Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If the geopolitical conflict persists and supports oil prices at a high level, inflation stickiness expectations may strengthen, pushing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to remain strong, which may suppress the rebound space of precious metals. However, if the slowdown of the US economy is further verified by data, with weak non - farm payroll data and significantly higher CPI inflation, gold prices may benefit from the substantial increase in stagflation risks. In the long - term, central banks' continuous gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit still exist, and gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains. The strategy can be short - term wait - and - see and long - term bargain - hunting [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 16.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 17707 yuan/kg, up 218 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 180,953 hands, up 11,870 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 25,923 hands, down 6,769 hands. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 393,515 hands, up 77,112 hands; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,060,304 hands, up 186,734 hands. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 106,644 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 374,427 kg, up 2,628 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1008.75 yuan/gram, up 14.85 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 17,305 yuan/kg, up 157 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.13 yuan/gram, down 1.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 402 yuan/kg, down 61 yuan [2] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1052.70 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 15,409.46 tons, unchanged. - The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC are 168,327 contracts, up 8,458 contracts; the non - commercial net long positions of silver in CFTC are 24,673 contracts, up 2,792 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. - The US dollar index is 100.18, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.13%, up 0.05% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index is 31.05, up 3.61; the CBOE gold volatility index is 45.51, up 0.44. - The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price is 1.41, down 0.04; the gold - silver ratio is 66.44, up 0.21 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. The US vice - president says the US has no intention to stay in Iran. - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to be intense and stalemate, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the degree and frequency of air - raids on Tehran increasing. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of the US economic recession due to the continuous Middle - East conflict, soaring oil prices and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%, and Goldman Sachs has raised it to 30%. - A "weeks - long quick victory" ground - war plan of the US military in Iran is exposed, and the US Department of Defense is preparing for a weeks - long ground operation in Iran, with over 50,000 US troops in the Middle - East. - Trump will submit an annual budget request to the US Congress on April 3, seeking a significant increase in defense spending and a reduction in the scale of domestic institutions, with the proposed national security spending possibly reaching up to $1.5 trillion. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.9%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hikes by June is 8.8%, 50 - basis - point hikes is 0.1%, and keeping rates unchanged is 91.1% [2] 6. Key Points to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index - April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment Number - April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI - April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 - April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance - April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls Change [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][7] Core Insights - The precious metals sector has experienced significant price corrections, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [4][6][7] - The market dynamics have shifted from a focus on potential interest rate cuts to a more complex interplay of high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and trade policy uncertainties, which supports gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns [7] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - In the past two weeks, London spot gold fell by 10.71% to $4504.15 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price dropped by 11.86% to ¥998.66 per gram. Silver prices also saw declines, with London spot silver down 19.00% to $67.80 per ounce [6][11][15] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating uncertainty regarding the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the U.S. economy. Market expectations have shifted towards potential interest rate hikes rather than cuts [6][7] 3. Positioning and Trading Volume - The trading volume for Shanghai gold decreased by 12.56% to 273,700 contracts, while silver trading volume fell by 6.25% to 452,700 contracts [11][15] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The domestic gold price difference was -6.39 yuan per gram, a decrease of 24.96 yuan from two weeks prior. The silver price difference was 1979.60 yuan per kilogram, down 1051.30 yuan [61] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis was -$17.15 per ounce, a decrease of $38.65 from two weeks ago, while the domestic gold basis was -6.21 yuan per gram, down 4.46 yuan [70][71]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market from Ruida Futures Research Institute, covering the period up to March 27, 2026 [2] - The report analyzes the precious metals market from aspects including market trends, supply - demand, and macro - data [6] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market