黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金技术面分析：黄金昨晚美盘地缘避险支撑黄金上涨，美联储降息预期概率提升至八成，黄金向上形成支撑，黄金已经有效突破站稳4100一线，日线收大 阳。昨日欧盘在次低点4040做了w底，企稳后上涨。仔细观察这段时间行情，都是做出w底上涨。由于昨日强势收盘，今日看惯性上涨，关注日内回调做多 机会，预计回调4110-4100附近关注做多机会。上方强压力位于4180-4200附近，即三角形上轨区域。今日方面，形成了早间上升的格局，这就出现分化点， 早间低点后上升，这种走势中，分水岭早间低点，按照双双原则，分水岭不能破。所以，继续看涨，那么午后调整的幅度不会过大，太大就变形了。按照小 时线大阳来说，今日日内做多的位置在4110-4100一线。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上贺博生建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注 4155-4175一线阻力，下方短期重点关注4110-4090一线支撑。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持 ...

来源：中国黄金网 对于黄金市场而言，近期重要影响因素仍需关注以下几方面： 编辑|焦扬 版式|焦扬 视觉|张宗伟 校对|王蓓 审读|倪金合 3.延迟经济数据成关键变量，美国9月非农就业等延迟数据本周密集发布，市场预期非农新增就业6.5万 人左右，失业率4.3%，数据表现将直接影响降息预期。 4.全球央行购金提供长期支撑，中长期将继续支撑金价。 展望本周，国际金价大概率呈震荡偏强走势，核心逻辑仍为地缘避险与宽松预期双重支撑。从技术面来 看，下方3990美元/盎司一线支撑强劲，若站稳4055美元/盎司，有望再度冲击4080~4100美元/盎司。若 跌破关键支撑，或测试3950美元/盎司。需警惕数据与货币政策观点引发的短期波动，整体波动区间预 计在3950~4100美元/盎司。 （以上内容不构成投资建议或操作指南，为作者本人观点，不代表本平台立场） 1.地缘局势将持续托底，区域冲突潜在风险为国际金价提供稳定避险支撑，短期难有实质性缓和。 2.美联储政策博弈主导波动，本周将公布10月货币政策会议纪要及核心官员讲话，市场聚焦通胀判断与 降息时点讨论。当前12月降息概率已跌至44%，纪要与讲话将进一步校准市场预期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent short-term pullback in the international gold market is not a signal of trend reversal but rather a favorable opportunity for medium to long-term investment in gold due to factors like de-dollarization, geopolitical uncertainties, and the need for asset allocation [1][2]. Group 2 - As of October 27, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) has decreased by 0.46%, with a latest price of 8.89 yuan, while it has seen a cumulative increase of 4.02% over the past two weeks as of October 24 [1]. - The liquidity of the gold ETF fund shows a turnover of 2.14% and a transaction volume of 8.38 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 26.81 billion yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [1]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks added a net total of 1,136 tons of gold in 2024, marking a historical high, with emerging market central banks being the primary contributors to this increase [1]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates in October is 1.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 98.3% [2]. - Recent data indicates that the gold ETF fund experienced a net outflow of 1.86 million yuan, but over the past five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 2.128 billion yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, with a drop of 5.39% on October 21, has raised concerns among investors about whether this marks a reversal or merely a correction in the market [1][3][4]. Price Movement - On October 21, COMEX gold prices fell from $4,350 per ounce to around $4,130 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop of the year [3][4]. - Following the initial drop, gold prices continued to decline, with spot gold falling nearly 3% on October 22 before stabilizing at $4,063.48 per ounce [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment has been significantly impacted, with many who were previously bullish on gold now feeling uncertain and considering selling their positions [7][8]. - The recent price movements have led to comparisons with previous market behaviors, particularly recalling a similar situation in April 2023 when gold prices entered a prolonged period of stagnation after a brief surge [8]. Influencing Factors - The volatility in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical developments, particularly the situation between Russia and Ukraine, which has shifted investor sentiment [6]. - Additionally, tightening liquidity in the U.S. financial system, as the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet, is believed to have contributed to the recent declines in gold prices [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, some analysts maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, citing ongoing concerns about the dollar's stability and the trend towards de-dollarization as key drivers for future demand [9][10]. - The World Gold Council suggests that the recent price drop could be a healthy adjustment after a rapid increase, and they believe that the upward trend in gold prices is not yet exhausted [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong upward trend in gold prices driven by multiple favorable factors, despite persistent inflation data [2] - 80% of Wall Street analysts are optimistic about gold prices this week, viewing gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [2] - Retail investors are more cautious, with 65% betting on rising gold prices while 35% believe a correction is imminent, reflecting a natural reaction to recent price surges [2] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include increased demand from ETFs and options, central banks like the People's Bank of China continuing to buy gold, and geopolitical instability [2] - Upcoming significant events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement, are expected to influence gold prices further, with a focus on economic data and central bank policies [3] - The overall sentiment in the gold market remains strong, but investors should be aware of potential technical corrections and shifts in market sentiment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in non-farm payrolls, leading to a resurgence in recession trading, emphasizing the importance of gold as a strategic investment opportunity. The market is increasingly concerned about demand falling below expectations, which may signal a return to relative gains for precious metals [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that the recent decline in non-farm payrolls has led to a renewed focus on the gold sector, with gold outperforming copper. This shift indicates growing market concerns about demand [5]. - Three catalysts are identified for the recent rise in gold prices: 1. Strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with nearly 90% probability for a September rate cut following dovish signals from Powell [5]. 2. Increased geopolitical risks, particularly from the Russia-Ukraine situation and trade tensions with India [5]. 