Key Points Costco’s Q4 earnings report easily beat Wall Street’s expectations. Its comps are rising, it’s gaining new cardholders, and it’s opening more warehouses. But a lot of its future growth is baked into its premium valuations. 10 stocks we like better than Costco Wholesale › Costco (NASDAQ: COST), the world's largest warehouse club retailer, posted its latest earnings report on Sept. 25. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended on Aug. 31, its revenue rose 8% year over year to $86 ...

Sales Performance - Net sales reached $84.4 billion, representing an 8.0% growth[4] - Comparable sales increased by 5.7%[4] - Adjusted comparable sales, excluding gasoline price and foreign exchange impacts, grew by 6.4%[4] - E-commerce comparable sales saw a 13.6% increase, with an adjusted increase of 13.5% excluding foreign exchange impacts[4] - US comparable sales increased by 5.1%, while adjusted US comparable sales grew by 6.0%[8] Financial Highlights - Net income was $2.61 billion, and diluted EPS was $5.87, representing a 10.9% and 11.0% growth respectively[9] - Gross margin increased by 13 bps compared to Q4 FY'24, and 3 bps excluding gas impact[9] - SG&A decreased by 17 bps compared to Q4 FY'24, and 9 bps excluding gas impact[9] Membership Metrics - Membership income grew by 14.0%, or 13.6% excluding foreign exchange impacts[12] - The worldwide membership renewal rate was 89.8%, with a US/CN renewal rate of 92.3%[12] - Paid memberships reached 81.0 million, a 6.3% increase[15] - Total cardholders amounted to 145.2 million, a 6.1% increase[15] Digital Performance - E-commerce comparable sales increased by 13.6%, with an adjusted increase of 13.5%[17] - E-commerce site traffic increased by 27%[20] Warehouse Expansion - The company ended FY'25 with a total of 914 warehouses, including 629 in the US, 110 in Canada, and 175 in other international locations[23] - The company plans to expand to 944 warehouses in FY'26[23]

Core Insights - Zhengzhou will be the only city in China to host both Sam's Club and Pang Donglai, marking a significant development in the retail landscape of the region [2] - The competition between these two retail giants is expected to drive upgrades in the local retail industry [5][6] - Both companies have distinct business models and strategies that cater to different consumer needs [3][4] Company Developments - Sam's Club in Zhengzhou has a total investment of approximately 720 million yuan and will cover an area of about 44.01 acres, with an expected opening in 2026 [2] - Pang Donglai's first store in Zhengzhou is set to open before New Year's Day 2026, marking its expansion outside of Henan after 18 years [2] - Pang Donglai reported a total sales of 16.964 billion yuan in 2024, while Sam's Club's annual sales exceed 100 billion yuan [5] Market Dynamics - The retail market in Henan has shown steady growth, with a total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 2.76 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [5] - Zhengzhou's retail sales surpassed 580 billion yuan, with a per capita disposable income of 48,000 yuan, reflecting a 5.8% increase [5] - The local retail ecosystem includes various established players, such as Da Zhang and Wan De Long, as well as emerging brands like Hua Yu Bai Jia and Tao Xiao Pang [6] Competitive Landscape - Sam's Club operates on a standardized membership model, focusing on providing high value and specific lifestyle solutions, with nearly 9 million members across 52 stores in 28 cities by 2024 [4] - Pang Donglai emphasizes a strong local presence and customer service, with plans to distribute 1.5 billion yuan of net profit to employees by 2025 [3] - The competition is expected to enhance the operational capabilities of other local retailers, as they adapt to the new market dynamics introduced by these two giants [7][8]

