Core Viewpoint - The recent fiscal data indicates a strong commitment from the central and local governments to invest in people's livelihoods, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and public services [1][2][3] Fiscal Expenditure Overview - From January to July, the national general public budget expenditure reached 16,073.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Central government expenditure was 2,332.7 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 13,741.0 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [1] - Expenditure in key areas such as social security and employment grew by 9.8%, education by 5.7%, and health by 5.3% [1][2] Regional Spending Insights - In Beijing, education expenditure was 74.0 billion yuan, growing by 7.9%, driven by policies supporting early childhood education and school expansion [2] - In Yunnan, social security and employment spending reached 79.56 billion yuan, while education spending was 69.63 billion yuan, accounting for 20.4% and 17.9% of local budget expenditures, respectively [2] Policy Initiatives - Recent policies include a child-rearing subsidy program with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, and an increase of about 20 billion yuan for free preschool education this fall [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Civil Affairs are collaborating to implement subsidies for elderly care services for those with moderate to severe disabilities [2] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that future fiscal spending will increasingly focus on "investing in people," with enhanced support for social welfare and public services [3][4] - The central government's higher funding share is expected to alleviate local fiscal pressures, allowing for more robust investment in education, healthcare, and housing [3][4]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to unify thoughts and actions with the Central Committee's scientific judgment and decision-making regarding the current economic situation [1] - The Chinese economy has shown resilience and vitality, achieving new results in high-quality development despite facing risks and challenges [1][2] - There is a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations [2] Group 2 - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, while stimulating consumption and expanding effective investment [2] - Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, addressing improvement demands through various approaches [2] - There is a commitment to deepen reform and opening up, fostering innovation in technology and industry, and expanding high-level foreign trade [2] Group 3 - Local governments are encouraged to enhance administrative efficiency and optimize regulatory services to create favorable conditions for citizens and businesses [3] - The meeting called for innovative thinking and improved capabilities to adapt to new situations and solve emerging problems [3] - A focus on practical efforts to improve overall government performance was highlighted [3]

Revenue Insights - National general public budget revenue from January to May 2025 was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[6] - In May 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was 0.1%, down from 1.9% in April[6] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[8] Central Government Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure from January to May 2025 was 112,953 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%[9] - In May 2025, the monthly expenditure growth rate was 2.6%, down from 5.8% in April[9] - Central government expenditure increased by 11% in May, while local government expenditure decreased to 0.9%[9] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue from January to May 2025 was 15,483 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%[17] - In May 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was -8.1%, significantly down from 8.1% in April[17] - Government fund budget expenditure from January to May 2025 was 32,125 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16%[17] Fiscal Policy Outlook - A total of 1,620 billion yuan in central funds has been allocated in January and April to support consumption initiatives[22] - An additional 1,380 billion yuan in central funds is expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters[22] - The macro policy direction is expected to remain positive, with potential marginal increases in fiscal measures[22]

报告导读： 5月央、地层面支出增速分化，前者升，后者落。这体现了中央财政在扩大 内需、保障民生方面积极发力。下半年宏观政策延续积极方向，有望边际加码。 政府性基金收入增速回落。 2025年1-5月，全国政府性基金预算收入同比下降6.9%，进度高于过去两年同期水 平，其中5月当月同比增速-8.1%，相比4月明显下滑。二季度以来，房地产需求较为疲软，土地使用权收入下 滑对政府性基金收入有所拖累。6月国常会提出，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。我们认为，房地产的供 需变化还需密切跟踪。 政府性基金支出增速下滑，节奏尚可。 2025年1-5月，全国政府性基金预算支出同比增长16%，进度高于去年 同期水平，其中5月当月同比增速8.8%，相比4月明显回落。值得一提的是，4月支出增速较高除了专项债、超 长期特别国债加快发行的支撑，也与基数扰动有关，5月支出增速虽然有所回落，但是表现尚可。 积极财政：持续发力。 今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持消费品以旧换新工作，目 前带动销售额已超过去年全年。后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。我们认为，目前外 部因素扰动影响已经不大，提振内部 ...