showed a volatile pattern of initial stabilization and then decline. The pricing logic is a repeated game between "geopolitical hedging, re - inflation expectations, and high - interest - rate constraints" [8] - In the short - term, the precious metals market will continue to play out based on the development of the US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. Inflation expectations, central bank policies, oil prices, and the US dollar are current major risk factors. In the long - term, gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains [8] - The strategy suggests short - term caution and long - term buying on dips [8] Group 4: Weekly Summary Market Trends - This week, the precious metals market first stabilized and then declined. Geopolitical factors and macro - economic data affected the market. The US - Iran situation caused fluctuations in oil prices and the US dollar, and macro - data showed a slowdown in economic sentiment and strong core inflation [8] Future Outlook - The precious metals market will continue to be affected by the US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and potential stagflation risks. If the US economy slows and inflation rises, precious metals may benefit. Otherwise, their rebound space will be limited [8] Group 5: Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 was at 17,489 yuan/kg, down 0.77% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 was at 998.66 yuan/g, down 3.90% for the week [13] ETF Holdings - As of March 26, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF net position decreased by 0.89% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF net position increased by 1.50% month - on - month [18] - As of February 2026, European gold ETF investment demand declined, while North American and Asian demand remained strong [19] Net Long Positions - As of March 17, 2026, COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased, with gold down 2.0% and silver down 10.79% [28] Basis and Spread - As of March 26, 2026, the basis of Shanghai gold and silver main contracts weakened week - on - week; the internal - external spread of gold and silver narrowed week - on - week [31][34] Inventory Changes - As of March 19, 2026, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while SHFE gold and silver inventories increased [37] Gold - Silver Ratio - As of March 19, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/silver price) was 64.36, down 1.80% ( - 2.72%) from the previous week [41] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver Industry - As of February 2026, silver ore and concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, while silver imports increased month - on - month [45] - Due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, integrated circuit production continued to rise, with a stable year - on - year growth rate [47] Gold Supply - Demand - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand reaching 2175 tons. Gold ETF net positions increased by 801 tons [53] Silver Supply - Demand - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to increased mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly [55] Group 7: Macro and Options Macro Data - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued to strengthen. As of March 26, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.90, up 0.70% week - on - week; the 10Y US Treasury real yield was 2.02%, up 0.16% week - on - week [62] - The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded significantly, and the S&P 500/London gold price ratio rebounded [64] Central Bank Gold Buying - Since the beginning of the year, the pace of global central bank gold buying has cooled, but in the long - term, gold as a macro - hedging asset remains attractive. As of the end of February 2026, China's gold reserves reached 74.22 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of January [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For gold and silver, due to the ongoing Middle - East conflict, high oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations in the US and economic suppression. The Fed maintained rates in March, and the market's expectation of rate cuts within the year is less than once. The US dollar index is strong, so gold and silver may continue to be under pressure and adjust. As the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts changes, gold and silver may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the return of the gold - silver ratio [4]. - For platinum and palladium, short - term fundamental data is limited. In the medium term, platinum is in a tight - balance situation, while palladium is in a surplus situation. Also, the guidance of the gold price needs to be considered in the medium term. This week, they may follow the weak trend of the gold price, and the platinum - palladium ratio may continue to strengthen [4]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **Gold**: London gold dropped from $5044.6/oz to $4562.55/oz, a decrease of $482; COMEX gold dropped from $5023.1/oz to $4492/oz, a decrease of $531. The inventory of COMEX gold decreased by 497,287 ounces, and the COMEX gold warehouse receipt decreased by 176,808 ounces. The gold - silver ratio of COMEX increased from 62.21 to 67.45 [8]. - **Silver**: London silver dropped from $83.695/oz to $72.37/oz, a decrease of $11; COMEX silver dropped from $80.7125/oz to $67.85/oz, a decrease of $13. The inventory of COMEX silver decreased by 9,027,954 ounces, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipt increased by 247,197 ounces [8]. - **Platinum**: London platinum dropped from $2077/oz to $1978/oz, a decrease of $99; NYMEX platinum dropped from $2024.5/oz to $1920.1/oz, a decrease of $104. The NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 3,167 ounces, and the NYMEX platinum warehouse receipt decreased by 5,012 ounces. The NYMEX platinum - palladium ratio increased from 1.30 to 1.36 [8]. - **Palladium**: London palladium dropped from $1612/oz to $1434/oz, a decrease of $178; NYMEX palladium dropped from $1561/oz to $1414.5/oz, a decrease of $147. The NYMEX palladium inventory increased by 47,658 ounces, and the NYMEX palladium warehouse receipt increased by 47,658 ounces [8]. 