受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格不断创历史新高。 两日涨近200美元 现货黄金又破4500美元关口 中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲介绍，2025年国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的 4500美元/盎司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录。 具体来说，2025年金价波动可划分五个阶段： 第一阶段，1—4月，关税恐慌触发首轮暴涨，现货黄金从2900美元/盎司飙升至3500美元/盎司； 本月前三个交易日，国际金价持续上涨，现货黄金两日涨近200美元。 1月5日纽约尾盘，现货黄金大涨2.64%，收报4446.50美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨2.96%，报4457.60美元/盎司。6日纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨 1.09%，收报4495.14美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货价格上涨1.22%，收报4505.7美元/盎司。 7日早间，现货黄金持续拉升，时隔近两周盘中再次突破4500美元。截至发稿有所回落，微跌0.12%，报4489.274美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货 涨0.18%，报4504.3美元/盎司。 从2600到4500美 ...

来源：人民日报海外版 作者：张红 国际金价为何一路狂飙？ 受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格2025年底均创 历史新高。2025年，国际金价累计涨幅超过70%。金价狂飙的背后，以美元为中心的国际货币体系正在 动摇，美元信用正在削弱，此外还有AI产业推进带来的需求。本报邀请中国现代国际关系研究院研究 员陈凤英和中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲进行解读。 让人想起"尼克松冲击" 2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的4500美元/盎 司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录 【观察】 在多重因素推动下，国际金价在2025年屡创新高，尤其年底更是频频刷新纪录，全年累计涨幅约七成， 创下自1979年以来最强的年度表现。 国际黄金的首轮牛市始于美国前总统尼克松放弃金本位制并瓦解布雷顿森林货币体系之时。随着尼克松 政府着手扩大美国联邦赤字，通胀率飙升，再叠加两次石油价格冲击的影响，黄金价格从1971年8月的 每盎司35美元一路冲高，于1980年1月触及每盎司835美元的峰值。 【解读】 陈文玲：2025年这一轮国际金价上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline of Shanghai Silver in the afternoon of December 29, 2025, was the result of the resonance of macro - expectation reversal, concentrated speculation exit, and technical breakdown. Although short - term fluctuations have increased, the medium - term logic has not been completely broken [3]. - For A - shares, except for the Shanghai Composite Index's 9 - day consecutive positive trend, the other indexes showed high - level oscillations. The Shanghai Stock Index is expected to have limited adjustment, and low - buying is recommended if it doesn't effectively break below the 3910 - 3920 support range [5][6]. - Due to the continuous short - squeeze in silver and increased market volatility, caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Shanghai Silver - **Reasons for decline**: The probability of a US interest rate cut in January dropped to about 15%, increasing the opportunity cost of non - interest - bearing silver; there was a rush to take profits, with significant net capital outflows; geopolitical risk - aversion receded; and policy and delivery factors influenced the market [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: In the short term, focus on the 17,000 yuan/kg support. If it rebounds quickly, observe capital inflows and the recovery of the 19,000 integer mark. In the medium term, due to the tight supply and low inventory, one should not take a unilateral short position. It is recommended to control positions strictly, set stop - losses, and focus on short - term operations [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The market showed a significant decline, dragging down the entire index. Technically, the daily - line upward trend is intact, while small - cycle adjustments are occurring, with limited expected adjustment intensity. Low - buying is recommended if the Shanghai Stock Index does not effectively break below the 3910 - 3920 support range [5]. 3.3 Gold - Due to the continuous short - squeeze in silver and increased market fluctuations, caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9]. 3.4 Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is intensifying. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended, with high - selling and low - buying [11][12]. 3.5 Glass - Technically, there are signs of bottom - stabilization recently, and bottom - fishing buying can be considered. The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has accumulated this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies [15][16]. 3.6 Methanol - As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The market in the sales area is relatively strong under multiple positive factors [17]. 3.7 Pulp - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports of Chinese pulp was 1.906 million tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.4%. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and the market is expected to be in an oscillating state [20].

