国泰海通证券 3 月基金投资策略 [Table_Authors] 江涛(分析师) A 股延续上涨行情，重视主投周期和科技领域基金 本报告导读： 2026 年 2 月，A股虽在月初经历短期波动，但全月仍延续了前期的上涨行情。我们 建议后续基金配置在整体维持均衡风格的前提下，适度偏向成长，从大类资产配置 角度来看可以对黄金和美股相关 ETF 进行一定配置。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 基金投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 基金评价 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 | | 021-23185672 | | --- | --- | | | jiangtao4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040067 | | | 倪韵婷(分析师) | | | 021-23185605 | | | niyunting@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040097 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 国泰海通证券-基金业绩排行榜（2026-02-28） 2026.02.28 国泰海通证券 1 月基金表现回顾 2026.02.04 国泰海 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the A-share major indices are collectively adjusting, while the value ETF E Fund (159263) has shown resilience with a 0.89% increase and a year-to-date gain of 3.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1] - The value ETF E Fund has seen a net inflow of 245 million yuan over the past 20 days, indicating sustained investor interest [1] - Since October of the previous year, the value ETF E Fund has risen over 12%, outperforming similar value style indices and the CSI Dividend Index by approximately 10%, with a current dividend yield of 4.9% [1] Group 2 - Industry experts suggest that the value style is likely to outperform, as the technology growth sector faces significant profit-taking pressure after previous gains, while value assets have lagged and have greater upward potential [1] - The calendar effect indicates that the value style typically performs better before the Spring Festival [1] - The value ETF E Fund tracks the Guozheng Value 100 Index, focusing on deep value through a screening system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low PE," achieving an annualized return of 18% since 2013 [1] - The value ETF E Fund (159263, with linked A/C: 025497 / 025498) provides investors with a convenient tool to access undervalued quality assets in the market [1]

Group 1: A-shares Performance - In 2025, the overall A-share market, represented by the CSI All Share Index, increased by 24.60% [6] - The CSI 300 Index, representing large-cap stocks, rose by 17.66% [7] - The CSI 500 Index, representing mid-cap stocks, saw a significant increase of 30.39% [8] - The CSI 1000 Index, representing small-cap stocks, increased by 27.49% [9] - In 2024, large-cap stocks performed better, but in 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed [9] Group 2: Hong Kong Stocks Performance - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced an overall increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 27.77% [14] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility Index, representing value stocks, increased by 18.97% [14] - The Hong Kong Technology Index, representing growth stocks, surged by 34.97% [14] - The performance of the Hang Seng Index surpassed that of the CSI 300 Index, indicating stronger performance in Hong Kong stocks [14] Group 3: Investment Style Trends - In 2025, growth style stocks became stronger, with the CSI 300 Growth Index rising by 29.52% compared to a 6.41% increase in the CSI 300 Value Index [13] - Over a longer time frame, both growth and value styles show similar long-term returns, although they differ in their performance phases [13] - The value style had been strong for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 [12]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations today, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals and oil & petrochemicals showing strength, leading to an increase in related indices [1] - By the market close, the Guozheng Value 100 Index and Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index both rose by 0.5%, while the Guozheng Growth 100 Index fell by 0.4% [1] - The Value ETF (159263) saw a net subscription of 36 million units throughout the day [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Value 100 Index employs a three-dimensional screening system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" to select value stocks, demonstrating stable historical performance [3] - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index selects stocks based on free cash flow rates, combining high dividends with growth potential [3] - The Value ETF (159263) and the E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on related investment styles [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Dividend+" index is experiencing upward fluctuations, with notable increases in various indices and ETFs, indicating a positive trend in value and cash flow-focused investments [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of the midday close, the Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 0.5%, the CSI Dividend Index increased by 0.3%, and the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index saw a 0.2% rise [1]. - The CSI Dividend Index consists of 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, with the banking, coal, and transportation sectors accounting for nearly 55% of the index [2]. - The Guozheng Value 100 Index is composed of 100 stocks with prominent value characteristics, with consumer discretionary, financial, and industrial sectors making up over 65% of the index [2]. Group 2: ETF Insights - The Value ETF (159263) has seen a net inflow of approximately 150 million yuan over the past six trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) tracks the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, which includes 100 stocks with high free cash flow levels, primarily from the industrial, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors [2]. Group 3: Historical Performance - The annualized return for the CSI Dividend Index from 2013 to 2023 is 11.0%, with fluctuations in annual performance, including a peak of 58% in 2014 and a decline of 16% in 2018 [3]. - The Guozheng Value 100 Index has shown consistent performance with annual returns of 22% in 2013 and 17% in subsequent years [3]. - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has experienced more volatility, with a significant decline of 57% in 2014, but an annualized return of 18.2% over the period [3].

