老铁们！国际黄金市场炸锅了——俄罗斯央行突然抛售实物黄金！作为全球第二大黄金生产国，人家手里握着2300吨黄金，这波甩卖哪怕只出十分之一，都 能让黄金市场抖三抖！关键还选在金价在4000美元关口震荡的节骨眼上，你说刺激不刺激？ 这事儿得掰开揉碎看：短期来看，市场突然多了这么多黄金供应，金价肯定会被压制。但长期呢？俄罗斯卖黄金换其他货币，这不是明摆着对美元信心动摇 吗？就像中国持续增持黄金一样，大国资产配置的调整，背后是全球"去美元化"的大趋势啊！ 现在问题来了：你觉得金价会因为这波抛售暴跌吗？评论区打"会"或"不会"！ 3. 等错杀机会：要是金价因为这消息非理性下跌，那就是捡便宜的好时候！ 帮主20年经验告诉你：大宗商品的每一次波动，都是财富格局洗牌的信号。别被短期消息带节奏，看清趋势才是王道！ 你觉得这波黄金波动，该跑还是该抄底？ 评论区聊聊，帮主给你扒透背后逻辑！我是帮主郑重，专注中长线的财经老炮，投资不追风，等风来！ 给中长线投资者的3个启示，记好了： 1. 短期别冲动：这波抛售的冲击还没明朗，现在进场就是当韭菜； 2. 盯紧替代资产：黄金波动大的时候，高股息股票、资源类资产可能逆势走强； ...

（文章来源：新华社） 俄罗斯中央银行11月20日向俄罗斯国际文传电讯社确认，该行已开始出售储备的实物黄金，以弥补国家 预算所需资金。俄央行未透露销售实物黄金的时间或规模。据俄罗斯多家媒体报道，俄罗斯持有超过 2300吨黄金，是全球第五大黄金储备国。 ...

Core Insights - The Central Bank of Russia has officially launched a plan to sell physical gold as a response to unprecedented financial sanctions imposed by the West following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The sanctions have led to approximately $300 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves being frozen and restricted access to the SWIFT payment system, prompting Russia to accelerate its de-dollarization efforts [3]. - Russia has implemented a series of policies, including tax incentives and simplified gold trading processes, to establish a domestic gold trading network independent of international markets [3]. Group 2: Gold Reserves and Financial Strategy - Russia currently holds over 2,300 tons of gold, making it the fifth-largest holder of gold reserves globally, which provides ample operational space for the new strategy [3]. - The National Wealth Fund (NWF) had 405.7 tons of gold before the conflict, and as of November 1, it has sold 57% of its gold holdings to cover budget deficits, reducing its remaining stock to 173.1 tons [3]. - The overall liquidity assets of the NWF, including gold and renminbi, have decreased by 55%, now totaling $51.6 billion [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - The current asset structure of the NWF consists of approximately 40% gold and 60% renminbi, meaning that any increase in global gold prices will directly enhance the value of reserve assets and expand Russia's liquidity [4]. - The appreciation of gold reserves is translating into increased political leverage, allowing Russia to choose settlement methods more flexibly in international transactions and enhancing its bargaining power in response to sanctions and bilateral cooperation [4].

国泰海通证券指出，央行购金持续，去美元化仍是黄金长期上行的动力。美债规模激增和美元信用持续 面临挑战背景下，各国央行持续购金。根据中国黄金网的数据，2022-2024年，全球央行连续3年净购入 超过1000吨的黄金，3年分别净购金1080吨、1050.8吨和1089.4吨黄金，均超过当年全球黄金总需求的 20％。在去美元化的背景下，预期各国央行将持续购金，支撑黄金价格的长期走势。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