02 Market Analysis - **Market News**: - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% in March, and the market's expectation of rate cuts within 2026 decreased to less than once. The expected first rate - cut time was postponed to July 2027 [11]. - Spot gold fell below $4500/oz, and the gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.62% in a week, the largest weekly decline in 15 years. The market trading theme has shifted from "geopolitical hedging" to "inflation expectation and monetary policy game" [11]. - The volatility premium of precious metals is negative, indicating that the market expects price fluctuations to converge [11]. - South Africa's platinum - group metal production has declined for four consecutive years, and the global market may face a structural shortage [12]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading rules for platinum and palladium futures contracts, including the minimum order quantity, daily price limit, and margin standard [12]. - The platinum leasing market activity declined in 2025 due to high financing costs, reducing market liquidity [12].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 17, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Affected by the Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, market concerns about inflation rebound have increased. Coupled with geopolitical risk - aversion demand, the US dollar index has strengthened continuously. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in this week's meeting is as high as 99.2%, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has been significantly revised down, further consolidating the strong position of the US dollar. Base metals have all declined under pressure. The zinc price is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures, the 2603 contract opened at 24,140 yuan/ton, closed at 24,230 yuan/ton, with a decline of 95 yuan and a decline rate of 0.39%, and the position decreased by 85; the 2604 contract opened at 24,245 yuan/ton, closed at 24,300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 120 yuan and a decline rate of 0.49%, and the position decreased by 1,494; the 2605 contract opened at 24,230 yuan/ton, closed at 24,340 yuan/ton, with a decline of 130 yuan and a decline rate of 0.53%, and the position increased by 623 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell below the 24,000 - yuan mark, closing at 23,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 315 yuan or 1.30%. On the 16th, LME inventory decreased by 400 tons to 90,800 tons, 0 - 3C was 42.63, and the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.27. The average domestic TC price of SMM Zn50 this week remained flat at 1,550 yuan/metal ton. Although the offers of imported ore increased, due to overseas supply disruptions, the imported zinc concentrate index continued to decline to 11.25 US dollars/ton. With the resumption of refineries and the increase in natural days, the refined zinc output in March will increase month - on - month. On Monday, the SMM zinc ingot inventory continued to accumulate, increasing by 0.7 tons to 27.58 tons compared with last Friday. As the price dropped, downstream buyers increased their spot purchases at low prices. The social inventory may decline slightly this week, but the inflection point of inventory decline has not been confirmed [7]. 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transactions on March 16, 2026**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,755 - 24,040 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 23,685 - 23,970 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the SMM average price and no offer to the futures price [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream price of 0 zinc was around 23,775 - 24,030 yuan/ton. Regular brands in Ningbo offered a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in Ningbo was to quote against the 2604 contract [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 23,760 - 24,080 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded between 23,800 - 24,090 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 23,720 - 24,010 yuan/ton. Zijin offered a discount of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and Huxin was quoted at 24,600 yuan/ton [8]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 23,775 - 24,060 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands offered a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. At first, holders offered a discount of 70 - 60 yuan/ton for brands such as Qilin and Lanxin [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE month - to - month spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] - Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] - For the chemical industry, short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] - For the agricultural products, the short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk; peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement; cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; soybean meal and soybean oil may fluctuate in a range; rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term; rapeseed oil should pay attention to the upper price platform pressure; the pig price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation; egg prices may continue to run at a low level, and medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - For the metals, Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern; Shanghai aluminum operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; alumina supply is expected to be in excess, but there is support near the cost line; cast aluminum alloy prices are strongly linked to Shanghai aluminum, and attention should be paid to cost and demand marginal changes; lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend; industrial silicon may not have a trend