双焦月报： 关注供给侧扰动，双焦偏强震荡 2025年10月 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点策略 02 热点事件 03 钢材终端需求分析 04 焦炭基本面分析 05 焦煤基本面分析 01 观点策略 观点策略 焦炭主要观点 | | 核心 | 焦炭第二轮提涨落地，但焦企大部分亏损；铁水产量持续下调，焦炭产量下降，库存压力有限。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 逻辑 | 年底需求端政策或有限，煤炭供给端主导盘面。双焦易涨难跌，但是成材弱需求限制上方空间。预计双焦偏强震荡。 | | 核 | 期现 | 现货：焦煤成本压力，10月份焦炭历经两轮提涨。期货：主力合约涨幅9.49%。焦炭期限结构呈现Contango结构， 曲线重心上移。 | | 心 基 | 价差 | 焦炭期货月差基本持平。 | | 本 面 | 供应 | 中性 独立焦企由于成本压力，产量持续下调。钢厂焦炭产量小幅上调。10月份焦炭产量小幅走弱。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 直接需求：钢厂环保限产和利润亏损，铁水持续小幅下调，对焦炭需求走弱，钢厂和焦企就焦炭价格博弈中。 | | | | 钢材终端需求：建材端，房地产和基建需求较弱；卷材端，制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year-on-year decline in September PPI continues to narrow, driven by price increases in anti-involution policy benefiting industries and non-ferrous metal sectors [1] Group 1: Anti-involution Policy Benefiting Industries - Industries benefiting from anti-involution policies include coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, battery manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products, all showing a continued narrowing in year-on-year PPI decline [1] - The improvement in industrial product prices is primarily concentrated in upstream industries, with only localized price transmission observed in mid and downstream sectors, such as the photovoltaic equipment and components industry [1] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metal Sector - The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly copper prices, has seen significant increases driven by supply-side disruptions and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] - Despite the improvements in industrial prices, a widespread price increase has not yet materialized across the board [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The current cycle for the non-ferrous metals industry is at the brink of a new upward trend, positioned at the tail end of an economic downturn. Global economic data suggests a potential bottoming out and stabilization in major economies next year, which could lead to a new liquidity easing cycle, typically resulting in commodity prices entering a trend upward within two months [2][5]. Key Insights on Cobalt and Silver - Cobalt and silver are prioritized as investment choices due to their potential for significant price increases. Cobalt, primarily sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), accounts for approximately 76% of global supply. Export restrictions since February 2023 are expected to tighten supply, with historical price surges exceeding 200% during similar conditions. Current cobalt prices are around 270,000 CNY, with projections to rise to 350,000 CNY or even above 400,000 CNY [6][7]. - Silver is viewed as a precious metal with considerable upside potential. The current market for silver is relatively restrained, but as the economy stabilizes and demand increases, silver is expected to show greater elasticity. The gold-silver ratio is currently around 85, with expectations to correct to below 60, indicating a potential price increase of over 50% for silver [6][8]. Supply-Side Disturbances - Supply-side disturbances have significantly impacted the non-ferrous metals market, with various restrictions leading to price increases for metals like copper, aluminum, tungsten, and rare earths. Factors include policy export controls, smelting area restrictions, and decreased logistics efficiency due to global fragmentation [3][5]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - The cobalt market is entering a phase of sustained supply-demand tension, with expectations of a continuous shortfall starting in 2025. The strategic nature of cobalt, along with its current market conditions, positions it similarly to rare earths and tungsten as a critical investment [7][10]. Silver Market Characteristics - The silver market exhibits distinct phase characteristics. During periods of economic weakness, the gold-silver ratio tends to hover around 90. However, with economic recovery, industrial demand is expected to significantly improve the ratio, leading to substantial price increases for silver [8][11]. Investment Strategies - For cobalt, focus on companies involved in copper-cobalt or nickel-copper mining, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, which has a production estimate of 110,000 to 120,000 tons for 2024. Despite potential production cuts due to quota systems, price increases will likely enhance overall performance [10]. - In the silver sector, it is recommended to target lead-zinc mining companies that report high silver yields in their annual reports, as well as lead-zinc smelting enterprises that possess significant silver refining capacity [9]. Copper Market Insights - The copper market is currently influenced by a safety incident at the Grasberg mine, which may lead to a temporary production halt. Demand remains robust, but purchasing enthusiasm declines when prices exceed 9,700 USD. The supply-demand balance is still relatively stable, making a trend upward unlikely until global economic stabilization occurs [4][12]. Aluminum Sector Highlights - The electrolytic aluminum sector is experiencing a favorable trading environment, with no new production expected from domestic power companies. This situation is likely to enhance dividend payouts from leading companies such as Zhonglv, Hongqiao, and Shenhuo Tianshan [14]. Gold Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts, with potential price increases contingent on economic data and the extent of rate reductions. A favorable combination of rate cuts and economic performance could significantly benefit gold prices [15].