcoming holidays [1][4][5]. Market Performance - The market opened lower but closed higher, with all market caps (large, medium, and small) experiencing gains [1][3]. - The ChiNext Index saw a substantial rise, reaching a new high for the year, suggesting it is approaching overvaluation [4]. - The securities index also rose significantly, now reflecting a normal to slightly high valuation [5]. - Hong Kong stocks demonstrated strong performance, particularly in the technology sector [6]. Investment Strategy Before Holidays - With the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, there are specific deadlines for purchasing different types of funds to be considered as pre-holiday investments: - Money Market Funds must be bought by September 29, 3 PM [8]. - Bond Funds must be purchased by September 30, 3 PM, as they can still accrue interest during the holiday [9]. - Stock Funds also have the same deadline as bond funds for pre-holiday purchases [11]. - It is noted that stock fund net values will not be updated during the holiday, while Hong Kong stocks will still have trading days [12][13]. Investment Philosophy - The company advises against selling funds simply due to the holiday, emphasizing a long-term investment approach [17][18]. - The analogy is made that just as business owners do not sell their companies before holidays, investors should maintain their positions unless valuations become excessively high [19][20]. Upcoming Schedule - The trading schedule around the holidays is outlined, indicating that A-shares will be closed during the holiday period, and fund transactions will resume afterward [23][24]. - The company will continue its regular investment strategy post-holiday, with a focus on maintaining investment discipline [25]. Investment Opportunities - The current market is rated at 4.2 stars, suggesting it is a good time to invest in the "Monthly Treasure" investment portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds [2][28]. - The stock portion of the portfolio is described as value-oriented, with current valuations being slightly lower than at the beginning of the year [28]. User Engagement - The company is encouraging user feedback and sharing of investment experiences through a campaign titled "My Investment Smile Curve," highlighting the positive outcomes of consistent investment strategies [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of service consumption as a driver of economic growth and a means to enhance the quality of life for citizens, particularly in the context of upcoming holidays and recent policy initiatives aimed at stimulating this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - Various government departments have introduced measures to expand service consumption and upgrade urban convenience services, aiming to boost consumer confidence and spending [1]. - New initiatives include encouraging the introduction of international sports events, relaxing market access in high-end medical and leisure sectors, extending operating hours for popular cultural venues, and launching vocational training for domestic service workers [2]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - To activate consumption, it is crucial to improve the service environment and increase the supply of quality, inclusive services, addressing issues of oversupply in low-end and homogeneous services while enhancing specialized and personalized offerings [2]. - The government has implemented a series of policies, including the introduction of silver tourism trains and a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program, to stimulate consumer spending [2]. Group 3: Focus on Public Needs - The article highlights the necessity of aligning service supply with the real needs and expectations of the public, ensuring that consumer demands are met to effectively ignite the service consumption engine [2].

Core Insights - Shenzhen's foreign trade has shown continuous improvement, with monthly import and export figures increasing for three consecutive months, indicating a positive trend in the external trade environment [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first eight months of the year, Shenzhen's total import and export volume reached 2.96 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 0.3% [1] - Exports totaled 1.79 trillion yuan, experiencing a decline of 4.8%, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Imports amounted to 1.17 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9% [1] - In August alone, Shenzhen's total import and export volume was 379.85 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, with exports at 232.29 billion yuan (up 0.7%) and imports at 147.56 billion yuan (up 6.5%) [1] Group 2: Tax and Trade Structure - Shenzhen taxpayers processed export tax refunds totaling 80.12 billion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, surpassing the national average [1] - The growth in tax refunds was particularly strong in emerging markets, service trade, and cross-border e-commerce, with these sectors seeing over 50% year-on-year growth [1] Group 3: Trade Composition - General trade accounted for over half of Shenzhen's trade, with 1.62 trillion yuan in imports and exports, representing 54.6% of the total [2] - Private enterprises contributed nearly 70% of the total trade volume, with their imports and exports reaching 2.06 trillion yuan [2] - The top ten trading partners accounted for 78.1% of Shenzhen's total trade, with significant growth in trade with Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan [2] Group 4: Export and Import Dynamics - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 1.35 trillion yuan, growing by 4.6% and making up 75% of total exports [3] - Traditional electronic information products, such as computers and integrated circuits, showed strong export growth, with integrated circuits increasing by 40.2% [3] - Imports of mechanical and electrical products totaled 949.16 billion yuan, with integrated circuits and computer components seeing substantial growth [3]