8月22日,A股市场延续上攻态势,沪指突破3800点,创下10年新高。2024年924行情以来,A股走出了一轮显 著持续的上涨行情。上证指数从 2771 点,上升到 3800点以上,涨幅超37%。不少投资者关心,这轮上涨处 于牛市哪个阶段? 3800点上涨动力在哪? 今年以来,大多数的行业都在上涨,煤炭、食品饮料板块收负,通信、有色金属、医药生物、电子、国防军 工涨幅居前。 6月以来,散户新增开户数相较年初科技行情和去年"924"行情增长相对偏缓,但机构新增开户数持续攀升 至历史高位,基本恢复至2021年的高位水平。 资料来源:Wind 机构开户热情增长下,权益基金新发有望继续改善。历史上机构新开户数与权益基金新发规模显著正相 关。机构开户热情增长下,后续权益基金新发有望继续改善。资产端与负债端的正反馈有望逐步形成,新 一轮牛市或已在途。 牛市走到哪里了? 数据来源:wind ,申万一级行业指数 时间区间:截至8月21日 对于此轮上涨行情,方正富邦基金首席投资官汤戈认为,主要是低利率环境下流动性充裕,长期资金稳步入 市托举市场,投资者风险偏好回升,市场上涨赚钱效应进一步提升风险偏好,带动增量资金入场,形成正反 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model: DeepSeek-R1 - **Model Construction Idea**: The DeepSeek-R1 model aims to innovate in AI technology by reducing dependency on high-end imported GPUs and enhancing cost-effectiveness and performance in global markets[5][12][30] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model is based on the DeepSeek-V3 architecture and applies reinforcement learning techniques during the post-training phase to significantly improve inference capabilities with minimal labeled data[33] - The model's performance in tasks such as mathematics, coding, and natural language inference is on par with OpenAI's o1 official version[33] - The team also introduced six distilled small models using knowledge distillation techniques, with the 32B and 70B versions surpassing OpenAI o1-mini in several capabilities[34] - The model's training cost was $5.576 million, only 1/10th of GPT-4o's training cost, and its API call cost is 1/30th of OpenAI's similar services[38] - **Formula**: $$ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}} $$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is highly cost-effective and adaptable to different application environments, breaking the traditional AI industry's reliance on "stacking computing power and capital"[38][43] Model Backtesting Results - **DeepSeek-R1 Model**: - **AIME pass@1**: 9.3 - **AIME cons@64**: 13.4 - **MATH-500 pass@1**: 74.6 - **GPQA Diamond pass@1**: 49.9 - **LiveCodeBench pass@1**: 32.9 - **CodeForces rating**: 759.0[36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: SUE is used to measure the growth potential and latest marginal changes in the prosperity of the industry and individual stocks[57] - **Factor Construction Process**: - SUE is calculated as: $$ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}} $$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - **Factor Evaluation**: SUE effectively measures future earnings growth and the latest marginal changes in prosperity, representing the future trend changes in the industry[57] Factor Backtesting Results - **SUE Factor**: - **2022**: -29.8% - **2023**: 15.9% - **2024**: 20.1% - **2025 YTD**: 11.0%[65]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices collectively rose this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, increasing over 2% [1] - The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices saw weekly gains of 1.25% and 0.49%, respectively [1] - The upward trend of the market is supported by liquidity and ongoing policy measures, which are expected to optimize supply and demand dynamics [1] Economic Indicators - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion for three months [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [2] Investment Insights - Dongwu Securities indicates a solid upward trend in the market, with expectations for overall profitability and return on equity (ROE) to stabilize and improve [4] - The market is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, with a focus on high-quality technology assets that may yield significant excess returns in Q3 [5][9] - Open-source Securities highlights a "dual-driven" market theme, with increasing margin financing balances and a clearer market direction driven by technology and PPI trading [6] Sector Focus - Investment opportunities are emerging in technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and high-end manufacturing, as well as in defensive high-dividend sectors [7][8] - Allianz Fund anticipates significant excess returns for quality technology assets in Q3, driven by a new cycle of value reassessment in the A-share market [9] - Citic Prudential Fund emphasizes the certainty of opportunities in manufacturing companies, particularly those with improving profitability and relatively low valuations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of A-share listed companies in the first half of the year is better than the same period last year, with a higher rate of profit growth and positive earnings forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - As of July 15, 2023, 1,529 listed companies have disclosed earnings forecasts, with 873 companies expecting profits and 847 companies anticipating year-on-year net profit growth, representing 57% and 55% respectively [1]. - The average expected net profit for the first half of the year is estimated to be between 1.34 billion and 1.79 billion yuan [1]. - The total expected net profit for all companies is projected to be between 2,048.71 million and 2,733.63 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth range of -65.76% to 32,122.68% [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The 中证A500 Index ETF (563880) has shown significantly better performance compared to the overall market, with 126 constituent stocks having disclosed earnings forecasts, of which 91 expect profits and 83 anticipate year-on-year net profit growth, accounting for 72% and 65% respectively [4][6]. - The average expected net profit for the constituent stocks of the 中证A500 Index ETF is estimated to be between 10.52 million and 12.27 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Market Trends - The market is expected to shift towards core assets as macroeconomic fundamentals improve and company earnings are disclosed, suggesting a focus on "new" assets as a strategic investment opportunity [8]. - The 中证A500 Index ETF is highlighted for its low management fees (0.15%) and custodian fees (0.05%), along with a monthly evaluation of dividend distribution, providing investors with predictable returns [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in profit forecasts for several companies ahead of the mid-year report season, indicating a potential shift in market focus towards performance metrics [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth is expected to see a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 19 to 20 times for the first half of the year [1]. - Huayin Power has experienced a stock price surge of 76.72% in July, with an anticipated net profit growth of 36 to 44 times year-on-year for the same period [1]. - Other companies with impressive profit forecasts include Xianda Co., Tianbao Infrastructure, Shen Shen Real Estate A, Hanyu Pharmaceutical, and Muyuan Foods, all projecting year-on-year increases exceeding 1000% [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - As of July 10, 181 companies have disclosed their mid-year profit forecasts, with a notable increase in market attention towards these earnings reports, particularly from late June to early July [1]. - According to a report by Industrial Securities, the correlation between market performance and earnings growth has strengthened during this period, suggesting that investment based on earnings forecasts may become more effective [1].