Group 1: Industry Overview - Global consumption has been experiencing persistent weakness, with the retail sector in a downward phase [1] - In China, the total retail sales reached 48.79 trillion yuan last year, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, but the growth rate has declined by 3.7 percentage points compared to 2023 [1] - In the first three quarters of last year, retail sales of 50 major retail enterprises in China fell by 5%, with at least 38 malls closing, 76% of which had been operating for over 10 years [3] Group 2: Costco's Resilience - Costco has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% in revenue over 20 years, with only one instance of negative growth during the 2008 financial crisis [3] - The company ranks 20th in the Fortune Global 500, with a market value exceeding 450 billion USD and over 890 warehouse stores worldwide [3] Group 3: Business Model Insights - Costco relies on a membership model, generating significant revenue from membership fees rather than solely from product sales [4] - As of 2024, Costco has 76.2 million paying members, with membership fee income reaching 4.828 billion USD, accounting for 65% of the company's net profit [6] - The membership renewal rate is notably high at 92.7% in North America, allowing Costco to offer low-priced products and create a positive feedback loop [6] Group 4: Product Strategy - Costco employs precise product selection and collaborates with well-known brands to ensure high-quality, cost-effective products [7] - The company utilizes data analysis and AI to predict consumer purchasing preferences, enabling customized recommendations [7] - Limited edition and seasonal products are introduced to enhance customer experience and stimulate purchasing impulses [9] Group 5: Operational Efficiency - Unlike typical supermarkets that offer a wide variety of products, Costco limits its SKU count to around 4,000, significantly lower than the typical 30,000 [10] - This strategy enhances operational efficiency, reduces management costs, and improves warehouse and logistics efficiency [10] - Costco provides a customer-friendly return policy, allowing members to return items without conditions, which alleviates customer concerns [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of the WuShang JiangTun membership store in Wuhan, which closely mimics the business model of Sam's Club, highlighting the potential for local brands to capture market share in the membership retail space despite existing competition [4][20]. Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - WuShang JiangTun membership store has adopted a membership model similar to Sam's Club, offering two tiers of membership at lower prices: 199 RMB/year for regular members and 580 RMB/year for diamond members, compared to Sam's 260 RMB and 680 RMB respectively [6][7]. - The store features a total area of approximately 20,200 square meters, comparable to Sam's Club, and aims to attract customers through a variety of exclusive member benefits [6][20]. - JiangTun is developing its own supply chain and has launched a private label "JiangTun Preferred," differentiating its product offerings from traditional supermarkets by over 80% [10][26]. Group 2: Product Offerings and Pricing - The product range at JiangTun includes fresh produce, beverages, baked goods, daily necessities, and imported goods, with some items closely resembling popular products from Sam's Club, such as the "Original Earl Grey Swiss Roll" priced at 59.8 RMB [12][10]. - The store also employs promotional strategies similar to Sam's, such as offering a chance to purchase a bottle of Moutai at 1,499 RMB under specific spending conditions [15][20]. Group 3: Market Context and Company Background - WuShang Group, the parent company of JiangTun, is a well-established retail giant in Hubei, with a history of operating various commercial entities and a focus on mid-to-high-end family consumers [21][22]. - The company has faced challenges in recent years, with a reported revenue decline of 6.6% in 2024, prompting a strategic shift towards membership-based retail to rejuvenate growth [23][25]. - The launch of JiangTun has positively impacted WuShang Group's stock price, which has increased by over 30% since early August [28]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Despite the presence of Sam's Club in Wuhan, JiangTun has garnered significant attention, indicating a potential growth opportunity in the membership retail sector [30][31]. - The article suggests that while Sam's Club has a strong global supply chain and product selection, local competitors like JiangTun may find success by catering to specific consumer needs and preferences [31][34].

