Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is at a critical juncture, with the long-term debt cycle under pressure and a restructuring of global order and reserve assets expected to influence market trends in 2026 [1][2]. Macro Context - The current global economy is at the tail end of a long-term debt cycle, with government debt as a percentage of GDP at historically high levels and diminishing marginal effects of traditional monetary policy [2][3]. - The international monetary system dominated by the US dollar faces challenges, with international trade shifting from globalization to regionalization and increased protectionism of key technologies and resources [2]. Commodity Market Outlook - The downward pressure on the commodity market is expected to ease, with prices gradually rising, although sector differentiation will continue [2][4]. - Gold is anticipated to maintain a strong oscillating pattern due to ongoing diversified purchases by central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - Copper and aluminum are seen as leading indicators of structural market trends, driven by demand from infrastructure upgrades related to electric grids and new energy vehicles [4]. - The oversupply pressure in the oil market is gradually being digested, with OPEC's production increase slowing down, which may push oil prices higher [4]. Agricultural Products - Agricultural prices are likely to continue a pattern of oscillation, with current prices at low levels and cost support gradually emerging [5]. A-Share Market - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "low volatility, slow bull" characteristic in 2026, with opportunities arising from three main lines: upstream resource companies benefiting from fiscal expansion, companies achieving breakthroughs in key technologies, and undervalued defensive sectors [6][8]. Investment Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 should focus on flexibility and structure, moving from traditional balanced approaches to more aggressive strategies [10]. - Long-term opportunities in the commodity market, particularly in gold, copper, and aluminum, are highlighted as core investment options [10]. Differentiated Investment Strategies - Conservative investors should focus on high-grade bonds, deposits, and money market funds, with limited exposure to equities and commodities [12]. - Moderate investors are advised to balance their portfolios with a tilt towards equities, while aggressive investors should increase their allocations to stocks and commodities [12].

编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构研究大咖及相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投 资赛道。 2026年，全球金融市场站在新旧周期交替的关键路口——长期债务周期尾部承压，全球秩序与储备资产重构，政策转向发力。多重变量交织下，投资者该 如何布局？ 近日，期货日报记者就马年宏观格局、各类资产走势及差异化配置策略采访了平安期货研究所所长李晨阳，为投资者拆解周期密码、布局方向。 宏观底色：债务尾部与秩序重构 理解马年资产配置，必须先看清当下市场所处的周期位置。李晨阳表示，当前全球处于长期债务周期尾部，政府债务占GDP的比重普遍处于历史高位，传 统货币政策边际效应递减。与此同时，美元主导的国际货币体系正面临多元挑战，国际贸易从全球化走向区域化，关键技术和资源品保护加剧。 "全球秩序与储备资产的重构将是马年金融市场走势的关键背景。"他说。 李晨阳表示，2026年欧美央行仍处于降息周期，且通胀尚未形成明显的上行压力。经济有韧性，货币与财政政策相对友好，这种组合对权益市场和大宗商 品市场形成支撑。 大宗商品市场：下行压力缓解，价格重心或逐步上移 在李晨阳看来，马 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index is experiencing an upward trend, achieving a 14-day consecutive rise, with the A500 ETF (512050) showing a slight increase of 0.08% and a trading volume exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] - Several stocks, including Nanda Optoelectronics, Dongfang Risheng, and Dinglong Co., have seen significant price increases, with some reaching the daily limit of 20% and others rising over 10% [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery in its monetary policy, indicating a flexible approach to using various monetary tools to maintain ample liquidity and support balanced credit growth [1] Group 2 - Foreign investment institutions have expressed positive expectations for the Chinese market in 2026, highlighting factors such as abundant liquidity, stronger policy support, and attractive valuations as contributing to an "upward opportunity period" for Chinese assets [2] - CITIC Securities noted that structural opportunities may become the norm in the market, with a potential "low volatility, slow bull" market trend, where absolute return funds from insurance capital and private equity may be significant sources of incremental capital [2] - The A500 ETF (512050) is designed to help investors capture core A-share assets and market growth, tracking the CSI A500 Index with a dual strategy of "industry balanced allocation + leading selection," focusing on sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and new energy [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective rise on November 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4029.5 points, up 0.73%, and reaching a peak of 4030.4 points, marking a ten-year high [1][2]. Industry Performance - The lithium battery supply chain saw a significant surge, with the energy metals sector index rising by 7.89%. Key stocks in the upstream lithium sector, such as Tianhua New Energy, surged over 19%, while others like Rongjie Co., Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Shengtun Mining hit the daily limit [5][6]. - The midstream battery sector also performed well, with the leading company, CATL, increasing by over 8% and closing up 7.56%, with a trading volume exceeding 22.9 billion yuan [5]. Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reportedly doubled recently, with some market quotes reaching 150,000 yuan per ton. The mainstream transaction price has also significantly increased since mid-October [7]. - Prices for electrolyte solvents such as VC and FEC have risen sharply, with VC rebounding 77% from its low of 48,700 yuan per ton in June to 86,000 yuan per ton by November 12, and FEC increasing 64% from 33,000 yuan per ton to 54,000 yuan per ton in the same period [7]. Stock Contributions - Despite the lithium battery sector leading the market, the top contributors to the Shanghai Composite Index included stocks from various sectors, with Zijin Mining contributing the most at 1.78 points, followed by SMIC and others from sectors like semiconductor and insurance [8][9]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently characterized by a strong performance in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices have not seen similar gains, indicating a trend of strength in the Shanghai market compared to the others [9]. - The Shanghai Dividend Index has continued to rise, increasing nearly 4% in November and 8.92% since the beginning of the fourth quarter, suggesting a return of dividend-focused investment strategies [9].