相关机构表示，上周四起，多名美联储官员表态对通胀的担忧，鹰派言论打压降息预期；美国政府停摆 结束，降低黄金短期避险吸引力。但美国政府仍然面临多重问题，宏观环境也存在不确定性，地缘紧张 局势或持续刺激资金的避险需求。预计短期内金价或延续震荡；中长期"美联储开启降息周期+海外宏 观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构成一定支撑，或可考虑逢低分批布局。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 东方证券指出，去美元化持续推进，看好金价中期上涨。人民币国际化进程正借助黄金扩大影响力，上 海黄金交易所主导的上海金定价在非美货币市场影响力有望提升。黄金占中国央行外储比例接近9%， 但仍低于世界主要国家，未来仍有较大提升空间。尽管高金价下央行增持速度略有放缓，但已连续12个 月增持，显示提升黄金占比仍是重要目标。短期金价或受降息预期减弱、美元走强影响维持震荡；中期 美国国债总额或突破40万亿，海外通胀有望持续上行，看好金价突破4500美元/盎司并有望冲击5000美 元/盎司。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

Core Insights - Since 2025, international gold prices have surged over 60%, reaching a peak of $4,300 per ounce in late October, leading to high investment enthusiasm and demand for physical gold [1] - However, as gold's popularity rises, various deceptive practices have emerged, causing significant losses for ordinary investors [1][4] Group 1: Deceptive Practices in Gold Investment - Investors in Shenzhen and Nanjing reported encountering three main scams: "gold wrapped in copper" when buying, "ghost scales" when selling, and "purification depreciation fees" that significantly reduce returns [1][4] - A case study highlighted an investor who purchased a gold bracelet labeled as 999 pure gold, only to discover it was primarily copper upon attempting to sell it, resulting in substantial financial loss and a complicated legal battle [4][5] - Another investor experienced a significant weight loss in gold during the selling process, attributed to the use of manipulated scales by the buyer, leading to a loss of nearly $8,000 [5][7] Group 2: Impact of New Tax Policies - On November 1, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced new tax policies that increased the procurement costs of physical gold bars and jewelry due to a disruption in the VAT deduction chain [3] - As a result, jewelry prices increased by 60-70 yuan per gram on the same day, prompting many investors to shift towards online gold investment options that retain VAT tax benefits [3] Group 3: Shift to Online Gold Investment - In response to the challenges faced in physical gold investment, many ordinary investors are turning to online platforms for gold accumulation and ETFs, which offer lower costs and fewer hidden fees [11][12] - Young investors prefer digital investment methods, such as bank apps and platforms like Alipay, to avoid the high premiums and difficulties associated with physical gold [11][12] - The volatility of the gold market, with prices fluctuating significantly, has led to a more cautious approach among investors, emphasizing the importance of a diversified investment strategy [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a slight correction after a significant rise, currently stabilizing above $4,100 per ounce, with potential resistance at $4,145 and support at $4,095, indicating a bearish trend if the resistance is not broken [1][2] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. military has increased its presence in the Caribbean, with the deployment of the USS Ford aircraft carrier strike group, amid threats from former President Trump regarding military action against Venezuela [1][2] - Venezuela's military has entered a state of readiness, conducting exercises and establishing a comprehensive defense command to prepare for potential armed conflict, reflecting the long-standing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [3] Market Implications - If U.S. military actions escalate, gold prices are likely to break the $4,145 resistance and may reach $4,170 or even $4,200 due to panic buying [2][3] - Conversely, if diplomatic efforts succeed in de-escalating tensions, gold prices may remain in a range-bound movement, awaiting new market drivers [2][3] Investment Methods - Three primary methods for investing in gold are identified: physical gold, paper gold, and gold derivatives, each catering to different risk preferences and investment strategies [4][5][6][7] - Physical gold is suitable for conservative investors but comes with higher holding costs and lower liquidity [5] - Paper gold offers flexibility and lower costs, ideal for short-term trading, but lacks physical ownership [6] - Gold derivatives provide leverage and potential for higher returns, but carry significant risks and are suited for aggressive investors [7]

