Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and geopolitical risk concerns on gold prices, questioning whether bullish sentiment can reverse the current market situation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is adopting a more dovish tone, which may influence market dynamics and investor sentiment towards gold [1] - Geopolitical risks are rising, contributing to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - An invitation is extended for a free training session focused on trading opportunities in the gold market, highlighting the urgency and limited availability of spots [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged to a maximum of $3440 per ounce, marking a 1.83% increase and reaching a nearly one-month high; Brent crude oil rose to $89.65 per barrel, with a 6.2% increase, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - Israel launched a military operation named "Operation Lion's Strength," deploying 24 F-35I fighter jets and submarines to strike six locations in Iran, claiming to have destroyed 90% of centrifuge equipment and resulting in the deaths of key Iranian nuclear scientists [3] - Iran responded by activating its border air defense systems and suspending all flights at Tehran Imam Khomeini Airport, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil transport routes [4] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices was driven by a combination of geopolitical risk and expectations of interest rate cuts, with gold jumping $30 due to these factors [5] - Data from the World Gold Council indicated that Middle Eastern central banks purchased 28 tons of gold in June, while SPDR Gold ETF saw a net inflow of 5.2 tons, reflecting increased demand amid rising market volatility [6] - The U.S. economic indicators, including a 2.6% year-on-year increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims reaching a near eight-month high, have led to an 82% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary policy easing, leading to a breakthrough of key resistance levels in the gold market [1][3][4]. Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has worsened due to Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting Iran to threaten retaliation [3]. - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including drone attacks and military deployments in Eastern Europe, has increased geopolitical uncertainty, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. Monetary Policy Expectations - Weak economic data from the U.S. has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a projected cumulative cut of 50 basis points this year [4][5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a cooling inflationary pressure, contributing to the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Technical Analysis - Gold has established a support level above $3,380, with a bullish "engulfing" pattern observed in recent trading sessions [6]. - The price has successfully broken through the $3,400 mark, indicating strong upward momentum, supported by technical indicators such as the RSI [8]. Trading Strategy - The combination of geopolitical tensions and monetary easing expectations is expected to drive gold prices higher, with a focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting for further policy guidance [11]. - A pullback to around $3,390 is seen as an ideal entry point for investors, with long-term structural support for gold prices anticipated from central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent upward trend in gold prices and the potential for a technical adjustment in the near future [1] - It raises questions about whether geopolitical risks will contribute to further increases in gold prices [1] - The analysis is provided by the TTPS team, specifically by Coach Lu, indicating a focus on market trends and investor sentiment [1]

Market Overview - COMEX gold reached $3064.7 per ounce, up 0.25% from the previous trading day, hitting a historical high [1] - London gold spot price also set a record at $3061.9 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook reported gold jewelry prices at 921 RMB per gram, with a daily increase of 3 RMB per gram [1] Institutional Predictions and Core Logic - Goldman Sachs predicts that Asian central banks will continue to increase gold holdings over the next 3-6 years, with monthly purchases expected to reach 70 tons by 2025, a 40% increase from previous forecasts [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates twice this year has risen to 65%, which will enhance gold's anti-inflation properties [1] - Geopolitical risks, including uncertainties from Trump's tariff policies and Middle Eastern tensions, have led to a 12.6-ton increase in global gold ETF holdings in March [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its end-2025 gold price target to $3300 per ounce, with extreme scenarios potentially reaching $4200 due to central bank purchases and ETF inflows [1] - Other institutions like Zheshang Securities and Zhongzheng Pengyuan also provided optimistic price forecasts, indicating strong support from geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [1] Key Signals and Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are advised to gradually build positions through gold ETFs or bank accumulation gold, utilizing dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks [1] - Short-term traders should monitor the resistance range of $3050-$3100; a breakout could lead to targets around $3150, while a drop below $3000 may trigger selling [1] - Technical indicators suggest potential short-term pullbacks, with the RSI showing overbought conditions [1] - Policy risks include potential delays in Federal Reserve rate cuts or peace agreements in Ukraine, which could reverse market sentiment [1] Market Outlook and Asset Allocation - Optimistic scenario (30% probability): Escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected Fed rate cuts could push gold prices above $3300, benefiting gold stocks [2] - Neutral scenario (50% probability): Prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels, suitable for options strategies to capture volatility [2] - Pessimistic scenario (20% probability): A stronger-than-expected global economic recovery could lead to a drop in gold prices below $2800 [2] - Conservative investors are recommended to allocate 10%-15% to gold ETFs or physical gold to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [2] - Aggressive investors may consider a 20%-25% allocation to gold futures and mining stocks, using leverage while controlling total exposure to 30% of their capital [2]