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market is shifting towards performance, with many listed companies announcing significant profit increases for the first half of 2024, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [1][2]. Performance Highlights - Chipong Micro (芯朋微) expects a net profit increase of approximately 104% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with projected revenue of around 630 million yuan, a 38% increase [4][5]. - Guohuo Airlines (国货航) anticipates a net profit of 1.18675 billion to 1.26675 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 78.13% to 90.14% [6]. - Daotong Technology (道通科技) projects a net profit of 460 million to 490 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% to 26.76% [6]. Market Reactions - Following the announcements of performance increases, many A-share companies experienced significant stock price surges, with some stocks hitting the daily limit up [8]. - A total of 53 A-share companies have released performance forecasts for the first half of 2024, with 17 companies expecting net profit increases exceeding 90% [2][8]. Sector Insights - The semiconductor and technology sectors are highlighted as key areas of focus, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI innovations and strong performance in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [10][11]. - The overall industrial output value in the TMT manufacturing sector is maintaining a growth rate of over 10%, indicating robust sector performance [10]. Strategic Focus - Companies are advised to concentrate on sectors with high earnings certainty, such as overseas computing, gaming, military, and exports, as these are expected to be major sources of excess returns in July [11][12].

Group 1 - The average return of 35 broker stock portfolios for the first half of 2025 was 7.92%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by nearly 5 percentage points, with 3 broker portfolios exceeding 20% returns [1][4] - The Hang Seng Index saw a significant 20% increase in the first half of 2025, outperforming major equity market indices such as NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225, leading to an increased recommendation of Hong Kong stocks by brokers [3][6] - In June 2025, several broker portfolios experienced a strong rebound, with notable returns of 19.6%, 10.6%, and 12.1% from Guoyuan Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Shenwan Hongyuan respectively, enhancing their overall performance for the first half of the year [4] Group 2 - As of the first quarter of 2025, public funds held 463.5 billion yuan in Hong Kong stocks, representing 16% of their stock holdings, which is 11.8% above the benchmark allocation level, indicating a significant overweight position [9] - The upcoming mid-year reporting season is expected to focus on performance disclosures, with companies needing to announce earnings forecasts by July 15 if they meet certain criteria, making July a critical month for market performance [8][10] - The latest strategy report from CITIC Securities highlights sectors with strong earnings certainty, including wind power, gaming, pets, and rare metals, while also suggesting that some segments of the new energy sector have reached reasonable valuation levels [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market is likely to continue a volatile trend due to cautious investor sentiment and the impact of overseas risks, with a focus on policy signals from the Lujiazui Forum and the Federal Reserve's meetings [3][5] - There are signs of capital returning to technology stocks, indicating a potential shift towards a technology growth style in the market [5] - The A-share market is entering a period of concentrated disclosure of mid-term performance forecasts, which may enhance the effectiveness of investment in sectors with strong performance [7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in the fourth quarter, with recent meetings showing a cautious stance on inflation and economic growth forecasts [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-shares are expected to continue showing a warming risk appetite and thematic rotation, focusing on low institutional holdings and thematic trading opportunities [1] - The economic landscape is anticipated to face new variables by the end of Q2, particularly in the context of Sino-US economic relations [1] - Three major trends are highlighted: the unwavering trend of enhancing China's independent technological capabilities, the reconstruction of European defense and energy infrastructure, and the necessity for China to accelerate domestic demand through the "dual circulation" strategy [1] Group 2 - Short-term factors affecting A-shares include the resolution of negative Q1 reports, the TMT sector reaching a lower response model, and ongoing advancements in AI applications by major domestic and international companies [2] - In the medium term, a focus on neutral dividend combinations is recommended until significant rebounds in real estate or technological applications occur [2] - The current market is likely to favor a rotation and thematic investment approach due to uncertainties in reported earnings across various listed companies [2] Group 3 - The end of the performance verification period is expected to enhance the outlook for technology stocks, with a high probability of a short-term rebound led by the tech sector [3] - Consumption and technology are both seen as areas where expectations for growth are strengthening, with a current high profitability effect in consumption and a relatively low position in technology [3] - The report indicates a preference for investment opportunities in AI computing and embodied