避险情绪升温，金价正重回强势区间。 11月11日，现货黄金价格再次走高，伦敦金现价盘中一度突破4145美元/盎司。券商中国记者注意到，尽管10 月下旬金价一度跌破3900美元/盎司，但资金并未退场，黄金ETF持续获得增量资金。 具体来看，公募市场代表性黄金ETF产品近期逆势扩容，央行与海外机构亦同步增持黄金，全球配置热度持续 升温。业内人士认为，降息预期与长期配置需求共振，将继续支撑黄金市场活跃度。 美政府停摆与AI担忧叠加，黄金重回强势区间 11月11日，现货黄金价格走高， 再次突破4100美元关口，截至发稿，报 4132 美元/盎司 。 回顾此前一周，伦敦现货黄金收于4000美元/盎司，周环比微跌0.1%；国内AU9999黄金收于918元/ 克，亦小幅回落0.1%，金价在震荡中逐步 企稳。 支撑金价稳中趋强的背后，是美国政治与市场双重不确定性交织。华安基金分析称，截至当地时间11月10日， 美国政府关门持续41天，打破历史最长纪录。停摆原因表面是美国两党对政府预算中削减医疗补助的分歧，而 更深层次则反映了美国政治的极化加剧。 华安基金认为，政府停摆对美国经济的负面影响不断上升，阻碍了社会秩序的正常运作，亦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy for gold aims to reshape the industry ecosystem, promote the maturity and internationalization of the gold market, and enhance market transparency and compliance [2][9][10]. Group 1: Background and Impact of the New Tax Policy - The new tax policy is a response to the increasing investment enthusiasm in gold, driven by rising gold prices, and aims to address accumulated tax issues within the gold industry [9]. - The policy encourages trading around exchanges, strengthens the position of member units, and aims to eliminate non-compliant small enterprises, thereby enhancing overall market efficiency [9][10]. - The long-term effect of the policy is expected to attract more compliant capital into the market, supporting healthy growth in the gold market [9][10]. Group 2: Specific Provisions and Their Effects on the Industry Chain - The new policy introduces three main provisions: adjustments to input tax deduction ratios, detailed rules for invoice issuance, and differential treatment between member and non-member units, leading to differentiated impacts on the industry chain [13][15]. - Upstream mining companies are largely unaffected, while member units enjoy more tax deductions on investment gold, allowing them to expand and consolidate their market position [13][18]. - Non-member units may face increased costs and compliance pressures, potentially leading to a market exit for some non-compliant enterprises [16][20]. Group 3: Changes in Different Segments of the Gold Sector - The new policy is expected to benefit leading mining companies, as they will not face additional tax burdens, while processing and retail segments may see increased market concentration towards larger companies [18][20]. - Retail companies that are members of the exchange may experience increased tax costs, but their core competitiveness in product and service quality will help maintain stable profits [18][20]. - The policy is likely to lead to price increases for gold jewelry, as companies may pass on cost pressures to consumers [16][20]. Group 4: Compliance and Transparency in the Industry - The new policy is designed to close long-standing tax loopholes and promote fair taxation, thereby increasing market transparency and compliance [11][22]. - The elimination of "offshore tax evasion" practices is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of compliant enterprises, leading to a more transparent and stable market environment [22][23]. - The policy is anticipated to improve the profitability and market share of quality enterprises, as the competitive landscape shifts towards product and channel strength [22][23]. Group 5: Attraction of Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs and other financial derivatives are expected to gain attractiveness due to their tax advantages, as they are not affected by the new VAT adjustments [26][30]. - Ordinary investors may find the appeal of physical gold investments declining, while gold ETFs will become more attractive due to lower investment thresholds and operational simplicity [26][30]. - The new policy is likely to lead to increased inflows into gold ETFs, helping investors balance convenience and tax burdens [26][30]. Group 6: Future Price Trends of Gold - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, supported by factors such as inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions [30][32]. - Short-term fluctuations may occur, but the structural demand for gold, particularly from emerging market central banks, is expected to provide solid support for prices [32][30]. - The anticipated monetary easing in the coming years is likely to benefit gold assets, making significant declines in gold prices unlikely [32][30].