market in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended; polysilicon trading is sluggish, and participation is not recommended [25][26][27][29][30][31][32] - For the black metals, stainless steel may fluctuate in the short term; steel prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be strongly volatile; iron ore may maintain a bearish trend, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and demand repair rhythm; coking coal and coke may maintain a weak - volatile pattern in the short term [33][34][35][36][37][38][39] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Information**: In 2026, the government work report set the tone of implementing a more proactive and effective macro - policy. The economy is in a mild recovery stage, with rising prices but a weak manufacturing PMI, indicating that the endogenous economic power is still being repaired. The low - interest - rate environment supports the valuation of equity assets, and the expected PPI recovery is beneficial to the cyclical sectors and the overall corporate profit expectations [3] - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the leading gainers included non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and electronics, while the leading decliners included coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and building decoration. The current market sector rotation shows a clear new - quality productivity orientation, with funds flowing from traditional cyclical, financial, and real - estate sectors to science - and - technology innovation, high - end manufacturing, and upstream material sectors [3] - **Reference View**: Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The US ADP employment in February added 63,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, strengthening the resilience of the labor market. The Middle East military conflict has entered the sixth day, causing concerns about energy supply and inflation transmission [4] - **Market Analysis**: On March 5, the Asian session of spot gold recovered part of the previous day's losses. The gold market is in a game between geopolitical risk - aversion demand and changes in monetary policy expectations. Strong employment data has led to a re - pricing of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The strong US dollar index suppresses the valuation of gold [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] Silver - **External Price and Inventory**: The silver market performs weaker than gold. The COMEX registered deliverable silver inventory has dropped to a very low level of 88.77 million ounces, a significant decrease of about 30% compared to early January. China has implemented export controls on silver since January [6] - **Market Analysis**: Silver presents a pattern of "physical shortage support" and "industrial demand concerns" intertwined. If the inventory level further decreases, it may strengthen the physical - level support. Geopolitical conflicts may suppress manufacturing demand [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] Chemical Industry PTA - **Spot Information**: The East China spot price is 5,805 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 32 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton) [8] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict has pushed up the cost price. The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The average PTA processing interval in China is 416.31 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.13% and a year - on - year increase of 61.06%. The device start - up rate has rebounded to 76.53% (+6.17%). The industry shows a pattern of inventory accumulation, and the demand has been repaired after the festival [8] - **Reference View**: Short - term attention should be paid to the continuity of geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 4,170 yuan/ton (+196 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 14 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton) [9] - **Market Analysis**: After the festival, the production has steadily increased. The total production has reached 42.98 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%. The coal - chemical production is 15.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.96%. The port inventory in East China has increased. The demand has increased, but the high port inventory still suppresses the price [9] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the cost - side oil price trend and the downstream resumption of work rhythm [9] Plastic - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [10] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of polyethylene devices in China has decreased slightly. The demand side shows that the overall start - up rate of downstream enterprises is 18.22%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises is 57.97 million tons. The futures price has risen for four consecutive days due to the Iran situation. In the short term, polyethylene will mainly fluctuate in a range, and there may be upward space after inventory digestion and full resumption of work by downstream enterprises [10] - **Reference View**: It is expected that plastic will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [10] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1188 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [11] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the overall start - up rate of soda ash is 86.