intelligence in the medium term [3] Group 4 - Despite ongoing trade tensions, Chinese assets are viewed as having better value, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as tourism, food, and retail [4] - Recommendations include resource products and capital goods that will benefit from the restructuring of global economic order [4] - Low-valuation financial sectors are also suggested as a hedge against potential external shocks [4] Group 5 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to boost Chinese assets, with AI becoming a key focus for investment in May [5][6] - The report emphasizes the potential of the domestic AI industry and applications, supported by high capital expenditure from overseas firms [5][6] Group 6 - The A-share market is expected to experience increased volatility, with a shift from small-cap growth to large-cap value stocks [7] - Recommendations include reducing exposure to AI sectors with low penetration rates and increasing allocation to structural tech growth areas with performance contributions [7] - The report suggests focusing on sectors like infrastructure and consumption that are expected to benefit from growth dividends [7] Group 7 - The technology growth style is returning as the market begins to shift following the resolution of prior performance and tariff disruptions [8] - The technology sector is seen as having reached a favorable valuation range, making it an attractive area for investment [8] - The report indicates that as pessimism fades, the tech sector is regaining its position as a focal point for capital [8] Group 8 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are becoming more resilient to external shocks, with macro policies expected to support market stability [9] - Key areas of focus include high-margin assets, the tech sector as a long-term investment, and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support [9] - The report suggests that Hong Kong stocks are currently undervalued and may benefit from expanding domestic demand policies [9] Group 9 - The A-share market is expected to demonstrate independence and resilience, with opportunities in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors [10] - The report highlights the importance of performance improvement and policy alignment in the tech sector, particularly in TMT [10] - It also emphasizes the potential of sectors benefiting from rising domestic consumption expectations [10] Group 10 - The market may experience a controlled pullback due to tariff impacts, but the overall outlook remains positive with favorable domestic policies [11] - The report anticipates that the market will stabilize and potentially return to a bullish state by the latter half of the year [11] - A focus on value-oriented investments is recommended, particularly in themes related to growth and domestic substitution [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between interest rates and valuations, emphasizing that not all declining interest rate environments will lead to valuation increases. It outlines two primary methods for valuation enhancement: through accelerated growth or rising ROE, and through a low interest rate environment [3][23]. Group 1: Valuation Enhancement Methods - Valuation can be enhanced through two methods: one is during the accelerated growth or ROE upturn phase, and the other is in a low interest rate environment [3][23]. - In a low interest rate environment, the valuation is influenced by both the numerator (ROE) and the denominator (interest rates and risk premiums) [4][30]. - The relationship between valuation and ROE is positively correlated across countries, while the relationship between valuation and interest rates varies, showing positive, weak, or negative correlations depending on the country [4][31]. Group 2: Scenarios for Valuation Increase - Valuation increases during a declining interest rate phase are most evident in environments of extreme liquidity, where short-term real interest rates drop significantly [7][42]. - If economic recovery is strong, valuations will rise alongside interest rates due to inflation expectations, as seen in the post-pandemic U.S. [8][47]. - In cases of economic deflation, profit and inflation expectations may lead to further declines in valuations, as observed in Japan in the 1990s and Italy in the 2010s [8][47]. Group 3: Valuation and Interest Rate Dynamics - The average PB valuation low point for developed countries is 0.85 times, corresponding to an average interest rate of 2.46% [9][10]. - The low point of valuations is influenced by fundamentals, while the low point of interest rates is determined by monetary liquidity [9][10]. - Countries with strong fundamentals (e.g., U.S., Japan, Germany, France) tend to see valuation increases in sectors with comparative advantages, such as consumer discretionary, technology, and healthcare [12][47]. Group 4: A-share Market Valuation Potential - As interest rates decline, the extent of valuation increases diminishes, indicating a reduced sensitivity of valuations to interest rates [15][17]. - For example, when interest rates are at 4%, a 20% decline leads to a 16.9% increase in valuation; however, at 1.6%, the same decline results in only a 9.5% increase [15][16]. Group 5: Sector Performance During Interest Rate Changes - In the A-share market, sectors such as utilities and coal saw valuation increases when interest rates fell from 3.2% to 2.2%, while sectors driven by economic conditions, like TMT, performed better when rates fell from 2.2% to 1.6% [17][20]. - The performance of stable assets may not yield excess returns in the later stages of declining interest rates, as market dynamics shift towards growth-oriented assets [17][20].