消息面上，据媒体报道，促消费扩投资"双引擎"发力，各地瞄准扩大内需激活经济。"坚持内需主导， 建设强大国内市场"位列2026年经济工作八大重点任务之首。新年伊始，各地瞄准扩大内需持续发 力，"两新"补贴激活家电市场，餐饮、电影等行业迎来客流高峰，大项目集中开工，"两重"建设有序开 展。受访专家表示，各地通过提振消费和拉动投资，不断增强内需的主动力和稳定锚作用，为经济持续 回升向好提供支撑。 1月9日，截至发稿，恒生指数上涨0.28%，中证港股通消费主题人民币指数(931455.CSI)下跌0.01%，该 指数成分股中，蜜雪集团上涨超4%，布鲁可与毛戈平上涨超3%，卫龙美味与申洲国际上涨超2%。 相关ETF方面，港股消费ETF(159735.SZ)截至发稿上涨0.5%，成交额超200万元，实时溢价率为0.28%。 资金流向方面，该ETF上个交易日(1月8日)净流入额为1841.28万元。该ETF最新流通份额为9.43亿份， 最新流通规模为7.58亿元。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权 ...

Core Insights - The report introduces a new two-dimensional framework for analyzing industry prosperity, focusing on diffusion and dispersion metrics to provide a fresh perspective on investment strategies [1][2]. - It emphasizes the importance of absolute high prosperity over marginal high prosperity, indicating that long-term perspectives yield higher returns on earnings per share (EPS) [2][16]. - The report constructs a prosperity investment effectiveness index based on quarterly year-over-year (Q-YOY) data, which shows better performance than cumulative year-over-year (C-YOY) data [2][23]. Traditional One-Dimensional Prosperity Comparison - The report critiques the traditional one-dimensional approach that uses a single profitability growth rate for each industry, which simplifies market narratives to "who is accelerating and who is declining" [2][12]. - It raises questions about the importance of single-quarter versus cumulative profitability data, concluding that single-quarter data yields better investment outcomes [2][12][16]. - The report highlights that absolute high prosperity is more significant than marginal high prosperity, as evidenced by better net value performance in absolute high prosperity groups [2][16]. Two-Dimensional Prosperity Measurement - The report proposes measuring structural prosperity through two indicators: diffusion (measuring breadth) and dispersion (measuring structural strength) [2][2]. - It notes that the diffusion index influences "positioning," while the dispersion index affects "industry allocation bias" [2][2]. - The report suggests that the dispersion index is highly correlated with China's Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating that higher dispersion often coincides with rising PPI phases [2][14]. Application of the Two-Dimensional Framework - The report discusses the strategic value of diffusion and dispersion, asserting that they can better reflect the current market state than traditional methods [2][2]. - It emphasizes the need to analyze the composition of dispersion values to understand structural market trends, particularly in technology sectors [2][21]. - The report concludes that differentiation is the foundation of effective prosperity investment, with expectations for continued upward trends in diffusion and dispersion indices [2][24]. Conclusion and Outlook - The report anticipates that both diffusion and dispersion will likely trend upward, supporting the market's beta value [2][24]. - It recommends focusing on technology sectors such as computers, communications, and advanced manufacturing, as well as cyclical resource sectors like steel and chemicals [2][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the market is more focused on industry-level prosperity rather than individual stock profit growth elasticity [4][6][11] - The report indicates that marginal changes in industry performance may be more significant than simply high prosperity levels [7][22][25] - For industry trend markets, the report notes that the market tends to price absolute profit growth rather than marginal changes [8][30][32] Group 2 - The report highlights that the prosperity style has been dominant throughout the year but has started to weaken recently [11][12] - It is observed that while TMT industries have a high proportion of prosperity at the industry level, this advantage is not as evident at the individual stock level [17][20] - The report suggests that aside from TMT, there are other industries worth attention that meet the criteria of high prosperity and high marginal change [35][36]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of industry rotation in the A-share market, indicating a shift from sustained single-line trends to rapid sector changes, with the industry rotation index showing increased activity since 2023 [13][14] - It emphasizes the scarcity of fundamentally strong investment opportunities, suggesting that while growth investment remains relevant, the range of viable options has significantly narrowed compared to the past two decades [20][19] - The report identifies the importance of "crowding" and "calendar effects" as tools for navigating the current market dynamics, with a focus on how these metrics can guide investment strategies [37][38] Group 1: Industry Rotation Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a notable increase in industry rotation speed, with the duration of dominant trends decreasing from 6-12 months in previous years to approximately 2 months in 2023 [13][14] - The report outlines that the current market environment is characterized by a blend of "extreme rotation" and "absolute low volatility," where thematic investments and stable fundamental assets coexist [4][5] - The report provides a comparative analysis of industry performance, indicating that sectors such as military, robotics, and software are expected to benefit from low crowding and catalysts in the near term [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - For active funds, the report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth trends and catalysts, particularly in the context of the upcoming quarterly reports [6] - It recommends maintaining positions in sectors like computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while also noting the potential for increased allocations in dividend-paying sectors such as banks and home appliances as the year-end approaches [6] - The report highlights the significance of calendar effects, suggesting that both active and long-term investors may find opportunities for positioning in the market during specific periods [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the period after the National Day holiday is a traditional window for risk appetite to rise, with a significant increase in market win rates, particularly favoring technology growth sectors [1][2] - Historically, after the National Day holiday, the broad market indices show a notable increase in win rates, with growth styles being more dominant, especially in sectors represented by TMT, advanced manufacturing, and export chains [1][2] Group 2 - In October, the hardware segment within TMT is expected to outperform due to earnings disclosures, the concentration of new product launches, and the upcoming Double Eleven sales season [4] - The effectiveness of investment in sectors with favorable economic conditions is expected to increase in October, as the correlation between stock price movements and earnings growth improves as the third-quarter report disclosure period approaches [6] Group 3 - Since September, the industries with upward revisions in profit expectations are primarily concentrated in AI (gaming, computer equipment, communication devices, components), advanced manufacturing (motorcycles, aerospace equipment, home appliance components, batteries, medical services), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, glass fiber, steel, agricultural chemicals), consumption (beverages, dairy products, seasoning and fermentation products, pet economy, jewelry), and finance (brokerage, insurance, city commercial banks) [7][9] - The profit revision ratios and expected profit growth rates for various sectors indicate a strong performance in technology, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical sectors, with notable companies highlighted in each category [9] Group 4 - The intensity of industry rotation is expected to converge in October, with a consensus forming around the economic growth themes as the market focuses on the clues from the third-quarter reports [10][11] - October is identified as a traditional window for the convergence of industry rotation intensity and market consensus, suggesting a structural focus on key themes for trading [10][11]