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by membership-based retail, particularly focusing on the human resource aspects that are often overlooked in the context of rapid expansion and competition in the market [2][10]. Group 1: Membership Retail Dynamics - Membership retail requires a customer-centric and data-driven approach, contrasting with traditional retail's focus on traffic and sales [3][8]. - The need for continuous engagement and "freshness" for members is crucial, necessitating strong user insight and operational design capabilities among staff [3][5]. - Supply chain management in membership retail emphasizes "selection and high cost-performance," requiring precise alignment with member needs and robust control over the supply chain [5][10]. Group 2: Talent Acquisition and Retention Challenges - Rapid expansion in membership retail leads to significant talent acquisition challenges, with a competitive landscape making it difficult to find qualified personnel [10][13]. - There is a mismatch between the skills required for new roles in membership retail and the traditional standards used for evaluation, complicating recruitment efforts [10][13]. - Retaining talent is particularly difficult in key positions, with high turnover rates observed in procurement, operations, and member services [13][18]. Group 3: Training and Development Systems - Many companies face a "heavy construction, light operation" issue in talent development, often neglecting ongoing training after initial setup [15][16]. - A continuous training system is essential, covering the entire employee lifecycle and integrating learning into daily work [15][16]. - Feedback mechanisms should be established to ensure that insights from frontline employees are utilized for operational improvements [15][16]. Group 4: Learning from Successful Models - Successful companies like Hai Di Lao and Pang Dong Lai combine culture, training, and incentive mechanisms to enhance employee engagement and service quality [18][22]. - The focus should be on creating a work environment where employees feel valued and recognized, which in turn enhances customer service [18][22]. Group 5: Future Talent Structure and AI Integration - The membership retail industry must evolve its talent structure to include hybrid roles that combine business acumen with digital skills [26][28]. - Companies need to foster a data-driven culture to leverage AI for better decision-making in product selection and marketing strategies [30][31]. - Integrating technology and business operations is crucial for maximizing the value of talent and ensuring sustainable growth [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - Hema has decided to close all of its Hema X membership stores, marking a strategic shift away from its warehouse-style membership model, which was intended to compete with Costco. The closure signifies the end of a business experiment that began in 2020, while Hema Fresh and community discount stores continue to operate and expand [1][3][15]. Group 1: Business Strategy and Performance - Hema X membership stores were launched in October 2020, with membership fees set at 258 yuan/year for gold members and 658 yuan/year for diamond members, targeting middle-class and high-end consumers [3][5]. - At its peak, Hema X had 10 stores nationwide and claimed over 3 million paid members, generating nearly 600 million yuan in annual revenue [7]. - The closure of Hema X is seen as a necessary move to refocus on core businesses, with Hema Fresh operating over 420 stores and planning to open nearly 100 more in 2025, aiming for profitability with a GMV exceeding 75 billion yuan [15][29]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Hema X - Hema X faced a dual identity crisis, trying to replicate the warehouse model of Sam's Club and Costco while also maintaining its fresh supermarket roots, leading to a confusing product structure with over 5,000 SKUs [8][10]. - The membership store's pricing strategy did not offer significant advantages, with self-branded products making up only 20%-40% of offerings, and many items being priced higher than in regular stores, causing consumer dissatisfaction [11][12]. - Hema's supply chain challenges included high cold chain costs and weak bargaining power, with only 35% of products sourced globally, limiting its ability to compete on price [12][13]. Group 3: Market Context and Competitors - The closure of Hema X highlights the competitive landscape of China's membership retail market, where Sam's Club and local players like Fudi are expanding successfully by focusing on product differentiation and understanding local consumer preferences [17][18]. - Sam's Club has effectively targeted middle-class families with a clear membership structure and a focus on high-demand products, while Fudi has adopted a more flexible membership model and established a strong supply chain [22][24]. - The failure of Hema X serves as a reminder that success in the retail sector requires a deep understanding of product quality, supply chain efficiency, and respect for local consumer habits [25][28].

Core Viewpoint - Hema's closure of its X membership stores marks a strategic shift rather than a failure, as Hema Fresh and community discount stores continue to operate and expand [4][16] Group 1: Closure of Hema X Membership Stores - Hema has closed all its X membership stores by the end of July 2025, including locations in Beijing, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Shanghai [1][2] - The closure signifies the end of Hema's attempt to establish a warehouse-style membership store model, which was intended to compete with Costco [5][7] - Hema X membership stores had reached a peak of 10 locations and claimed over 3 million paid members, generating nearly 600 million yuan in annual revenue [9] Group 2: Reasons for Closure - Hema X membership stores faced a dual identity crisis, trying to replicate the warehouse model while retaining the characteristics of traditional Hema Fresh stores, leading to a confusing product mix [10][11] - The product offerings did not align with the trend of smaller household sizes in China, resulting in mismatched inventory and poor sales performance [11][12] - Hema's membership model lacked innovation in product differentiation and value, with a low percentage of self-branded products compared to competitors like Sam's Club [12][14] Group 3: Strategic Shift - Hema's decision to close X membership stores allows it to focus on its core businesses, Hema Fresh and community discount stores, aiming for operational efficiency and user segmentation [16][18] - Hema Fresh plans to open nearly 100 new stores in 2025, expanding its reach to over 500 locations [16][18] - The company is also collaborating with Taobao's 88VIP membership to broaden its member base [16][18] Group 4: Insights on Membership Retail Market - The failure of Hema X membership stores highlights the competitive landscape of China's membership retail market, contrasting with the successful expansion of Sam's Club and local players like Fudi [19][21] - Sam's Club has effectively targeted middle-class families with a clear membership pricing strategy and a focus on high-demand products, while Fudi has leveraged its supply chain to offer unique products [21][22] - The experience of Hema underscores the importance of product differentiation, understanding local consumer preferences, and the need for patience in building a sustainable retail model [27][28]

