欧洲放缓调门： 稀土博弈主导权仍在中国 2.中国的出口许可制度仍是关键环节，保有全面审核最终用户、审批申请及基于安全理由暂停出货的最终权力。 3.此番外交姿态转变凸显了欧洲的脆弱性：若无本土精炼产能，欧盟只能通过协商获取资源，远未实现真正的供应链"去风险化"。 据《南华早报》报道，欧盟已进入"缓和模式"，降低公开言论的对抗性，以争取更稳定的稀土出口渠道。但在外交辞令之下，是二十年来未曾改变的结构 性现实：中国掌控着供给主导权。 最新谈判的焦点在于，稀土氧化物及材料的出口许可期限有望从现行的三个月延长至一年。欧盟视此举为稳定稀土供应的信号；而对中国而言，这更是一 项审慎的决策。即便实施年度许可，中国仍完全保留批准最终用户、审核各项申请，以及基于安全理由，尤其是在"军事最终用途"这一具有灵活解释空间 的定义上，暂停出口的绝对权力。 对于投资者而言，此事的重点不是欧洲获得了多少利益，而是中国基本没有损失。 饮鸩止渴 布鲁塞尔语调放缓的背后是旷日持久的压力：自中国于2025年4月实施出口管制措施限制稀土出口以来，欧洲制造商一直处境艰难。九月荷兰政府切断安 世半导体(Nexperia)欧洲部门与其中国母公司的联系，北京 ...

Core Points - The U.S. and Australia signed an $8.5 billion rare earth minerals agreement, which is expected to significantly increase U.S. rare earth supplies and reduce reliance on China [1] - The EU was excluded from this agreement, highlighting its vulnerability and dependence on Chinese rare earths for key industries [2] - The EU's previous criticisms of China regarding trade imbalances and subsidies have backfired, leaving it in a precarious position as it seeks to negotiate with China for rare earth supplies [4][9] Group 1 - The U.S. and Australia are collaborating to break China's dominance in the rare earth market, with the U.S. claiming that it will have an abundance of rare earths within a year [1] - The EU's exclusion from the agreement has caused embarrassment and concern, especially as China has tightened its rare earth export restrictions [2] - The EU's reliance on Chinese rare earths for critical industries such as automotive, chips, and wind power poses a significant risk of supply shortages [2] Group 2 - The EU's trade commissioner has reached out to China to negotiate a new mutually beneficial agreement regarding rare earth exports, indicating a shift in tone [4] - China's rare earth production capabilities and complete supply chain control make it difficult for the U.S. and Australia to compete in the short term [6] - The energy supply challenges in the U.S. and Australia further complicate their ability to develop a robust rare earth processing industry [7] Group 3 - The EU's previous alignment with the U.S. against China has led to a passive stance, which is now causing it to seek urgent assistance from China [9] - The EU must address its own issues, such as the electric vehicle anti-subsidy case and semiconductor concerns, to improve relations with China [9] - A pragmatic approach and respect for rules are essential for the EU to secure its industrial supply chains in the context of deep global interdependencies [9]

Economic Impact of Geopolitical Fragmentation - The 2007-2008 financial crisis marked a significant turning point in globalization, leading to increased geopolitical fragmentation since 1975[2] - Geopolitical fragmentation index shows that a one standard deviation negative shock can reduce global GDP by approximately -0.4%, peaking within one to two years[5] - Emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are more severely impacted by external shocks compared to developed regions[5] Sectoral and Regional Variations - Industries closely tied to global markets, such as manufacturing and finance, face the most significant disruptions due to geopolitical risks[5] - The spillover effects of geopolitical factors are most pronounced in the US-EU region, affecting global economic dynamics[5] - In contrast, sectors like agriculture and real estate, which are more localized, experience relatively minor impacts[5] Innovation as a Response to Geopolitical Risks - Higher exposure to external political risks correlates with increased innovation activities, such as patent filings and R&D spending[8] - Private sector initiatives drive innovation in response to geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the importance of market incentives[8] - Medium-innovation firms, which are sensitive to external risks, tend to increase R&D efforts more than both high-tech giants and low-innovation firms[8] Long-term Implications for Economic Growth - Strengthening domestic innovation capabilities can help mitigate risks associated with global supply chains and enhance resilience[8] - Countries that can achieve technological advancements and industry upgrades within a regional framework are likely to excel in future global competition[8]

Core Viewpoint - The agreement with Japan is part of the U.S. strategy to mitigate risks in supply chains [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the importance of the Japan agreement in the context of supply chain risk reduction [1]