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and the production is 80.70 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.61 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average. The market may enter a stage of game between weak reality and external factors [11] - **Reference View**: The futures market rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on bottom - range fluctuations [11] Glass - **Spot Information**: The market price of 5mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area is 1023 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [13] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of float glass is 71.19%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.58%, and the weekly production is 103.84 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13 million tons. The inventory has continued to accumulate. The terminal demand is weak, and the downstream start - up is weak. The market may be disturbed by global energy price surges and the two sessions [13] - **Reference View**: The futures market fluctuated narrowly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a bottom - range fluctuation strategy [13] Methanol - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in Zhejiang, Xinjiang, and Hebei have different fluctuations [14] - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the methanol main contract MA605 has decreased. The port inventory has decreased slightly. The domestic methanol industry start - up rate is high, but the demand from MTO and MTBE devices and traditional downstream industries is weak. The geopolitical trading logic and logistics uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz increase market uncertainty [14] - **Reference View**: The futures price may fluctuate in a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline due to the ebb of geopolitical premium or oil price fluctuations. Track the resumption progress of Iranian devices, port inventory reduction, and the increase in MTO device load [14] Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai are provided [15] - **Market Analysis**: The February USDA supply - demand report has limited adjustments to US corn data. Domestically, the corn quality in the Northeast is good, but the short - term supply is tight due to weather and state - reserve rotation. If the weather warms up, the market supply may increase, and downstream enterprises have limited willingness to accept high - priced corn [15] - **Reference View**: The short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk [15] Peanut - **Spot Price**: Peanut prices are mainly stable, with individual regions having slight adjustments. The market trading is not active [16] - **Market Analysis**: After the Lantern Festival, the market trading is gradually recovering, and the supply may increase with the temperature rise. The demand from small food factories has not started, but some large oil mills have raised the purchase price. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [16] - **Reference View**: Peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement, and cautious operation is recommended [16] Cotton - **Spot Information**: The China Cotton Spot Price Index (CC3128B) is 16,583 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 16,396 yuan/ton [17] - **Market Analysis**: The US Department of Agriculture expects a decline in production and ending inventory in China and the US, and the macro - environment is favorable for demand. The new cotton planting will start in March, and the cotton planting area is expected to decline in the long term. The downstream enterprises are resuming work, and the peak consumption season is coming [17] - **Reference View**: Cotton prices will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [17] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions vary [18] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the external market trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and biodiesel - stimulated domestic demand. South American soybeans are in the harvest season, and the market expects a bumper harvest. Domestically, high costs and abundant supply are in a game, and the downstream replenishment is limited [18] - **Reference View**: Soybean meal may fluctuate in a range, and cautious operation is recommended [18] Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions have slightly increased [19] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, geopolitical conflicts and bio - fuel policies have pushed up the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is entering the off - season, and the market is dominated by macro - emotions [19] - **Reference View**: Soybean oil has stopped rising and is adjusting. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [19] Rapeseed Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of imported powder meal in Macong Port is RM2605 + 40 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [20] - **Market Analysis**: The suspension of the 100% tariff on Canadian oil cakes is optimistic for US soybean demand, but the pressure from Brazilian soybean harvest may suppress the price. The supply is expected to recover, and the downstream demand is weak [20] - **Reference View**: The 2605 contract of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term [20] Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Market**: The basis price of imported and pressed tertiary rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang is OI05 + 450 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [21] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict and the expected US bio - fuel policy have driven up the price of domestic vegetable oils. The increase in the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed has limited impact. The current market is in the off - season, and the spot market is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment [21] - **Reference View**: For the 2605 contract of rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the upper price platform pressure and risk prevention [21] Pig - **Spot Market**: The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas has decreased [22] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic pig market continues to be weak. The supply is abundant due to pre - Spring Festival concentrated slaughter and continuous release of production capacity. The demand is weak as consumers are still consuming pre - holiday stocks, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The pig price is under pressure in the near term [22][23] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation [23] Egg - **Spot Market**: The average egg