2025.12.29-12.31 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格上涨由货币宽松预期与地缘避险共同驱动。美联储降息前 景压低实际利率，增强黄金吸引力，而美委局势等地缘风险则提供脉冲 支撑。资金面上，全球央行持续购金与国内黄金ETF规模创新高，形成 需求共振。技术上，金价突破前高，显强势。短期需警惕风险：金价年 内涨幅大，存在获利了结压力；且若美国经济数据强劲或地缘局势缓和， 可能削弱上涨动能。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2602谨慎看多，上方压力位985－1000元/克，下方支撑 位935－950元/克，建议逢低买入。 本周策略建议 [图片] 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，上方压力位1011－1026元/克，下方 支撑位988－1000元/克，建议逢低买入，注意元旦假期风险。 品种诊断情况 | 黄金(au) v 品种诊断 机构观点 | | 盈利 ...

图 1： 沪银 2602 走势图 成文日期：20251223 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:沪银 研究员：曹柏泉（从业资格号：F03122015；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019820) 沪银期货日报 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251223）沪银主力 2602 合约延续强势上行态势，盘 中最高触及 16,573 元/千克,创出历史新高,最终收于 16,441 元/ 千克，日线收小阳线，日涨幅 4.30%。市场多头情绪高涨。 数据来源:文华财经 1.2 品种行情 沪银主力 2602 合约当日成交量达 1230157 手，较前一交易日 下降约 27.8%,显示市场高位震荡下资金交投趋于谨慎,部分获利 筹码兑现离场。持仓量维持相对高位,达 340510 手,较前一交易日 小幅减少，表明多头主力未出现大规模撤离，持仓结构依旧稳固。 整体市场呈现 "量缩价涨" 特征,反映资金在高位博弈加剧,看涨 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 情绪仍占据主导。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current silver price trend shows dual - wheel drive characteristics, with the core being the increased instability of the credit currency system and the indication by the gold - silver ratio that the global economy is moving towards re - inflation [1]. - The fundamental aspect of silver is generally strong, but its strength is mainly based on investment and allocation needs rather than consumption - based demand [1]. - New industrial demands, especially the explosive growth of photovoltaic demand for silver, form the base of silver demand, while financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand for silver [1]. - The gradual repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of each silver bull market, and it also measures market risk preference this year [2]. - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage, but there are still many factors supporting the continued strengthening of silver prices, and the strong price state will last for a long time [2]. Summary by Related Questions 1. Core drivers, sustainability, and fundamental changes of silver price increase - The core drivers are the instability of the credit currency system and the indication of re - inflation by the gold - silver ratio. The fundamental aspect of silver is strong, and the strength comes from investment and allocation needs [1]. 2. Roles of new industrial and financial factors in silver demand - Photovoltaic demand has increased from less than 5% to 20% in the past five years, forming the base of silver demand. Financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand [1]. 3. Nature of the gold - silver ratio repair - The repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of the silver bull market and measures market risk preference this year. When market risk aversion eases, the gold - silver ratio decreases, often leading to an independent silver market [2]. 4. Stage of the silver bull market - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage in terms of time, but there are many factors supporting the continued rise of silver prices, and the strong price will last for a long time [2].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have sparked significant market discussions, with some investors strategically exiting while others are buying against the trend [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices have rebounded to around $4,300, with Comex gold showing a year-to-date increase of over 60% [2]. - Gold ETFs have seen substantial inflows, with the popular gold ETF (159934) rising 53.52% this year and net inflows reaching 12.64 billion yuan [2]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market concerns about global energy and food supply chains [6][7]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The potential for U.S. military actions adds to market uncertainty, as recent statements from Trump suggest new military engagements could arise [8]. - The macroeconomic landscape is also shifting, with speculation about a dovish candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, which could create significant discrepancies in market expectations regarding monetary policy [10][11]. - The intertwining of geopolitical conflicts and central bank policy directions points to a future of potential macroeconomic volatility [12]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Demand - The demand for gold is supported by structural factors, with central banks expected to purchase over 800 tons of gold by the third quarter of 2025, continuing a strong trend since 2022 [16]. - The strategic motivations behind central bank gold purchases have evolved from merely diversifying foreign exchange reserves to a focus on risk mitigation [16]. - The ongoing demand for gold as a neutral asset amidst geopolitical tensions and financial sanctions enhances its strategic value [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is at a critical juncture, with traditional asset pricing models failing under high debt, volatility, and policy uncertainty, increasing the demand for reliable value storage tools like gold [19]. - Geopolitical conflicts are expected to continue driving demand for gold, as unresolved issues will sustain the need for hedging against risks [22]. - The outlook for gold remains positive, supported by expectations of a potential recession and the likelihood of rapid interest rate cuts by central banks [29][30]. Group 5: Investment Vehicles and Performance - Gold ETFs are becoming increasingly popular due to their low costs and liquidity, with the latest scale of gold ETF (159934) reaching 34.7 billion yuan [32]. - Gold stocks have also performed well, with the E Fund CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index (A: 021362; C: 021363) showing a year-to-date increase of over 79% [33]. - The index focuses on key companies in the gold and copper sectors, including major players like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [33].

黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金技术面分析：黄金昨晚美盘地缘避险支撑黄金上涨，美联储降息预期概率提升至八成，黄金向上形成支撑，黄金已经有效突破站稳4100一线，日线收大 阳。昨日欧盘在次低点4040做了w底，企稳后上涨。仔细观察这段时间行情，都是做出w底上涨。由于昨日强势收盘，今日看惯性上涨，关注日内回调做多 机会，预计回调4110-4100附近关注做多机会。上方强压力位于4180-4200附近，即三角形上轨区域。今日方面，形成了早间上升的格局，这就出现分化点， 早间低点后上升，这种走势中，分水岭早间低点，按照双双原则，分水岭不能破。所以，继续看涨，那么午后调整的幅度不会过大，太大就变形了。按照小 时线大阳来说，今日日内做多的位置在4110-4100一线。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上贺博生建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注 4155-4175一线阻力，下方短期重点关注4110-4090一线支撑。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持 ...

来源：中国黄金网 对于黄金市场而言，近期重要影响因素仍需关注以下几方面： 编辑|焦扬 版式|焦扬 视觉|张宗伟 校对|王蓓 审读|倪金合 3.延迟经济数据成关键变量，美国9月非农就业等延迟数据本周密集发布，市场预期非农新增就业6.5万 人左右，失业率4.3%，数据表现将直接影响降息预期。 4.全球央行购金提供长期支撑，中长期将继续支撑金价。 展望本周，国际金价大概率呈震荡偏强走势，核心逻辑仍为地缘避险与宽松预期双重支撑。从技术面来 看，下方3990美元/盎司一线支撑强劲，若站稳4055美元/盎司，有望再度冲击4080~4100美元/盎司。若 跌破关键支撑，或测试3950美元/盎司。需警惕数据与货币政策观点引发的短期波动，整体波动区间预 计在3950~4100美元/盎司。 （以上内容不构成投资建议或操作指南，为作者本人观点，不代表本平台立场） 1.地缘局势将持续托底，区域冲突潜在风险为国际金价提供稳定避险支撑，短期难有实质性缓和。 2.美联储政策博弈主导波动，本周将公布10月货币政策会议纪要及核心官员讲话，市场聚焦通胀判断与 降息时点讨论。当前12月降息概率已跌至44%，纪要与讲话将进一步校准市场预期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent short-term pullback in the international gold market is not a signal of trend reversal but rather a favorable opportunity for medium to long-term investment in gold due to factors like de-dollarization, geopolitical uncertainties, and the need for asset allocation [1][2]. Group 2 - As of October 27, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) has decreased by 0.46%, with a latest price of 8.89 yuan, while it has seen a cumulative increase of 4.02% over the past two weeks as of October 24 [1]. - The liquidity of the gold ETF fund shows a turnover of 2.14% and a transaction volume of 8.38 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 26.81 billion yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [1]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks added a net total of 1,136 tons of gold in 2024, marking a historical high, with emerging market central banks being the primary contributors to this increase [1]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates in October is 1.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 98.3% [2]. - Recent data indicates that the gold ETF fund experienced a net outflow of 1.86 million yuan, but over the past five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 2.128 billion yuan [2].