参考历史春季躁动涨幅经验，我们认为本轮春季行情更偏向于可交易度较高的明显上涨行情，短期消化 市场情绪后，后续仍有上行空间。随着上市公司年度业绩预告披露窗口开启，预计市场逻辑将逐步从估 值修复转向盈利增长。 行业配置上，业绩兑现重要性有望边际提升，围绕核心科技+制造主线。科技制造方向，优先关注有业 绩支撑的海外算力&存储&消费电子&风电储能等方向，当前这些方向交易拥挤度均未过高，仍有逢低 买入的空间。此外，对于一季度有业绩基本面改善催化的低位创新药、游戏等科技方向或也有望轮动 到。最后，考虑到年末商业航天等科技主题当前已有可观收益，后续高风偏、量化资金的轮动会寻找新 的主题方向，建议关注2026年有望进入产业化投资早期的方向，包括固态电池、智能驾驶、机器人等科 技主题。价值方向，全球制造业共振是相对明确的景气度方向，背后是财政、货币双宽松均会受益的方 向，AI投资和传统制造业投资的K型分化有望收敛。优先关注出口链中制造业（有色/电网设备/工程机 械），与新兴市场相关的地产链（家电）和汽车链（轮胎）也相对关注；此外，流动性驱动主导受益的 非银（保险/券商/金融IT）和保险资金偏好主导的高股息（银行/煤炭/白电等消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market in December 2025 shows a significant characteristic of "sector concentration and stock differentiation," with high elasticity opportunities concentrated in policy-sensitive sectors and clearly defined industrial trends [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The strongest structural directions are from non-ferrous metals, military industry, and price increases, driven by supply-demand gaps and policy-driven market rallies [1][7]. - The National Space Administration's release of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Commercial Aerospace" and the establishment of the Human Robot Standardization Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have directly boosted the aerospace, defense, and robotics sectors [1][7]. - Looking ahead to January 2026, the market may refocus on performance and liquidity improvements, with expectations for a stable start to the domestic economy despite current weak demand [1][7]. Group 2: Key Upcoming Events - The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on January 23 is crucial, as the previous meeting raised the benchmark rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, indicating a clear policy direction [2][8]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 28 is anticipated to maintain the current rate, with expectations for a new chairperson to emerge, potentially influencing global capital markets [3][8]. - By January 31, A-share listed companies must release performance forecasts for 2025, which may impact market pricing based on industry performance [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - In January, the importance of performance realization increases, with a focus on core technology and manufacturing sectors, particularly in overseas computing power, storage, consumer electronics, and wind energy storage [4][8]. - There is potential for rotation into low-position innovative drugs and gaming sectors, which may see fundamental improvements in Q1 [4][8]. - The global manufacturing sector is expected to resonate in 2026, benefiting from fiscal and monetary easing, with a focus on manufacturing in the export chain and related sectors such as real estate and automotive [9].

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities suggests that investors should not fall into the "deposit migration" self-referential cycle when the market hits a 10-year high, and recommends early positioning in sectors with the greatest marginal improvement in fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The prospect of a recovery in manufacturing sentiment has become clearer following the opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window in September [1] - There is a noted difference in sensitivity to interest rate declines, indicating a potential shift in investment focus [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The main investment theme may transition from cash flow-driven AI investments to credit-driven traditional manufacturing investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investors should avoid falling into a "deposit migration" cycle and instead seek areas with the greatest marginal improvement in fundamentals for future investments, especially in light of the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 1 - The market has reached a 10-year high, prompting a need for strategic investment rather than reactive behavior [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for a recovery in manufacturing sector performance following the expected interest rate cuts [1] - A potential shift in investment focus is anticipated, moving from AI-driven investments based on operating cash flow to traditional manufacturing investments driven by credit [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that investors should not fall into the "deposit migration" self-referential loop and should seek areas with the greatest marginal improvement in fundamentals for early positioning [1][5] - Following the Jackson Hole meeting, the outlook for manufacturing recovery has become clearer, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus from cash flow-driven AI investments to credit-driven traditional manufacturing investments [1][5] Group 2 - Since the tariff conflict in April, global stock markets have shown significant increases, with A-shares outperforming other major indices due to improved manufacturing sentiment and a rising demand sensitivity from Chinese enterprises [2] - The strong performance of A-shares is attributed to the independent market dynamics, as they are less reliant on a single external market and benefit from various domestic industrial policies [2] Group 3 - The current market state shows accelerated industry rotation and a trend of "high cutting low" among individual stocks, with TMT and military sectors leading in gains, while overall valuations have reached historical highs [3] - The internal valuation differences among stocks in the growth sector are narrowing, indicating a potential focus on eliminating undervalued stocks, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry and the ChiNext index [3] Group 4 - The next phase of market drivers will be the realization of profit improvement expectations, as many weighty assets remain undervalued due to low economic sentiment [4] - The easing of financial conditions historically strengthens manufacturing over services, leading to increased physical consumption per unit of GDP and a favorable environment for physical asset demand [4] Group 5 - The report suggests that with the recovery of overseas manufacturing, physical assets such as industrial metals and capital goods will benefit, highlighting opportunities in the investment and consumption sectors due to industry chain restructuring [5] - The insurance sector's long-term asset side is expected to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms [5] Group 6 - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to a convergence of A and H shares, with corporate profit changes becoming the driving force behind performance differences in the two markets [6]