Group 1 - The market showed mixed fluctuations in the early session, with sectors like petrochemicals and banks being locally active, driving the value style upward [1] - As of the midday close, the Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 0.4%, while the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index increased by 0.04%, and the Guozheng Growth 100 Index fell by 1.3% [1] - Related products saw increased capital inflow, with the Value ETF (159263) recording a net subscription of nearly 100 million units in half a day [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Value 100 Index employs a three-dimensional screening system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" to select value stocks, demonstrating stable historical performance [1] - The Value ETF (159263) tracks this index, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on value style investments [1]

Group 1 - The year-end period often sees a higher success rate for value style investments due to performance gaps and seasonal liquidity constraints, leading to increased funds in stable value sectors [1][4] - Institutions are actively adjusting their portfolios, with recent announcements revealing reductions in holdings of previously high-performing stocks and increased positions in industry leaders [1][2] - Specific examples include Hotgen Biotech, where certain funds reduced their stakes while others maintained or increased their holdings, reflecting a mixed sentiment among institutional investors [1][2] Group 2 - The average equity fund position increased to 86.74% as of November 28, indicating a shift in investment focus towards sectors like metals and energy, while reducing exposure in pharmaceuticals and technology [4] - Recent data shows that over 17,000 institutional research visits occurred in the past month, with significant interest in sectors such as general equipment, automotive, and semiconductor industries [4]

Core Insights - The National Securities Value 100 Index and the National Securities Free Cash Flow Index both increased by 0.5%, while the National Securities Growth 100 Index decreased by 0.02% [1] - Related ETFs saw significant inflows, with the Value ETF (159263) and the Free Cash Flow ETF (E Fund, 159222) experiencing net subscriptions of 2 million and 4 million units respectively [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The National Securities Value 100 Index employs a "high dividend + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" screening system, focusing on value stocks with a stable historical performance [1] - The National Securities Free Cash Flow Index selects stocks based on free cash flow rates, combining high dividends with growth potential [1] Group 2: ETF Details - The Value ETF (159263) tracks the National Securities Value 100 Index, which consists of 100 stocks with a focus on value, primarily in the consumer discretionary, financial, and industrial sectors, which together account for over 65% of the index [3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (E Fund, 159222) tracks the National Securities Free Cash Flow Index, comprising 100 stocks with high free cash flow levels, with over 70% of the index represented by industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of value stocks, with the Guozheng Value 100 Index rising by 1.3% and over 10% since October, while the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index increased by 1.1%, achieving four consecutive days of gains [1] - The recent rise in value stocks is attributed not only to a "high-cut-low" market trend but also to expectations of economic recovery and the resonance of dividend premiums [1] - The current non-manufacturing PMI in China has crossed the threshold, indicating potential benefits for traditional value sectors such as home appliances and banking due to recovering demand [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Value 100 Index employs a three-dimensional screening system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" to select value stocks, demonstrating stable historical performance [1] - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index selects assets based on free cash flow rates, focusing on cash-rich value assets, with the top three weighted industries being non-ferrous metals, automotive, and oil and petrochemicals [1] - The Value ETF (159263) and the E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with convenient tools to invest in undervalued quality assets and capitalize on style-switching opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced wide fluctuations today, with popular sectors such as precious metals, semiconductors, and automotive parts undergoing corrections, while the value style showed strength. The Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 0.9%, and the value ETF (159263) saw net subscriptions exceeding 10 million units throughout the day [1]. Summary by Categories Market Performance - The Guozheng Value 100 Index increased by 0.9% [1]. - The value ETF (159263) had net subscriptions of over 10 million units [1]. Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the value style has both upward potential and higher investment success rates. The divergence between growth and value styles has reached historical highs, indicating potential convergence in the future [1]. - Value stocks have lagged in previous gains, suggesting greater return potential [1]. - Current market conditions show a high demand for low-risk investments, coupled with the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports, which may lead to a preference for value stocks [1]. Index Characteristics - The Guozheng Value 100 Index employs a three-tier screening system focusing on "low price-to-earnings ratio, high dividend yield, and high free cash flow ratio" to identify financially healthy and reasonably valued companies [1]. - The current dividend yield of the index is approximately 5%, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 times, positioned at the 6.7% percentile since the index's base date at the end of 2012 [1]. - The index has a balanced industry distribution, with the top three sectors being home appliances, banking, and non-ferrous metals, collectively accounting for nearly 50% of the index's weight [1]. Investment Product - The value ETF (159263, linked funds A/C: 025497/025498) is the only ETF product tracking the Guozheng Value 100 Index, providing investors with a straightforward way to invest in undervalued quality assets in the A-share market [1].