price in the main production areas has decreased [24] - **Market Analysis**: The previous - period replenishment was relatively low, and the new - laying pressure is not large. The egg - laying hen inventory is still declining. The culling rhythm of old hens is slow, but the farming side's culling willingness may increase as the egg price falls. The demand is weak after the end of stocking, and the egg price may continue to run at a low level [24] - **Reference View**: Medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [24] Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The spot price of East China copper is 101,575 (+145) yuan/ton, with a premium of 445 [25] - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side pressure is significant, with the domestic social inventory reaching a historical high. The copper concentrate processing fee is in a deep negative range, indicating a tight supply at the mine end. The demand shows a structural differentiation, with the downstream processing link weak but the power grid investment and new - energy - related orders strong. The short - term price is suppressed by high inventory and spot discounts, but there is support from geopolitical risk premium and post - Lantern - Festival resumption of work [25] - **Reference View**: It is resistant to decline when the sector sentiment is weak. Aggressive investors can participate at low prices when the sentiment is right, while conservative investors can wait and see [25] Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai spot aluminum price is 25,082 yuan/ton, up 706, with a discount of 140 [25] - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the instability of overseas aluminum supply, boosting the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the supply is rigid. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased [26] - **Reference View**: Operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [26] Alumina - **Spot Information**: The national average price of alumina is 2,675 yuan/ton, up 4, with a discount of 125 [27] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of bauxite has increased, and the domestic alumina production capacity is being restored. The supply is expected to be in excess, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has continued to increase [27] - **Reference View**: In the short term, the long - and short - term forces are temporarily balanced due to overseas and domestic supply - side disturbances, but the supply - excess expectation remains unchanged [28] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy is 24,30

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong stock market's performance on February 23, 2023, where the Hong Kong Non-Ferrous Metals Index rose by 4.51% [1][1][1] - The overall sentiment in the market is driven by geopolitical factors and tariff responses, with precious metals leading the gains, followed by basic and new energy metals [1][1][1] Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - Gold and precious metals are viewed as the strongest performers, with notable increases in stock prices: Tongguan Gold +12%, Chifeng Gold +7%, Zijin Mining International +6%, and China National Gold +6% [2][2][2] - Key drivers include geopolitical risk, gold price recovery, central bank purchases, and expectations of interest rate cuts [2][2][2] New Energy Metals - Lithium and new energy metals are also performing well, with Ganfeng Lithium +8% and Tianqi Lithium +3% [2][2][2] - Factors contributing to this include ongoing inventory depletion, positive demand expectations, and valuation recovery in the sector [2][2][2] Basic Metals - Basic metals like copper and aluminum are following the upward trend, with significant gains from companies such as Minmetals Resources +6% and Jiangxi Copper +4% [2][2][2] - The positive outlook is attributed to a pause in tariff disruptions, rising oil prices, economic recovery expectations, and a weaker dollar [2][2][2] Tariff Policy Changes - On February 20, 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous tariffs imposed by Trump were illegal, leading to the cancellation of approximately $170 billion in tariffs [2][2][2] - A new temporary tariff of 15% on global imports was announced, effective February 24, 2023, for a duration of 150 days, which could impact industrial metals positively while having a neutral effect on precious metals [2][2][2] Geopolitical Tensions - The escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions is noted, with potential sanctions and military actions that could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][3][3] - The situation is expected to raise inflationary pressures due to increased shipping costs, further benefiting precious metals [3][3][3] Sector-Specific Updates Copper Sector - Major mining companies are revising their production guidance downward due to operational challenges, with Anglo American reducing its 2026 production forecast to 700,000-760,000 tons [7][7][7] - The global supply growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted down to 2%, indicating a significant supply gap of over 600,000 tons [7][7][7] Lithium Demand - Lithium demand is projected to continue rising, with inventory levels dropping significantly and a notable agreement between Tianhua and PLS for lithium supply [7][7][7] - The agreement highlights the scarcity of lithium resources and the importance of securing supply for major manufacturers [8][8][8] Aluminum Industry - The Mozal aluminum plant is set to transition to maintenance mode by March 15, 2026, which will significantly impact production levels [9][9][9] - Century Aluminum announced an early restart of its Icelandic aluminum plant, which could reduce expected production cuts for 2026 [13][13][13] Additional Insights - The SPDR gold holdings have increased, reflecting a rise in gold prices during the holiday period, with gold reaching $5,173 per ounce and silver increasing by 14.15% [8][8][8] - The U.S. economic data remains mixed, with expectations of two interest rate cuts within the year, which could further influence market dynamics [8][8][8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly focusing on precious metals, energy metals, strategic metals, and industrial metals, with a notable emphasis on the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal index, which rose by 4.51% on February 23, 2023 [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The company is optimistic about precious metals > energy metals > strategic metals = industrial metals, indicating a strong preference for investing in precious metals due to current market conditions [1][1]. 