3. Continued central bank purchases of gold, with global central banks increasing their gold holdings for ten consecutive months [5]. - The report suggests a shift towards increasing allocations in gold stocks, highlighting companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining as potential beneficiaries [5]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that expectations for interest rate cuts are driving stability in copper and aluminum prices. Copper prices have shown a slight increase, while aluminum prices have declined [6]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum have increased, with copper stocks rising by 5.79% week-on-week and aluminum stocks increasing by 0.87% [6]. - The report anticipates that while demand for copper and aluminum may decline in the second half of the year, the supply constraints will limit the extent of this decline [6]. - Key companies to watch in the copper sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Jinchuan Group, while in aluminum, companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Hong Kong China Aluminum are highlighted [6]. Strategic and Energy Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic value of rare earths and tungsten, noting that recent regulatory measures in China are likely to enhance the market for these metals [7]. - The report also highlights cobalt and nickel as metals with high supply concentration, with cobalt prices expected to rise due to strategic purchases by the U.S. government [7]. - Lithium is noted to be in a bottoming phase, with expectations for increased demand in energy storage applications [7]. Key companies in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, emphasizing the potential for a rebound in precious metals. The A-share bull market does not necessarily imply that gold will underperform, as the focus remains on the gold price itself. Three catalysts have driven the gold price breakout: 1) Strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a September rate cut rising to nearly 90%; 2) Renewed geopolitical risks, particularly the temporary tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation and trade concerns due to Trump's 50% tariff on India; 3) Continued central bank gold purchases, with global central banks increasing their gold holdings for nine consecutive months, and China maintaining net purchases in July [2][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, highlighting the potential for a rebound in the precious metals sector. The report suggests that the second round of interest rate cuts in September may lead to a quarterly-level resonance in gold stocks across price, valuation, and style dimensions. The report recommends increasing allocations to gold stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Shandong Gold International, and Shengda Resources [6][2]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are in the early stages of a cyclical reversal, with copper and aluminum leading the way. The recent rebound in industrial metals is attributed to enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar. The report notes that copper inventories have decreased, while aluminum inventories have increased. It anticipates that copper and aluminum demand may decline in the second half of the year, but supply elasticity will limit the extent of deterioration. The report suggests that copper and aluminum equities may outperform as the cycle reverses [7][6]. Strategic and Minor Metals - The report highlights the strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, as they are expected to undergo a value reassessment. The demand for rare earths is anticipated to recover due to improved orders and government policies emphasizing resource control. Tungsten prices are also expected to rise due to supply constraints. The report recommends focusing on companies involved in rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, as they are likely to benefit from these trends [8][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and geopolitical risk concerns on gold prices, questioning whether bullish sentiment can reverse the current market situation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is adopting a more dovish tone, which may influence market dynamics and investor sentiment towards gold [1] - Geopolitical risks are rising, contributing to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - An invitation is extended for a free training session focused on trading opportunities in the gold market, highlighting the urgency and limited availability of spots [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a short-term pullback after a surge, and questions whether the rebound can be sustained [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a rise followed by a short-term correction, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rebound [1] - The potential for geopolitical risks to support bullish sentiment in the gold market is also examined [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged to a maximum of $3440 per ounce, marking a 1.83% increase and reaching a nearly one-month high; Brent crude oil rose to $89.65 per barrel, with a 6.2% increase, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - Israel launched a military operation named "Operation Lion's Strength," deploying 24 F-35I fighter jets and submarines to strike six locations in Iran, claiming to have destroyed 90% of centrifuge equipment and resulting in the deaths of key Iranian nuclear scientists [3] - Iran responded by activating its border air defense systems and suspending all flights at Tehran Imam Khomeini Airport, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil transport routes [4] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices was driven by a combination of geopolitical risk and expectations of interest rate cuts, with gold jumping $30 due to these factors [5] - Data from the World Gold Council indicated that Middle Eastern central banks purchased 28 tons of gold in June, while SPDR Gold ETF saw a net inflow of 5.2 tons, reflecting increased demand amid rising market volatility [6] - The U.S. economic indicators, including a 2.6% year-on-year increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims reaching a near eight-month high, have led to an 82% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [6]