Economic Overview - Shandong Province has effectively responded to internal and external uncertainties, focusing on releasing domestic demand potential, strengthening industrial support, promoting service industry development, and stabilizing foreign trade, leading to a steady economic recovery [1] Industrial Performance - From January to August, the industrial added value of above-scale industries grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with 36 out of 41 industries experiencing growth, resulting in a growth rate of 87.8% [1] - Key industries such as railway, shipbuilding, electronics, and automotive saw significant increases in added value, with growth rates of 18.0%, 17.6%, and 16.2% respectively [1] Service Sector Growth - The revenue of above-scale service industries increased by 5.1% year-on-year from January to July, with 9 out of 10 major industry categories achieving growth [1] - Notably, the leasing and business services sector and the resident services and repair sector experienced double-digit growth rates of 15.9% and 10.1% respectively [1] Consumer Market Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.7% year-on-year from January to August, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [2] - Fixed asset investment faced pressure, declining by 2.0% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 5.1% [2] - The province's total import and export volume reached 23,222.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with exports growing by 5.4% and imports by 6.4% [2] Industrial Upgrading - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 12.2% and 10.0% respectively, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate [3] - Production of high-end equipment such as lithium-ion batteries, industrial robots, and train sets saw substantial increases, with growth rates of 48.4%, 41.0%, and 38.3% respectively [3] Financial and Fiscal Health - The province's general public budget revenue reached 5,579.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while expenditures grew by 2.9% [4] - The balance of deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies increased by 9.1%, and the loan balance grew by 8.6% [4] Private Sector Dynamics - The added value of private industrial enterprises increased by 9.8% year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 2.0 percentage points [4] - Retail sales of private commercial units grew by 8.4%, exceeding the overall retail sales growth rate by 1.6 percentage points [4] Employment and Price Stability - The province added 912,000 urban jobs from January to August, while the consumer price index saw a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2% [4] - Investment in the service and entertainment sectors increased significantly, with growth rates of 18.6% and 12.6% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson, Fu Linghui, announced that recent efforts to promote industry self-discipline and resist disorderly competition have shown gradual effects, particularly in key industries [1] Group 1: Industry Price Changes - In August, the ex-factory prices in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling industries, and coal mining and washing industries narrowed by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [1] - The price decline in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, as well as new energy vehicle manufacturing, saw year-on-year reductions narrow by 2.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The downward impact of these five industries on the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that recent industry self-regulation measures have shown positive effects, leading to a reduction in price declines in certain sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In August, the ex-factory prices in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, and coal mining and washing industries narrowed their decline by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [1] - The price decline in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, as well as in new energy vehicle manufacturing, decreased year-on-year by 2.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The impact of these five industries on the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) has reduced by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Group 1 - In August, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, the first such narrowing since March of this year [1][2] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to the implementation of more proactive macro policies and improvements in certain industry prices, as well as the ongoing construction of a unified national market [1] - Key industries such as coal processing, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing saw their year-on-year price declines narrow significantly, contributing to a reduction in the overall PPI decline by approximately 0.50 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Month-on-month, the PPI in August ended a consecutive eight-month decline, remaining flat after a 0.2% decrease in the previous month, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in some energy and raw material sectors [2] - Specific price changes in August included a 9.7% increase in coal processing prices, a 2.8% increase in coal mining and washing prices, and a 1.9% increase in black metal smelting and rolling prices, reversing previous declines [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face was affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut information, and market sentiment was volatile. The short - term market was mainly priced by the industry. With the approaching of the September 3 parade, funds were cautious, and the alloy trended weaker under the weakening of the sector. Silicon manganese was expected to move in a volatile manner [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In China, the single - month electricity consumption in August exceeded 1 trillion kWh, and power supply was stable after the peak summer. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in Jiangsu and Nanjing lowered deposit interest rates. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell was open to interest - rate cuts, and some Fed officials supported interest - rate cuts in September [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon manganese has been on the rise since mid - May. After the recent price increase, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 20,000 tons, and the downstream hot metal production was at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 80 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement and tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon manganese main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market was mainly priced by the industry in the short term, and silicon manganese should be treated as moving in a volatile manner [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of August 29, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 546,000 lots, a decrease of 43,198 lots compared with the previous period. The 1 - 9 contract month spread was 116, an increase of 26 points. As of August 28, the silicon manganese warehouse receipt quantity was 66,783, a decrease of 5,037. The price difference between the silicon manganese and silicon - iron contracts increased by 10 points [13][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was - 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 47%, an increase of 0.63%. The daily average production was 30,485 tons, an increase of 315 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon manganese was 126,656 tons, an increase of 1.09%, and the weekly supply of national silicon manganese was 213,395 tons, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory has decreased for 8 consecutive weeks to a neutral level [27][32]. - **Upstream**: As of August 28, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 34.2 yuan/ton degree, a decrease of 0.6. The electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was flat. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 20,000 tons. The spot production cost in the northern region was 5,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20, and the profit was - 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 10. In the southern region, the cost was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20, and the profit was - 525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [36][42][46]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 240,130 tons, a decrease of 620 tons compared with the previous week but an increase of 19,240 tons compared with the same period last year. The silicon manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared with July [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment has declined, leading to a correction in the silicon ferroalloy sector, with prices showing a weak trend. The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand situation has its own characteristics. The short - term market is mainly priced by the industry, and considering the approaching military parade on September 3rd, funds are cautious. The silicon ferroalloy main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In August, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time. After the peak summer period, power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in China have cut deposit rates by 10 - 20 basis points. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: On August 22, Fed Chairman Powell indicated an open attitude towards interest rate cuts, causing a sharp rebound in the night - session of the black futures market. Trump announced the dismissal of a Fed governor, and Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the September meeting, expecting further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks. Most manufacturers have hedged in the early stage, and inventory is at a neutral level. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has increased, and the overall demand for steel is still weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 185 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 40 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The short - term market is mainly priced by the industry. With the approaching military parade on September 3rd, funds are cautious. The alloy is expected to weaken with the sector. The silicon ferroalloy main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 29, the position volume of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts was 412,000 lots, a decrease of 30,686 lots compared to the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts was 164, a decrease of 6 points compared to the previous period. As of August 28, the number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 19,201, a decrease of 1,001 compared to the previous period. As of August 29, the spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was 5,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [12][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, the basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 points compared to the previous period [21]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: As of August 28, the national average capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 36.54%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. The daily average output was 16,155 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31% (50 tons). The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products was 20,573.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The national weekly supply of silicon ferroalloy was 113,100 tons [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 62,910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34% (830 tons). The inventory in Inner Mongolia increased by 1,400 tons, while that in Ningxia decreased by 200 tons [30]. - **Upstream**: As of August 25, the electricity price for silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged compared to the previous period. As of August 28, the average price of semi - coke in Ningxia remained unchanged compared to the previous period. As of August 29, the spot production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The spot production profit in Ningxia was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and that in Inner Mongolia was - 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [35][41]. - **Downstream**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.924 million tons. From January to July 2025, the total export volume of silicon ferroalloy was 236,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91%. The silicon ferroalloy tender price in August was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to July [43][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, in July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in China have cut deposit rates. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, which boosted the night - session of black commodities. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July increased significantly. The iron water output is at a high level, and the coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategically, affected by the Fed's potential rate cuts, the market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering the undecided eighth - round price increase, potential price cuts, and the approaching military parade on September 3rd, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In July, China's monthly electricity consumption hit a record high, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. From January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, and some Fed officials support rate cuts in September [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron water output is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons. The coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 55 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering various factors, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend, and the main contract of coke should be treated as a volatile operation [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 29th, the coke futures contract position was 48,700 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1011 lots. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of coke was 162.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 110.5 points. The warehouse receipt volume increased by 90 lots week - on - week, and the ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.02 points week - on - week [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 28th, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. As of August 29th, the coke basis was - 142.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41.5 points. In July, the output of raw coal by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [25][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Coking Enterprises**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.70%, a decrease of 1.47%. The daily coke output was 51,280 tons, a decrease of 1030 tons. The coke inventory was 398,100 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.1987 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.0 days, an increase of 0.18 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron water output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.1924 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of August 22nd, the total coke inventory was 8.5546 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.58% [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The coke inventory in 18 ports was 2.6866 million tons, an increase of 400 tons. The inventory in 247 steel mills was 6.1007 million tons, an increase of 4800 tons [40]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Chart - **Export**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 158,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - **Real Estate**: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 24th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.6125 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 26.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.17%. The transaction area in first - tier cities was 402,800 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.97%. The transaction area in second - tier cities was 903,700 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 65.43% and a year - on - year increase of 3.61% [47][52].

