Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and continuing a trend of cuts from 2024 [1] - The decision to cut rates is influenced by significant political pressure and concerns about the labor market, shifting the Fed's focus from "containing inflation" to "boosting employment" [1][5] - The internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding future rate cuts is evident, with some members advocating for further cuts while others remain cautious [2][5] Group 2 - The Fed's rate cut is expected to lead to some capital outflow, prompting other countries to manage the impact on their financial markets [6] - The anticipated decline in the dollar index may alleviate some pressure on other foreign exchange markets, although the effect is limited due to the current higher target range [6] - The appointment of a close ally of President Trump to the FOMC raises concerns about the Fed's independence, as political pressures may influence its decision-making [7][10] Group 3 - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence and reiterated the dual mandate of controlling inflation and stabilizing employment [10][12] - The relationship between the White House and the Fed is characterized by a "fight without breaking," indicating ongoing tensions but a level of compromise [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, with expectations for two more cuts within the year [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 in favor of the 25 basis point cut, with Stephen Milan being the sole dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [1] - The decision reflects a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment, as indicated by the removal of previous statements about a robust labor market [5][8] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly, with increased risks to employment, prompting predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts in October and December [2][3] - The median forecast from the "dot plot" suggests a total reduction of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, bringing the rate down to approximately 3.5% to 3.75% [5][8] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose, but later retreated, while the dollar strengthened and gold prices fell [15][16] - Analysts express mixed views on the market's future, with some warning of potential bubbles and others seeing opportunities in gold as a hedge against a weakening dollar [16][21] Employment and Inflation Dynamics - The Fed's acknowledgment of slowing job growth and rising unemployment signals a delicate balance between stabilizing prices and ensuring full employment [8][10] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast has been adjusted upward to 2.6%, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [8] Political Context - The appointment of Stephen Milan, a former economic advisor to President Trump, raises questions about the Fed's independence, although Chairman Powell insists that decisions are based solely on data [13][14] - The internal divisions within the Fed regarding future rate cuts reflect a complex economic outlook influenced by labor supply changes and government policy uncertainties [14][21]

Group 1 - The "100-Day Sprint" employment initiative for 2025 college graduates was launched at Shanghai Second Industrial University, aiming to support job-seeking graduates through a series of employment guarantee activities [1] - The event included a specialized job fair and was attended by key officials, including Shanghai's Vice Mayor, highlighting the government's commitment to stabilizing and ensuring employment [1][3] - The initiative features the "One-Stop Service" policy for graduates, which aims to streamline the job application process [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Lianjia, in collaboration with Beike, provided on-site rental consultation services during the job fair, addressing graduates' housing needs alongside employment opportunities [3][5] - The job fair is part of a larger effort to connect companies with graduates during a critical job-seeking period, emphasizing the importance of housing stability for new graduates starting their careers [5] - Lianjia has previously conducted nine rental service events across 60 universities, distributing 600 copies of a rental guide to assist graduates [7] Group 3 - The "New Youth 'Heart' Plan" was launched to alleviate rental challenges for graduates, offering services such as zero deposit, monthly payments, and hassle-free lease transfers [7] - Lianjia's "Five Assurances" service promises a worry-free rental experience, including no-reason contract termination within three days and guaranteed refunds of deposits [9] - As of May 2025, Lianjia has allocated 1.55 billion yuan in assurance funds to protect transaction safety for over 125,000 deals [9] Group 4 - The rental environment is crucial for young professionals, providing a supportive space as they pursue their careers in the city [10] - The company aims to enhance rental services tailored to graduates' needs, contributing to the development of a standardized and professional long-term rental market [10]

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1] - The interbank market showed slight fluctuations in repo rates, with overnight rates around 1.4% and a rise in rates for overnight borrowing against credit bonds to 1.6% [3] - The central bank's liquidity support remains strong, with no liquidity gap expected in June, although fluctuations may occur due to fiscal spending at month-end [3] Interest Rate Adjustments - The latest LPR was set at 3% for 1-year loans and 3.5% for loans over 5 years, marking a decrease of 10 basis points, the first reduction since October of the previous year [5] - Major state-owned banks have begun to lower deposit rates, with reductions ranging from 5 to 25 basis points, and some large-denomination deposit rates dropping by up to 35 basis points [5][6] - The recent interest rate cuts are seen as a continuation of the easing policy, with expectations that the next rate cut window may not occur until at least the third quarter [6] Economic Outlook and Policy Measures - The central bank emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing for the real economy and maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates [7] - The government is focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations while promoting consumption and supporting key sectors such as technology innovation and foreign trade [7] - A recent monetary policy execution report highlighted the importance of boosting consumption to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth, while also addressing the balance of supply and demand in the economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the cautious stance of financial institutions and the impact of international trade policies on various commodities and sectors [1][4][5]. Domestic News - The Chinese government encourages U.S. financial institutions to deepen cooperation in the capital market [1]. - State-owned enterprises reported total revenue of 262,755 billion yuan from January to April, with a profit of 13,491.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [5]. International News - The European Commission aims to reduce carbon emissions by 54% by 2030, slightly below its 55% target, and plans to propose a 90% reduction by 2040 despite opposition from member states [4]. Commodity Insights Oil - SC night trading rose by 0.84%, with OPEC and its allies planning to hold meetings to discuss production levels, including a potential increase of 41.1 million barrels per day [2][10]. Coal and Coke - Short-term expectations for thermal coal prices are stable, but a downward trend is anticipated afterward. Coke supply is slightly reduced, but high inventory levels hinder market sentiment [3][24]. Agricultural Products - Oilseed prices are weak due to increased domestic soybean supply and expectations of rising inventories. Palm oil production is also increasing, leading to higher stock levels [3][25]. Metals - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to stable domestic demand and external factors such as U.S. trade negotiations. Zinc prices are also expected to be volatile, supported by improving domestic automotive and construction sectors [15][17]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has weakened, with expectations of further declines in freight rates due to increased capacity and lower demand [29].