Market Review - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations this week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain strengthened significantly, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 6.47%, driven by increased capital expenditure in the AI sector and breakthroughs in domestic lithography technology. Conversely, the consumer sector weakened, with indices in social services, retail, light industry, and textiles showing the largest declines. Market turnover decreased marginally, with net inflows of financing funds maintained, and stock ETFs saw a net subscription of 231 billion yuan this week. In the commodity market, internationally priced commodities strengthened, while domestically priced black commodities declined. The dollar index rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returning to around 4.2%, and the RMB depreciated against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to experience temporary fluctuations, with a "slow bull" market continuing. After a trend-driven rise in July and August, funding divergence has increased since September. With the upcoming long holiday, external funds entering the market may slow down, leading to potential short-term adjustments in both markets. However, the current bull market is still in play, supported by ample micro liquidity, policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market, and long-term capital inflows. Despite weak economic data, the effects of "anti-involution" policies are beginning to show, leading to marginal improvements in long-term profit expectations for A-shares. Key areas of focus include: - The technology sector remains the main focus, with both "prosperity investment" and "thematic investment" expected to coexist in October. Internal rotation within growth sectors is anticipated to accelerate, particularly in AI downstream applications, solid-state batteries, energy storage, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Attention should also be given to non-tech sectors showing positive trends, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and engineering machinery [2][3]. International Perspective - On the international front, the Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts have been implemented, but there is increasing divergence regarding future rate cut paths. In September, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, with projections indicating a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year. However, there is significant disagreement among Fed officials regarding future cuts, with 9 out of 19 officials expecting two more cuts in 2025, while others foresee no further reductions. Current U.S. economic data remains resilient, and Fed Chair Powell's cautious signals regarding rate cuts suggest a potentially complicated path ahead [3]. Supply-Side Policies - The impact of supply-side "anti-involution" policies is gradually becoming evident, with industrial profits rebounding in August. Year-on-year growth in industrial profits for August was 20.4%, improving from a -1.7% decline in July to a cumulative growth of 0.9%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of -2.9% year-on-year, marking the first contraction since March. This improvement is attributed to a low base effect and the gradual impact of supply-side policies, which have led to price increases in upstream commodities. The central bank has emphasized the challenges of insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, with recent policies aimed at boosting prices being implemented [3]. Structural Trends - In terms of structure, the technology sector is experiencing numerous catalysts, with high growth expectations for TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors. The new wave of technological advancements driven by AI is accelerating across various fields. Key factors include the increasing clarity of domestic and international AI industry trends, rapid growth in the performance of leading companies, and a focus on hard technology and new production capabilities in upcoming policy meetings. Market consensus on profit expectations indicates high growth for growth sectors in 2025, including military electronics, software development, IT services, optical electronics, gaming, new energy, semiconductors, and communication equipment [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity situation in the A-share market remains ample. In August, non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion yuan year-on-year, and the M1-M2 negative differential continues to narrow, reflecting a positive impact on residents' risk appetite. Unlike the previous "structural bull" market from 2019 to 2021, where residents favored active funds, this bull market sees a preference for passive investment products. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the net asset value of stock ETFs has rapidly expanded, with index funds consistently outpacing active equity funds for three consecutive quarters, further promoting the trend towards indexation in the industry. The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with funding rates trending downward and bank wealth management products yielding historically low returns, suggesting that micro liquidity in the A-share market is likely to remain ample in the fourth quarter [3].

