北京时间18日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储 2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后继续降息。看似"没有意外"、"符合市场预期"的降息背后，充斥的是混乱和各方博弈。 由于承受的政治压力显著增大，美联储本次降息的理由、幅度，未来会否继续降息以及美联储独立性等受到广泛关注。这是美联储的专业理性操作吗？此次 降息将对美国与全球经济走势产生哪些影响？ "抗通胀"VS."保就业" 美联储陷入两难境地？ 在市场看来，美国就业市场的疲软表现成为美联储本次降息的首要考量。中国世贸组织研究会常务理事、全球化智库高级研究员何伟文分析认为： 考虑到美国不断上涨的物价，现在并不是美联储降息的好时机，但考虑到就业形势加剧恶化的现实，美联储只能"两害相权取其轻"，这也意味着美联储的政 策重心从"抑制通胀"转向"提振就业"。 问题的关键在于美国政府的关税政策导致了就业市场的低迷，而非美联储的政策。过度的货币宽松非但无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使美国经济 陷入"轻度滞胀"的状态。 英国广播公司网站报道截图 "鸽派行动" ...

当地时间9月17日下午，北京时间今天（9月18日）凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会货币政策会议纪要显示， 美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以 来的首次降息，预计年内还将降息两次。联邦公开市场委员会以11比1的投票结果通过降息25个基点的 决定。刚刚就职的美联储理事、目前仍担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席的斯蒂芬·米兰是唯一持不同意见 者，他主张降息50个基点。在今年7月货币政策会议上不同意维持利率不变的两位理事米歇尔·鲍曼和克 里斯托弗·沃勒对本次会议批准的降息幅度表示满意。 美联储主席鲍威尔当天在回答记者提问时，再次强调了美联储的独立性。美国总统特朗普自今年1月上 任以来持续施压美联储降息，并提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事。鲍威尔还 证实，美联储正在推行10%的减员计划，涵盖理事会及所有储备银行——完成后美联储雇员规模将基本 回归十年前水平。 在备受市场瞩目的9月议息会议上，美联储的最新决策声明透露出一个明确信号：对就业放缓的担忧明 显上升。 国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛向《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）表示，9月的 ...

Group 1 - The "100-Day Sprint" employment initiative for 2025 college graduates was launched at Shanghai Second Industrial University, aiming to support job-seeking graduates through a series of employment guarantee activities [1] - The event included a specialized job fair and was attended by key officials, including Shanghai's Vice Mayor, highlighting the government's commitment to stabilizing and ensuring employment [1][3] - The initiative features the "One-Stop Service" policy for graduates, which aims to streamline the job application process [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Lianjia, in collaboration with Beike, provided on-site rental consultation services during the job fair, addressing graduates' housing needs alongside employment opportunities [3][5] - The job fair is part of a larger effort to connect companies with graduates during a critical job-seeking period, emphasizing the importance of housing stability for new graduates starting their careers [5] - Lianjia has previously conducted nine rental service events across 60 universities, distributing 600 copies of a rental guide to assist graduates [7] Group 3 - The "New Youth 'Heart' Plan" was launched to alleviate rental challenges for graduates, offering services such as zero deposit, monthly payments, and hassle-free lease transfers [7] - Lianjia's "Five Assurances" service promises a worry-free rental experience, including no-reason contract termination within three days and guaranteed refunds of deposits [9] - As of May 2025, Lianjia has allocated 1.55 billion yuan in assurance funds to protect transaction safety for over 125,000 deals [9] Group 4 - The rental environment is crucial for young professionals, providing a supportive space as they pursue their careers in the city [10] - The company aims to enhance rental services tailored to graduates' needs, contributing to the development of a standardized and professional long-term rental market [10]

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1] - The interbank market showed slight fluctuations in repo rates, with overnight rates around 1.4% and a rise in rates for overnight borrowing against credit bonds to 1.6% [3] - The central bank's liquidity support remains strong, with no liquidity gap expected in June, although fluctuations may occur due to fiscal spending at month-end [3] Interest Rate Adjustments - The latest LPR was set at 3% for 1-year loans and 3.5% for loans over 5 years, marking a decrease of 10 basis points, the first reduction since October of the previous year [5] - Major state-owned banks have begun to lower deposit rates, with reductions ranging from 5 to 25 basis points, and some large-denomination deposit rates dropping by up to 35 basis points [5][6] - The recent interest rate cuts are seen as a continuation of the easing policy, with expectations that the next rate cut window may not occur until at least the third quarter [6] Economic Outlook and Policy Measures - The central bank emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing for the real economy and maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates [7] - The government is focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations while promoting consumption and supporting key sectors such as technology innovation and foreign trade [7] - A recent monetary policy execution report highlighted the importance of boosting consumption to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth, while also addressing the balance of supply and demand in the economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the cautious stance of financial institutions and the impact of international trade policies on various commodities and sectors [1][4][5]. Domestic News - The Chinese government encourages U.S. financial institutions to deepen cooperation in the capital market [1]. - State-owned enterprises reported total revenue of 262,755 billion yuan from January to April, with a profit of 13,491.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [5]. International News - The European Commission aims to reduce carbon emissions by 54% by 2030, slightly below its 55% target, and plans to propose a 90% reduction by 2040 despite opposition from member states [4]. Commodity Insights Oil - SC night trading rose by 0.84%, with OPEC and its allies planning to hold meetings to discuss production levels, including a potential increase of 41.1 million barrels per day [2][10]. Coal and Coke - Short-term expectations for thermal coal prices are stable, but a downward trend is anticipated afterward. Coke supply is slightly reduced, but high inventory levels hinder market sentiment [3][24]. Agricultural Products - Oilseed prices are weak due to increased domestic soybean supply and expectations of rising inventories. Palm oil production is also increasing, leading to higher stock levels [3][25]. Metals - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to stable domestic demand and external factors such as U.S. trade negotiations. Zinc prices are also expected to be volatile, supported by improving domestic automotive and construction sectors [15][17]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has weakened, with expectations of further declines in freight rates due to increased capacity and lower demand [29].