市场今天大涨，如今的A股，满脑门都是主角光环——你觉得他可能快凉了，得下线歇歇了，他就又能捡回一个血包，续一天，今天阿里的发布 会，直接就把半导体产业链点燃了。 牛市就是这样，给点利好就能灿烂，大家默认后面还有很多好东西，还没拿出来，反正我不是接最后一棒的就行 。 不过，也要看到， 资金的虹吸效应是很强的 ，今天半导体设备一度涨停，就直接把光模块的裤子给扒了，光模块一度大跌4%，"易中天"开盘都 是跌5个点起步，在全市场垫底，还是昨天说的，轮动在加速，配置要均衡啊。 ...... 今天是 0924行情的一周年 ，我们先趁这个机会，回顾一下过去的一年，下半部分，再接着聊市场把。 我还是做了几张图，供大家参考。 第一，过去一周年，那些叹为观止的涨幅。 下图，是我拉的，过去一周年，A股、港股、海外主要指数的涨幅情况（三种不同的颜色）。 可以看到几个现象。 1、涨幅100%以上，也就是 翻倍的指数 ，包括了北证50、科创50、微盘股、港股创新药、创业板指； 2、表现相对最差的， 中证红利全收益 ，也跑赢了处于牛市之中的标普500，而在中国科技面前，纳指100阶段性的变成了弟弟； 3、过去一年涨了40%的 黄金 ，只能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical patterns of bull and bear markets in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of valuation uplift as a primary driver of market performance, and the role of active management in different market phases [3][4][6][14]. Group 1: Historical Market Patterns - Since 2000, there have been six identifiable bull and bear cycles in the A-share market, with each cycle showing a consistent pattern of valuation uplift driving market performance [3]. - The first bull market (2005-2007) was unique as it was driven by both valuation uplift and a comprehensive economic recovery, while the subsequent five bull markets were primarily driven by valuation uplift alone [3][4]. - The current bull market (2024.09-present) has seen a valuation uplift from 12 to 16.2 times, representing a 35% increase, driven by policy support and liquidity easing [3]. Group 2: Active vs. Passive Management - In the early stages of a bull market, passive index funds (ETFs) tend to outperform due to their high exposure to the rising market [6][8]. - As the market matures, active management funds leverage their expertise to identify high-potential stocks, often outperforming passive funds [8][9]. - Historical examples show that during the mid to late stages of bull markets, active funds can significantly exceed index performance, highlighting the importance of active management in volatile markets [9][13]. Group 3: Market Participation - The article emphasizes that the timing of market peaks and troughs can only be understood retrospectively, suggesting that continuous market participation is essential for capitalizing on opportunities [14][16]. - It advocates for a balanced approach to investment, combining both active and passive strategies to navigate the complexities of the market [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between interest rates and valuations, emphasizing that not all declining interest rate environments will lead to valuation increases. It outlines two primary methods for valuation enhancement: through accelerated growth or rising ROE, and through a low interest rate environment [3][23]. Group 1: Valuation Enhancement Methods - Valuation can be enhanced through two methods: one is during the accelerated growth or ROE upturn phase, and the other is in a low interest rate environment [3][23]. - In a low interest rate environment, the valuation is influenced by both the numerator (ROE) and the denominator (interest rates and risk premiums) [4][30]. - The relationship between valuation and ROE is positively correlated across countries, while the relationship between valuation and interest rates varies, showing positive, weak, or negative correlations depending on the country [4][31]. Group 2: Scenarios for Valuation Increase - Valuation increases during a declining interest rate phase are most evident in environments of extreme liquidity, where short-term real interest rates drop significantly [7][42]. - If economic recovery is strong, valuations will rise alongside interest rates due to inflation expectations, as seen in the post-pandemic U.S. [8][47]. - In cases of economic deflation, profit and inflation expectations may lead to further declines in valuations, as observed in Japan in the 1990s and Italy in the 2010s [8][47]. Group 3: Valuation and Interest Rate Dynamics - The average PB valuation low point for developed countries is 0.85 times, corresponding to an average interest rate of 2.46% [9][10]. - The low point of valuations is influenced by fundamentals, while the low point of interest rates is determined by monetary liquidity [9][10]. - Countries with strong fundamentals (e.g., U.S., Japan, Germany, France) tend to see valuation increases in sectors with comparative advantages, such as consumer discretionary, technology, and healthcare [12][47]. Group 4: A-share Market Valuation Potential - As interest rates decline, the extent of valuation increases diminishes, indicating a reduced sensitivity of valuations to interest rates [15][17]. - For example, when interest rates are at 4%, a 20% decline leads to a 16.9% increase in valuation; however, at 1.6%, the same decline results in only a 9.5% increase [15][16]. Group 5: Sector Performance During Interest Rate Changes - In the A-share market, sectors such as utilities and coal saw valuation increases when interest rates fell from 3.2% to 2.2%, while sectors driven by economic conditions, like TMT, performed better when rates fell from 2.2% to 1.6% [17][20]. - The performance of stable assets may not yield excess returns in the later stages of declining interest rates, as market dynamics shift towards growth-oriented assets [17][20].