随着美股基准股指——标普500指数在2025年跑输大多数国际股票市场，长期席卷市场的"美国例外主义论调"触顶并开 启回撤轨迹，全球投资者们愈发聚焦于非美国股市，尤其是欧洲股市。根据华尔街金融巨头高盛集团策略师们的最新观 点，由于投资者们寻求从美国市场及其集中于高估值科技股的结构中更进一步分散资金配置，继2025年跑赢美股后，欧 洲股市今年有望获得强劲提振。 包括Sharon Bell和Peter Oppenheimer在内的高盛策略师团队将欧股基准指数——泛欧Stoxx600指数的年末目标点位上调 至625点，不过这意味着较该指数的周一创纪录收盘价仅仅上涨约4%，意味着高盛对于欧股仍偏谨慎。整体来看，这一 预测使得高盛处于面向华尔街分析师非正式调查中较为看多的一端，非正式调查所显示的华尔街策略师平均预测为620 点。高盛还表示，今年对于欧洲小盘股来说可能是个积极的年头。 "鉴于美国市场既昂贵又在风险敞口上高度集中，我们主张进行分散资金配置。"高盛策略师们在一份报告中写道。他们 表示，以美国市场为基地的投资者们仍然担心美元走弱带来的风险敞口，并希望在世界其他地区挖掘替代性的股票价值 增长来源。 如上图所示，与估 ...

证券研究报告：证券Ⅱ|行业周报 发布时间：2025-12-22 行业投资评级 中性|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 6920.08 | | 52 周最高 | 7730.11 | | 52 周最低 | 5627.38 | 行业相对指数表现 -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王泽军 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110003 Email:wangzejun@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《股基成交维持高位，估值未快速上 行》 - 2025.12.15 证券行业报告 （2025.12.15-2025.12.19） 两融资金未大规模撤离，债券交易沪强深弱 ⚫ 投资要点 宏观流动性层面宽松，资金面压力缓解，为券商的重资本业务（如 自营投资、两融业务）提供了稳定的负债端成本优势。股基成交额的 持续高企，将转化为券商佣金收入的支撑。融资客户的持仓周期似有 拉长， ...

Core Insights - The financial system is implementing a "precision drip irrigation" strategy to support the economy, focusing on both enhancing financial services and reducing financing costs [1][2][3] - The year 2025 is marked by significant improvements in financial support for the real economy, characterized by longer loan terms, lower interest rates, and higher credit limits for technology enterprises [2][3] - Financial policies are shifting towards a more flexible and supportive stance, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing costs for businesses [4][5] Group 1: Financial Support and Economic Empowerment - Financial support for technology companies is exemplified by the case of TeraCharge, which received a 20 billion yuan loan at a 2.85% annual interest rate to expand its charging network [1] - By the end of October, TeraCharge had established 280 smart charging stations, with a 15% increase in charging efficiency due to financial backing [1] - The financial sector's focus on "precision drip irrigation" has led to a significant increase in loans to key sectors, with a loan balance of 107.5 trillion yuan in the "five major articles" area, accounting for nearly 40% of total loans [2] Group 2: Cost Reduction and Financial Efficiency - The financial sector has successfully reduced financing costs, with a 10 basis point decrease in loan market quotation rates (LPR) and a weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans around 3.1% [3] - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans has further alleviated financial burdens for consumers, enhancing market vitality [4] - Monetary policy has shifted to a moderately loose stance, with a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4] Group 3: Financial Market Stability and Risk Management - The financial market has shown resilience amid external pressures, with effective resource allocation and risk pricing mechanisms in place [5][6] - The central bank has provided ample liquidity to stabilize the capital market, enhancing investor confidence and improving the equity financing environment [6] - By the end of September, foreign institutions held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks and bonds, reflecting increased international confidence in the Chinese market [6] Group 4: Financial Reform and Opening Up - Financial reforms have focused on systematic risk clearance, cautious opening up, and targeted financial transformation [8][9] - The number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debt have significantly decreased, indicating effective risk mitigation [8] - The financial market's opening has been deepened, with reduced entry barriers for foreign financial institutions and improved business environments, attracting global capital [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Energy Transfer has been rated "Outperform" by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) with a target price of $23, indicating nearly 30% upside potential from the current closing price of $17.7 [1] - Energy Transfer possesses a large and integrated asset base covering all segments of the midstream value chain, creating a comprehensive investment portfolio from wellhead to water [1] - The company is expected to benefit from sustained earnings growth driven by both short-term and future thematic demand, with projected average capital expenditures of approximately $4.9 billion from fiscal years 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 2 - Energy Transfer is highly active in mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a strong willingness to spend, which keeps its stock price relatively undervalued in the long term [2] - The company's complex corporate structure and somewhat complicated capital structure further contribute to its valuation challenges [2] - Although the current discount in valuation is not expected to disappear completely, it is anticipated to narrow to a more reasonable range compared to current levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The healthcare sector is showing initial signs of recovery after reaching a 30-year high in valuation discount relative to the S&P 500 index [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Since reaching a historical high on September 3, 2024, healthcare stocks have been in a "persistent downtrend," underperforming both in absolute terms and relative to the S&P 500 [1] - August is identified as a turning point for the sector, with healthcare stocks beginning to reverse their previous weak performance [1] Group 2: Economic Environment - The recovery is driven by a historically significant valuation gap and an economic backdrop characterized by GDP growth slowing to 1.5% or lower while inflation remains at 3% or higher, which historically favors the healthcare sector [1] - The dual effect of valuation discount and improved sentiment provides strong justification for including healthcare stocks in investment portfolios under the current economic conditions [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Evercore ISI highlights several healthcare stocks with attractive valuations and sentiment, including Cencora (COR.US), BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN.US), Cigna (CI.US), Cardinal Health (CAH.US), Humana (HUM.US), Incyte (INCY.US), LabCorp (LH.US), Pfizer (PFE.US), Quest Diagnostics (DGX.US), Teleflex (TFX.US), Tenet Healthcare (THC.US), Universal Health Services (UHS.US), and Viatris (VTRS.US) [2]

Group 1 - The healthcare sector is showing initial signs of recovery after reaching a 30-year high in valuation discount relative to the S&P 500 index [1][2] - Healthcare stocks have been in a "persistent downtrend" since reaching historical highs on September 3, 2024, missing out on market rebounds [1] - The recovery is driven by a historical valuation gap and a macroeconomic environment characterized by GDP growth slowing to 1.5% or lower while inflation remains at 3% or higher, which historically favors healthcare sector performance [1] Group 2 - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the overall market is 25.5 times, while healthcare stocks still present attractive investment options [2] - The potential recovery of healthcare stocks is described as part of "the fastest bear market rebound in history," indicating a larger bull market may extend until 2026 [2] - Evercore ISI recommends healthcare stocks with both valuation and sentiment appeal, including Cencora, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Cigna, Cardinal Health, Humana, Incyte, Labcorp, Pfizer, Quest Diagnostics, Teleflex, Tenet Healthcare, Universal Health Services, and Viatris [2]