Economic Overview - From January to July, Nanjing's economy maintained overall stability with a focus on steady progress, supported by effective macro policies and the cultivation of new productive forces [1] - The industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.0% year-on-year during the same period, with a 3.2% increase in July alone [1] Industrial Performance - Key industries such as automobile manufacturing, black metal smelting, and electrical machinery manufacturing saw cumulative added value growth of 13.1%, 10.8%, and 9.4% respectively [1] - Production of integrated circuits, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 26.6%, 38.4%, and 48.8% respectively [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Nanjing decreased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to July [1] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.5%, while manufacturing investment rose by 8.5%, and real estate development investment fell by 14.1% [1] - High-tech industry investment increased by 4.8%, with electronics and communication equipment manufacturing growing by 4.7% and information chemical manufacturing rising by 50.2% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 496.022 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [2] - The "trade-in" policy showed significant effects, with retail sales of home appliances, cultural office supplies, and communication equipment increasing by 22.9%, 22.3%, and 23.4% respectively [2] - Retail sales of energy-efficient and smart home appliances surged by 98.1% and 190.4%, while wearable smart devices and new energy vehicles saw growth of 424.6% and 45.8% respectively [2] Price Trends - In July, the consumer price index decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with food and tobacco prices down by 1.1% and clothing prices up by 2.1% [2] - The industrial producer prices saw a decline, with factory and purchase prices dropping by 3.3% and 3.6% respectively in July [2] - From January to July, industrial producer prices fell by 2.5% for factory prices and 3.1% for purchase prices [2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In July, Sichuan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing from a previous month of stability [1] - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.4%, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The rise in CPI was driven by increased prices in tourism, transportation, accommodation, and refined oil [1] - Specific price changes included a 3.9% decrease in fresh vegetable prices, a 1.7% decrease in fresh fruit prices, and a 0.5% increase in pork prices [1] - The slight increase in pork prices is attributed to industry measures aimed at reducing production capacity and improving supply-demand balance [1] - During the peak travel season, air ticket prices rose by 20.1%, travel agency fees increased by 13.9%, hotel accommodation prices went up by 5.0%, and transportation rental fees rose by 4.8% [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued its downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, and the decline rate expanded by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Month-on-month, the PPI fell by 1.2%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - Contributing factors to the PPI decline included seasonal decreases in water and electricity prices, as well as an increase in the scale of market-oriented electricity transactions [2] - The prices in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry continued to decline, along with ongoing decreases in the non-metallic mineral products industry [2]

Group 1 - Baosteel Co., Ltd. experienced a significant stock decline of 2.14% on August 11, 2023 [1] - The company, established in 2000 and located in Shanghai, primarily engages in the smelting and rolling of ferrous metals, with a registered capital of approximately 22.26 billion RMB [1] - Huatai-PineBridge Fund's Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is among Baosteel's top ten shareholders and reduced its holdings in the second quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - The year-to-date return for the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is 6.83%, ranking 2194 out of 3294 in its category [2] - The fund's performance over various periods shows a weekly increase of 1.31%, a monthly increase of 3.15%, and a quarterly increase of 8.94% [2] - Comparatively, the average return for similar funds this year is 11.73%, indicating that Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is underperforming relative to its peers [2] Group 3 - Liu Jun is the fund manager of the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, with a career spanning over 16 years in the fund management industry [3][4] - Liu has held various positions within Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management Co., Ltd., including roles as a director and manager for multiple ETFs [3][4] - The total assets under management for Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management Co., Ltd. amount to approximately 466.98 billion RMB, with a cumulative return of 147.41% [4]