2. **Precious Metals Performance**: - Gold and precious metals showed the strongest performance, with notable increases in stock prices: Tongguan Gold +12%, Chifeng Gold +7%, Zijin Mining International +6%, and China National Gold +6% [1][1]. - Key drivers include geopolitical risks, gold price recovery, central bank purchases, and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][1]. 3. **Energy Metals**: Lithium stocks also performed well, with Ganfeng Lithium +8% and Tianqi Lithium +3%, driven by inventory depletion and positive demand expectations [1][1]. 4. **Base Metals**: Copper and aluminum stocks followed suit, with increases in companies like Minmetals Resources +6% and Jiangxi Copper +4%, supported by easing tariff disturbances and economic recovery expectations [1][1]. Important Developments 1. **U.S. Tariff Policy Changes**: - On February 20, 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against previous tariffs imposed by Trump, affecting approximately $170 billion in tariffs [1][1]. - A new temporary global tariff of 15% was introduced, effective February 24, 2023, which is expected to have a neutral impact on precious metals but a favorable effect on industrial metals [1][1]. 2. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The U.S.-Iran situation escalated, with potential sanctions and military actions discussed, which could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][1]. 3. **Copper Supply Adjustments**: Major mining companies like Glencore and Anglo American have revised their production guidance downward due to operational challenges, leading to a projected supply growth rate of only 2% for 2026 [4][4]. 4. **Lithium Demand Trends**: Lithium demand is expected to rise, with significant inventory reductions reported and new supply agreements indicating a tightening market [5][5]. Additional Noteworthy Information 1. **Aluminum Industry Updates**: - The Mozal aluminum plant is set to cease operations on March 15, 2026, which could significantly impact supply [6][6]. - Century Aluminum's Iceland plant is expected to resume operations ahead of schedule, potentially reducing projected production shortfalls for 2026 [7][7]. 2. **SPDR Gold Holdings**: SPDR gold holdings increased during the holiday period, reflecting a growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid mixed economic data from the U.S. [5][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current trends and future outlook for the non-ferrous metal industry.

Group 1 - The current competition in artificial intelligence is drawing the United States into a "new cold war" over global dominance, with critical minerals becoming a central battleground [2] - The Trump administration has launched the "Project Vault" reserve plan aimed at securing key elements for national security, highlighting the geopolitical tensions surrounding mineral reserves in regions like Venezuela and Greenland [2] - Experts from Wells Fargo emphasize that AI is a competition that the West must win, as technological superiority directly influences global leadership [2] Group 2 - The struggle for critical minerals is reshaping geopolitical dynamics and investment logic, with Morgan Stanley projecting gold prices to reach $6,300 by the end of the year [3] - The price of paper gold in China is currently around 1,116 RMB per gram, reflecting a rebound trend, with technical indicators suggesting a short-term bullish momentum [4] - Global central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk aversion are supporting a medium to long-term bullish trend for gold, despite short-term resistance at the $5,000 mark [4]

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with a strong rebound observed in precious metals and a recovery in coal prices [2][6]. Key Highlights - Silver futures surged by 11% today, while all precious metals experienced a significant rebound [3][4]. - PVC saw a massive increase in open interest, exceeding 100,000 contracts, indicating strong buying interest [3][8]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including the downing of a drone and increased military readiness, has heightened risk aversion in the market [6][16]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, discussions regarding nuclear negotiations are set to take place on Friday [7]. Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw substantial gains, with gold rising by 7.29% and silver by 11.22% [15]. - Coal futures also experienced a rise, with coking coal increasing by 3.6% to 1,209 CNY/ton, marking a three-week high [16]. Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in precious metals is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market corrections after previous declines [15][16]. - The focus remains on upcoming non-farm payroll data and ongoing geopolitical developments, which may sustain high volatility in the market [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of methanol at ports decreased by 60,000 tons, while PVC's open interest indicates a strong bottom-fishing sentiment [8][17]. - The palm oil inventory in Malaysia ended a ten-month increase, expected to drop to 2.91 million tons [9]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high volatility and wide fluctuations due to the dual impact of risk aversion and policy expectations [16]. - The sentiment in the double焦 (coking coal) futures market is influenced more by funds and emotions rather than fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [17].