"靠水晶球生活的人，注定是要吃碎玻璃的。" "对美元有信心的请举手。"在近期于新加坡举行的2025慧眼中国环球论坛上，在台下听众聆听了桥水基 金创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio）有关美元、美债和黄金投资的分享后，论坛主持人发问，台下应者寥寥 无几。 而在"看好黄金的请举手"的发问之下，全场应者如云。见到此景，达利欧笑着说，他在市场上学到过一 句话，那就是"靠水晶球生活的人，注定是要吃碎玻璃的（He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass）"。 这是达利欧无数次提到的、他在14岁左右时学到的一句市场格言，即如果靠预测市场去做投资和交易， 人迟早要吃亏。 在回顾了20世纪70年代以来美元、美债、黄金的趋势后，达利欧表示，当前随着美国债务不断增加，黄 金和非法定货币将成为更强大的价值储存手段，不过他提醒投资者，最重要的还是要懂得如何进行多元 化投资，而不是盲目押注于某一资产。 他表示，如果把黄金作为投资组合的百分比的一部分，也许应该占到投资组合的10%或15%左右。 9月23日，国际金价延续上涨趋势，创历史新高。截至23日下午发稿，COMEX黄金 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin has surpassed the $120,000 mark, indicating a resurgence in investor optimism after months of stagnation [1][2] - The recent price increase is attributed to a surge in risk appetite in the stock market and significant institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs [2][3] - Bitcoin's price has increased approximately 30% since December, with a doubling in value over the past year [2][3] Group 2 - The next critical resistance level for Bitcoin is at $125,000, with analysts expecting potential short-term profit-taking but maintaining that the upward trend remains strong [4] - The recent rally was also fueled by the liquidation of bearish positions, with over $1 billion in short positions being cleared [4] - Anticipation surrounding the U.S. Congress's "Crypto Week" and potential legislative discussions on key cryptocurrency regulations is contributing to the bullish sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential shift towards being viewed as a store of value similar to gold, rather than a high-risk asset correlated with stocks [1][2][3] Group 1: Bitcoin's Recent Performance - Bitcoin has demonstrated relative strength against U.S. stocks and the dollar, which have both declined due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies [1] - Over the past month, Bitcoin has increased by 7.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has decreased by 6%, and the ICE Dollar Index has fallen by 4.7% [2] - Despite this, Bitcoin remains 14.5% below its all-time high of $109,225 reached on January 20 [2] Group 2: Institutional Adoption and Market Sentiment - There is a belief that Bitcoin may have reached a level of institutional adoption, with investors beginning to focus on its intrinsic value rather than viewing it solely as a high-beta tech stock [3] - The launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has opened avenues for more institutional investment in cryptocurrencies [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the dollar's status as a reliable safe-haven asset may lead investors to consider Bitcoin as a potential refuge during market turmoil [3] Group 3: Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Value - The recent strength of Bitcoin may be driven by unique factors, such as the continued purchases by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which bought $555.8 million worth of Bitcoin recently [2] - The narrative surrounding Bitcoin's price remains complex, with potential benefits from increased liquidity, but it lacks traditional economic indicators like profits or cash flow [4] - Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could also drive Bitcoin prices higher, with traders anticipating at least two more cuts by the end of the year [4]