智通财经APP获悉，周二，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国经济正面临"滞胀式"挑战，经济增长和就业市 场出现明显疲软，而通胀仍处于高位。这种"上下两难"的局面使货币政策制定者面临艰难抉择。 鲍威尔指出："短期内通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，这是一个极具挑战性的局面。双向风险 意味着没有任何一条道路是无风险的。" 经济增长放缓与通胀压力并存 鲍威尔表示，最新数据显示，美国经济增速正在放缓，失业率虽然仍处低位，但已出现轻微上升。同 时，住房市场依旧疲软，消费者支出出现降温迹象，而通胀水平仍高于美联储2%的目标。这种局面被 RSM US首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas称为"轻度滞胀(stagflation-lite)"，即经济增长疲软但物价依然高企。 鲍威尔还强调，近期联邦政策的变化正在深刻重塑美国经济结构，包括贸易、移民、财政、监管以及地 缘政治方面。他警告称："这些政策仍在不断演变，其长期影响需要时间才能完全显现。" 首次降息为"风险管理式"操作 受鲍威尔讲话影响，美国国债收益率五日来首次回落，10年期国债收益率降至4.11%。当天，美国财政 部两年期国债拍卖结果显示需求强劲，本周还将陆续发行五年期和七年 ...

北京时间18日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储 2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后继续降息。看似"没有意外"、"符合市场预期"的降息背后，充斥的是混乱和各方博弈。 由于承受的政治压力显著增大，美联储本次降息的理由、幅度，未来会否继续降息以及美联储独立性等受到广泛关注。这是美联储的专业理性操作吗？此次 降息将对美国与全球经济走势产生哪些影响？ "抗通胀"VS."保就业" 美联储陷入两难境地？ 在市场看来，美国就业市场的疲软表现成为美联储本次降息的首要考量。中国世贸组织研究会常务理事、全球化智库高级研究员何伟文分析认为： 考虑到美国不断上涨的物价，现在并不是美联储降息的好时机，但考虑到就业形势加剧恶化的现实，美联储只能"两害相权取其轻"，这也意味着美联储的政 策重心从"抑制通胀"转向"提振就业"。 问题的关键在于美国政府的关税政策导致了就业市场的低迷，而非美联储的政策。过度的货币宽松非但无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使美国经济 陷入"轻度滞胀"的状态。 英国广播公司网站报道截图 "鸽派行动" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that global liquidity is driving a "bull market" in A-shares and overseas markets, unaffected by data and policy uncertainties [1] - Following domestic interest rate cuts, long-term rates are low and liquidity is ample, contributing to a liquidity-driven bull market [1] - There is a growing interest in China globally, with institutions and residents reallocating from fixed-income assets to equity or equity-related assets since July [1] Group 2 - The relationship between China and the U.S. is experiencing fluctuations, with a slight potential for tariff and trade barrier upgrades, but a return to the tense state of April is unlikely [1] - The U.S. economy is expected to soften in the second half of the year, with employment and consumption declining, leading to a potential mild stagflation in the coming months [1] - Major U.S. companies benefiting from AI are showing strong performance, and investor expectations are leaning towards significant future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3 - Macro narratives regarding China are largely positive, emphasizing anti-involution, industrial innovation, and the resilience of entrepreneurs [1] - Macro deflationary pressures are expected to persist at least until the first half of next year, with GDP deflator indices showing -1% for the first half of this year and an estimated -0.9% for the second half [1] - The feasibility of achieving "anti-deflation" remains uncertain, involving factors such as PPI, core CPI, corporate profits, wage employment, and consumption ratios [1] Group 4 - Demand-side rebalancing and supply-side clearing are underway, with a phased investment of 138 billion in old-for-new initiatives and subsidies in social security and livelihood sectors [1] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in late October may address three fundamental changes, including reducing redundant construction, tax and fiscal system reforms, and transforming local government performance assessments [1] - The current market is driven by improved liquidity and macro narratives, but the ultimate outcome will depend on the fundamentals, specifically the ability to break deflation and improve corporate profitability [1]

Group 1 - FSMOne's assistant manager predicts that the impact of the trade war is manageable under macro policy responses, allowing the Chinese stock market to better withstand tariff shocks [1] - The target for the Hang Seng Index in 2025 is projected to be 24,500 points based on an 11x price-to-earnings ratio, while the MSCI China Index is expected to reach 69 based on a 10x target P/E ratio [1] - The demand and spending for cloud computing and data centers are expected to rise across various industries, driven by the surge in Chinese tech and AI stocks, leading to sustained profit growth for related companies [1] Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate may return to a high level of around 4%, with price increases from tariffs expected to reflect in the third or fourth quarter of this year [2] - There is upward pressure on long-term bond yields, and investors are advised to consider ultra-short-term U.S. Treasury bonds or high-quality short to medium-term corporate bonds [2] - Preference is given to investment-grade bonds or companies that are more defensive under the tariff war, while caution is advised regarding cyclical industries and those heavily impacted by trade or geopolitical issues [2]