Core Insights - The membership model in China's retail market is undergoing significant changes, highlighted by the announcement of Hema X membership stores closing by the end of August 2025, which has garnered widespread attention in the industry [1] - Hema X membership stores, launched in October 2020, aimed to compete with international giants like Sam's Club and Costco, but have faced challenges leading to their impending closure [3] Group 1: Hema X Membership Store Developments - Hema X membership stores were ambitious in their launch, with the first store covering 6,000 square meters and offering 1,800 products, 30% of which were exclusive, leading to a peak membership of nearly 3 million and annual membership revenue exceeding 500 million yuan [1] - The decision to close Hema X stores is part of a strategic shift under new CEO Yan Xiaolei, who prioritizes profitability and focuses on Hema Fresh and neighborhood businesses, deeming the high investment in X membership stores misaligned with the new strategy [3] - Consumer feedback indicated that Hema X stores offered many of the same products as regular Hema Fresh stores but at higher prices, undermining the perceived value of the 258 yuan annual membership fee [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Sam's Club continues to grow despite facing quality controversies, with membership numbers exceeding 5 million and annual membership revenue surpassing 1.3 billion yuan, although it has encountered issues such as food safety problems [3] - Costco's cautious expansion in China contrasts with its global revenue growth, facing a low membership renewal rate of 62% in China compared to the global average of 90%, indicating localization challenges [5] - The membership model in China faces several challenges, including the perception of membership value, as evidenced by Hema's failure to convey unique value and the homogenization of products, while Sam's Club's quality issues threaten its competitive edge [5] Group 3: Operational and Market Challenges - The operational efficiency of membership retail is critical, relying on supply chain efficiency and cost control, which requires long-term investment, a challenge for Hema attempting to replicate Sam's decades of supply chain expertise [6] - The rise of instant retail poses a challenge to traditional membership models, as consumer habits favor immediate delivery over bulk purchasing, necessitating membership retailers to enhance their online and instant delivery capabilities [6]

Core Insights - The closure of Hema X membership stores marks the end of Hema's attempt to create a Chinese version of Sam's Club, with the first store opening in October 2020 and all stores closing within five years [1] - Hema X membership stores initially expanded rapidly, reaching ten locations and accumulating nearly 3 million members, generating over 500 million yuan in annual membership fees [1][2] - The strategic decision to close Hema X stores is part of a broader plan to focus on Hema Fresh and neighborhood businesses, as the membership model did not align with the new strategy [2] Hema X Membership Store Performance - Hema X membership stores faced challenges as they offered many of the same products as regular Hema Fresh stores but at higher prices, undermining the value of membership fees [2] - Attempts to lower prices to attract customers led to a deviation from the high-end membership positioning, ultimately resulting in the suspension of membership renewals [2] Competitor Analysis - Sam's Club remains a leader in the industry, with membership numbers exceeding 5 million and annual membership revenue surpassing 1.3 billion yuan, despite facing quality complaints [2] - Costco's cautious expansion in China reflects challenges such as high logistics costs and poor product adaptability, resulting in a membership renewal rate below the global average [4] Industry Challenges - The development of membership retail in China faces hurdles, including consumer perception of membership value, localization issues, and operational efficiency [6] - The rise of instant retail is challenging traditional membership models, pushing retailers to enhance online capabilities and instant delivery services [6] Future Directions - The membership retail sector in China needs to reconstruct its value system, accelerate supply chain localization and digitalization, and explore diversified membership services [8] - Hema's exit serves as a warning to other players in the industry to prioritize quality and service alongside expansion efforts [8]