研究报告 Research Report 25 Aug 2025 九毛九 Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK) 点评报告：短期业绩承压，门店调改推动经营边际向好 Review Report: Performance Under Pressure in the Short Term, Store Adjustments Drive Marginal Improvement in Operations (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：九毛九发布 2025 年半年报。1H25 公司收入合计 27.5 亿 元，同比下降 10.1%；店铺层面经营利润 3.1 亿元，同比下降 21.0%；归母净利润 0.6 亿元，同比下降 16.0%；核心经营利润 1 亿元，同比下降 37.0%。摊薄每股盈利为 0.04 元，同比下降 20.0%。 点评：主品牌利润率下滑，新品牌带来增量。（1）收入结构： 1H25 ， 太 二 、 怂 火 锅 、 九 毛 九 、 其 他 品 牌 营 业 收 入 各 19.5/4.2/2.3/ 1 ...

前两天的一篇关于欧洲咖啡馆的文章，有位读者朋友留言说：碰巧与昨天的一个消息巧合了：星巴克开 始出售中国业务。我在一个股票投资社交平台上写了一个评论帖评述星巴克事件，文中特别推荐了你这 篇文章，给了链接。 非常感谢这位读者朋友的留言，您的想法为我的写作打开了一个新的视角。 多年前，我自己也曾接触过金融投资领域，因此也曾认真研究过不少行业，比如机器人、新能源汽车、 食品饮料等，咖啡行业自然也在关注之列。 中国连锁咖啡市场呈现出鲜明的双轨并行特征：国际连锁品牌深耕高端市场，本土势力则以差异化策略 实现快速突围。 根据最新市场数据，2025年上半年，27家主要连锁咖啡品牌门店存量达66，568家，净增门店11，841 家，较2024年底增长21.64%，行业正式迈入新一轮扩张周期。 国际品牌仍保持重要市场地位。 所有国际品牌中，星巴克以超过7，750家门店领跑，通过"第三空间"理念强化社交属性，其2025年第三 财季(4-6月)中国营业收入同比增长8%至7.9亿美元(约56.7亿人民币)。 然而最近几年，虽然我不再持续跟踪这些行业，但它们在国内的发展可谓日新月异，发生了翻天覆地的 变化——这些变革的深度和速度，放在当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China has shown stable growth in the first half of the year, with a total social logistics volume exceeding 171.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate [3][5]. Logistics Performance - The total social logistics volume reached 171.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, indicating strong support for economic development [3][5]. - The logistics demand continues to play a significant role in supporting the stable growth of the national economy [3]. Sector Analysis - Industrial product logistics saw a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, contributing 85% to the total social logistics volume growth, with emerging industries driving strong demand [5]. - The logistics volume for consumer goods increased by 6.1%, driven by active consumer markets and specific sectors such as electronics and tourism [5]. Revenue and Cost Efficiency - The total revenue of the logistics industry was 6.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, indicating a generally favorable economic climate in the logistics sector [7]. - The total logistics cost was 9.2 trillion yuan, with a ratio to GDP of 14.0%, showing a steady decline in logistics costs relative to GDP [7]. Technological Advancements - The logistics sector is leveraging digital technologies to enhance supply chain efficiency, with a 26.0% year-on-year increase in supply chain contract orders for large-scale logistics enterprises [8]. - Integrated logistics business revenue grew by 16.0%, supported by advancements in automation and smart technologies [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the advancements in supply chain efficiency and technology, particularly in the context of the fresh durian market from Thailand to China [1][2][3] - Charoen Pokphand Group (CP Group) showcases its innovative supply chain solutions at the China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo, emphasizing the importance of technology in monitoring durian ripeness and ensuring optimal transport conditions [1] - The collaboration between CP Group and various retail networks, including Hema and Lianhua, enables Thai durians to reach Chinese consumers quickly, reducing transportation time from 5-6 days to 3 days [2] Group 2 - The rapid response capability of the supply chain allows companies like Tsingtao Group to launch new products effectively, such as the upgraded bottled Red Bull energy drink in China [2][3] - Tsingtao Group's Chief