Macro Strategy Highlights - The market consensus has been strong since August, with industry rotation intensity showing a seasonal decline, while September is traditionally a window for upward industry rotation intensity [1] - As the third-quarter report disclosure period approaches in late September to October, the correlation between stock prices and performance will gradually increase, marking a phase of enhanced effectiveness for cyclical investments [1] - Key areas to focus on include Hong Kong internet stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy sectors, which are expected to benefit from interest rate cuts and industry catalysts [1][2][3] Industry Tracking - The Hong Kong internet sector is positioned to benefit from interest rate cuts and AI expansion, with platforms that have the best social scenarios and ecosystems likely to see early gains [1] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has reached a moderate level of crowding, with sentiment sufficiently digested, and is expected to see catalysts from industry conferences in September and Q4 [1] - The new energy sector is driven by technological breakthroughs and anti-involution trends, providing a flexible new direction [2] - The new consumption sector has high odds currently, with seasonal catalysts and improved cyclical expectations enhancing success rates [3] - The cyclical sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals and chemicals, are experiencing multiple catalysts, with leading chemical companies showing a high safety margin in valuations [3]

Group 1 - The market has entered a rotation and diffusion phase, which is expected to continue in the near future [1][2] - Investment effectiveness is improving as the market shifts its focus towards economic conditions and industry trends [1][2] - The report suggests five key areas for investment: Hong Kong internet stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, breakthroughs in new energy technology, new consumption, and cyclical industries driven by multiple catalysts [1][2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the market is looking for signs of economic improvement as it approaches the earnings season [1][2] - The sentiment towards innovative pharmaceuticals has fully digested, leading to a revaluation driven by business development and commercialization [1][2] - New consumption is highlighted as having high odds, with seasonal catalysts expected to enhance success rates [1][2]

Group 1: Industry Index Pool Construction - The report outlines the construction of an industry index pool that combines investability and representativeness, focusing on passive products tracking strong industry attributes [10][12]. - Since 2020, the scale of industry ETFs has experienced explosive growth, increasing from 85.8 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to over 310 billion yuan by the end of 2020, and approaching 900 billion yuan by August 2025 [10]. - The report categorizes various industry ETFs, highlighting that TMT, financial real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors have surpassed 100 billion yuan in ETF scale [10]. Group 2: Economic Prosperity Investment Practices - The report discusses the calculation of expected ROE growth for industries based on analysts' profit forecasts, comparing two fiscal years (FY1 and FY2) [20][21]. - It emphasizes that the FY2 grouping shows stronger monotonicity in performance compared to FY1, indicating better returns for the former [23][24]. - The backtesting period for the economic prosperity factor spans from January 1, 2018, to September 12, 2025, with a focus on marginal changes in industry index prosperity [27]. Group 3: Economic Trend Resonance Strategy - The economic trend resonance strategy combines fundamental marginal improvements with capital consensus, utilizing trend factors to quantify market sentiment [36][38]. - The constructed economic trend resonance portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 12.33% since 2018, outperforming the CSI 800 index by 11.13% [40][42]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate stands at 64%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.30 [45]. Group 4: Economic Trend and Crowding Avoidance Strategy - The strategy integrates economic trend analysis with crowding avoidance to mitigate risks associated with overheated trading [49]. - The three-dimensional strategy has yielded an annualized return of 12.80% since 2018, exceeding the CSI 800 index by 11.60% [52][54]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate is 62%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.47 [57]. Group 5: Current Industry Characteristics - As of August 2025, the report identifies industries that align with the economic trend resonance and crowding avoidance strategy, including the transportation index, home appliances, livestock, media, and oil and gas sectors [60]. - The expected growth rates for these sectors range from 1.1% to 9.6%, with varying levels of crowding and valuation metrics [60].

Group 1 - The market is transitioning from extreme differentiation to a phase of rotation and diffusion, with structural changes being more important than rhythm in a healthy bull market [1][4] - The industry rotation intensity indicator has started to recover from previous lows, indicating that the market is seeking opportunities through rotation and diffusion [1][4] - Seasonal patterns suggest that September is a traditional window for industry rotation to increase, providing opportunities for new growth directions [5][8] Group 2 - The focus should be on expanding based on economic and industrial trends rather than merely seeking low positions, enhancing the probability of success [8][10] - The second half of September to October is a period where the effectiveness of economic investments is expected to improve, with stock prices becoming more correlated with performance as the third-quarter reporting period approaches [8][10] Group 3 - Key sectors to focus on include Hong Kong internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, new consumption, and cyclical industries (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) [15][19] - The Hong Kong internet sector has significant room for rebound due to macroeconomic conditions and industry trends, particularly with the upcoming interest rate cuts and advancements in AI [16][19] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen sufficient emotional digestion, with leading companies like BeiGene and WuXi AppTec showing strong performance [21][22] Group 4 - The new energy sector is expected to attract funds seeking flexible returns, driven by technological breakthroughs and a reversal of previous downturns [23][26] - The new consumption sector is positioned for potential gains due to low crowding and seasonal catalysts from upcoming holidays, making it a promising area for investment [29][32] Group 5 - The cyclical industries (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) are benefiting from overseas monetary easing and a reversal of previous competitive pressures, providing multiple catalysts for growth [35]