Supply Chain Officer emphasizes the competitiveness of China's supply chain, which facilitates quick adjustments to production plans and strategies to meet diverse market demands [3] - Tsingtao Group has invested over 4.3 billion RMB in China over the past five years, establishing production bases in Hainan, Sichuan, and Guangxi to deepen its business presence [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of once-popular brands in the fashion industry, highlighting their strategies for adaptation and transformation in response to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Brand Resurgence - Many once-familiar brands have shown remarkable performance in recent years, with Daphne leading the women's shoe sales on Douyin, and brands like Meisibangwei and True Vivus experiencing significant online sales growth [5][6]. - Brands such as Camel and others are beginning to show signs of recovery despite undergoing painful transformations [6]. Group 2: Transformation Strategies - The article categorizes the transformation strategies of these brands into four types: Dolphin, Belt Fish, Octopus, and Flounder, each representing different approaches to adaptation [8]. - Dolphin-type brands actively explore new fields and shed their old images, exemplified by Camel's shift to outdoor apparel and collaborations with young influencers [8][9]. - Belt Fish-type brands focus on downsizing and outsourcing production, as seen with Daphne and Huili, which have reduced their physical stores significantly while enhancing brand management [9][11]. - Octopus-type brands, like Meisibangwei, aim to expand their reach by reopening stores in lower-tier markets while leveraging online promotions to drive foot traffic [11][12]. - Flounder-type brands, such as Bannilu and True Vivus, maintain a low profile, focusing on existing operations without aggressive expansion or contraction [12]. Group 3: Embracing E-commerce - The brands have recognized the necessity of embracing e-commerce to compete effectively, leveraging their established brand recognition to drive online sales [15]. - True Vivus has amassed 5 million followers on Taobao, with e-commerce sales accounting for over 80% of its revenue, while Daphne has developed a robust live-streaming strategy [16][18]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Product Innovation - Brands are investing in digital technologies and AI tools to enhance their supply chain efficiency, reducing design cycles and improving inventory turnover [18][21]. - Belle has successfully shortened its design cycle from 45 days to 15 days and has implemented a custom shoe service based on user data, increasing the price point of its products [18][20]. Group 5: Market Positioning and Consumer Engagement - The brands are focusing on creating premium experiences in flagship stores, which can generate significantly higher average transaction values compared to regular stores [21][22]. - In lower-tier markets, the strategies differ, with Belt Fish brands outsourcing production, which may dilute brand identity, while Octopus brands face challenges in maintaining consumer engagement [24][25]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the next phase of industry evolution is approaching, driven by improved logistics and changing consumer behaviors, particularly with the rise of instant retail [26][35]. - Brands must address supply chain weaknesses and re-establish connections with consumers to avoid fading into obscurity, emphasizing the importance of adapting to new market realities [37].

Core Insights - Cainiao Global Supply Chain announced a comprehensive upgrade of its overseas warehouses in the Asia-Pacific region, covering over 20 locations across countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, achieving an outbound order fulfillment rate of 99.9% on the same day [1] Group 1 - The company has cumulatively served hundreds of leading Chinese brands in the潮玩, beauty, and 3C digital sectors, supporting both B2C e-commerce drop shipping and B2B store replenishment models [1] - Cainiao provides a "one inventory, multiple channels" supply chain solution to address merchants' issues with dispersed inventory allocation across multiple platforms, enhancing inventory health through a smart warehouse system that dynamically adjusts stock levels based on historical sales data [1] - The self-operated warehouses of Cainiao possess extensive peak handling experience and strong elasticity to respond to significant fluctuations in order volume during e-commerce promotional periods [1] Group 2 - The Asia-Pacific market presents diverse consumer scenarios and complex supply chain demands, which the company addresses by integrating dispersed logistics nodes into an agile collaborative network through digital technology [1] - Cainiao Global Supply Chain operates over 40 overseas warehouses in 18 countries and regions across Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific, providing end-to-end supply chain management solutions and warehousing services to assist brands in various industries, including automotive parts, home goods, appliances, and furniture, in accelerating their international expansion [1]

Group 1 - JD Logistics currently has a team of over a thousand people in Saudi Arabia, indicating significant operational presence in the region [2] - In June 2024, JD Group established a strategic partnership with Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) to automate and upgrade dozens of its warehouses, enhancing logistics efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa [3] - JD Logistics has built one of the largest automotive parts centers in Saudi Arabia, storing tens of thousands of auto parts, which supports its collaboration with major automotive brands [3] Group 2 - JD Logistics aims to seize opportunities from Saudi Arabia's economic transformation, accelerating the implementation of logistics supply chains and expanding its global integrated supply chain network [4] - For the full year of 2024, JD Group reported total revenue of 1,158.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.84%, with Q4 revenue reaching 347 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, JD Logistics achieved total revenue of 46.967 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.46% [4]

Core Insights - The prices of high-end fruits like durian and blueberries have become more affordable due to advancements in agricultural technology and supply chain upgrades [1][2][3] - Domestic cultivation of previously imported fruits has increased, with China now leading in blueberry production, surpassing the United States in 2020 [1][2] - The logistics and cold chain improvements have significantly reduced transportation and storage costs, contributing to the price decline of high-end fruits [1][3] Agricultural Technology Empowerment - The successful domestic cultivation of durian in Hainan has begun, with the first batch of "tree-ripened" durians expected to be available in June 2023 [1] - The blueberry industry in China has rapidly developed, with domestic blueberries gaining popularity and becoming sought after in international markets [1][2] Supply Chain Optimization - The rapid development of the supply chain has controlled the costs of imported fruits, contributing to the price drop of high-end fruits [2][3] - Companies like Honghui Fruits and Vegetables have established strong supply chains, including Malaysian durian bases and sales channels through platforms like JD.com [2] Cross-Border Direct Sourcing - Retail companies are increasingly adopting cross-border direct sourcing models, with Hefei Department Store Group importing over 2,300 tons of various fruits by the end of 2024 [3] - The combination of efficient transportation channels and high-quality domestic fruit supply is driving the price reduction of high-end fruits [3]

Group 1 - The new tariff policy has led to an upgrade in supply chains, with emerging markets like Russia and Europe becoming growth engines for companies [1][4][6] - Following the tariff adjustments on May 12, companies have reported a surge in orders from the U.S., indicating a recovery in demand despite initial uncertainties [4][6][10] - Companies are increasingly focusing on brand development and global procurement strategies to adapt to the changing foreign trade environment [3][6] Group 2 - Many companies have established stable relationships with U.S. clients, which are not significantly affected by tariff changes, allowing for collaborative solutions to share cost burdens [5][6] - The overall impact of the tariff changes on business operations has been manageable, with some companies reporting increased orders post-May 12 compared to the previous months [4][6] - Companies are exploring diversified market layouts and enhancing their product offerings to maintain competitiveness in the international market [6][7] Group 3 - The shift towards domestic sales is being considered by some companies, although challenges such as intense competition and lack of operational experience in the domestic market exist [8][10] - E-commerce platforms like 1688 are adapting to the changing competitive landscape by launching initiatives to support companies transitioning from foreign trade to domestic sales [9] - Companies are focusing on integrating domestic and foreign trade strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating overseas markets [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's revenue is increasing, but profits are declining, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability despite growth in store openings [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Miniso reported revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9% [2]. - Operating profit for the same period was 710 million yuan, down 4.51% year-on-year [2]. - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 417 million yuan, a decline of 28.92% compared to the previous year [2]. - Adjusted net profit was 587 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.81% year-on-year [2]. Store Expansion and Performance - Miniso opened a total of 978 new stores in the past year, bringing the total to 7,768 stores as of March 31, 2025 [3]. - The average sales performance of new stores opened in Q1 2025 improved by 27% compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - The company is focusing on the MINISO LAND store format, with 8 locations opened and 15 more in preparation [3]. International Growth - Revenue from overseas markets grew by 30.3%, contributing an additional 3 percentage points to total revenue [4]. - Miniso aims to enhance collaboration with international partners to improve operational efficiency and store models [4]. Collaboration with Yonghui Supermarket - Miniso's CFO reported that Yonghui Supermarket has already closed 78 stores and plans to close between 250 to 350 stores in 2025 [5][6]. - The restructuring of Yonghui Supermarket is expected to improve profitability through enhanced cost and management efficiency [6]. Yonghui Supermarket's Financial Situation - Yonghui Supermarket reported a revenue of 17.479 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decline of 19.32% year-on-year [7]. - The company has faced significant losses over the past four years, totaling over 9.5 billion yuan [7].