当地时间11月19日，美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪 要。会议纪要显示，决策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 该纪要凸显美联储内部就通胀与失业哪一方对美国经济构成更大威胁存在巨大分歧，这也加大了12月利 率决策的不确定性。 中间派（包括鲍威尔、副主席杰斐逊等）则倾向观望，采取更耐心的方式进行政策调整。 传统货币政策框架要求"对症下药"——通过加息抑通胀、降息稳就业。但当前经济同时面临两方面压 力，使美联储陷入两难。激进加息可能加剧就业市场恶化，过早宽松或导致通胀再度反弹。这种"既要 抗通胀、又要保就业"的困境，被经济学家称为"轻度滞胀"。 根据最新公布的会议纪要，美联储决策层对通胀威胁的评估出现明显分化。部分与会者认为，剔除关税 因素后，当前通胀水平已接近政策目标。但更多委员强调，整体通胀率已持续超标运行，且缺乏明确证 据显示能在短期内可持续地回落至2%的目标区间。 值得关注的是，在10月底的议息会议上，尽管美联储做出了连续第二次降息25个基点的决定，但内部出 现双重异议：一位委员主张更大幅度的50个基点降息，另一位则坚持维持利率不变。这是自2019年以来 ...

本报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 "尽管在'盲目飞行'，美联储最终宣布再次降息。"英国广播公司30日报道称，美联储当地时间周三宣 布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后 再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 美联储"在雾中驾驶" 据报道，这是美联储今年第二次下调利率，旨在防止失业率进一步飙升。同时， 这一利率也是近3年来的最低水平。受此影响，美国国债收益率和美元迅速上扬。 在决议公布前，市场普遍预期12月将迎来第三次连续降息。但在美联储主席鲍威尔发言后，投资者迅速 下调了预期。受鲍威尔对12月降息不确定表述的影响，美股当天盘中跳水，收盘仅剩纳指小幅上涨。越 来越多的投资者认为，美联储可能采取更为谨慎的立场，因为经济正显现"轻度滞胀"的迹象——通胀高 企与就业乏力并存。 然而对于这一决议，美联储内部仍存在明显分歧。"这次降息暴露出决策层在'应该多大程度继续刺激经 济'问题上的深刻分歧。"美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道称，这一争论使前路更加难以预判。鲍威尔 在记者会上承认，在通胀顽固与就业疲软的双重压力下，19名政策制定者对未来利率路径的意见出 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁】"尽管在'盲目飞行'，美联储最终宣布再次降息。"英国广播公司30 日报道称，美联储当地时间周三宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4%之间。这是 美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 美联储 " 在雾中驾驶 " 据报道，这是美联储今年第二次下调利率，旨在防止失业率进一步飙升。同时，这一利率也是近3年来 的最低水平。受此影响，美国国债收益率和美元迅速上扬。 在决议公布前，市场普遍预期12月将迎来第三次连续降息。但在美联储主席鲍威尔发言后，投资者迅速 下调了预期。受鲍威尔对12月降息不确定表述的影响，美股当天盘中跳水，收盘仅剩纳指小幅上涨。越 来越多的投资者认为，美联储可能采取更为谨慎的立场，因为经济正显现"轻度滞胀"的迹象——通胀高 企与就业乏力并存。 然而对于这一决议，美联储内部仍存在明显分歧。"这次降息暴露出决策层在'应该多大程度继续刺激经 济'问题上的深刻分歧。"美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道称，这一争论使前路更加难以预判。鲍威尔 在记者会上承认，在通胀顽固与就业疲软的双重压力下，19名政策制定者对未来利率 ...

Group 1 - The report outlines a global economy entering a phase of "mild stagflation" and "high uncertainty," with central banks struggling to balance weak growth, persistent inflation, and large fiscal deficits [2][3] - Trade war costs are primarily borne by exporters, with the U.S. consumers expected to feel the impact of tariffs, which could raise inflation by +0.6 percentage points by mid-2026 [3] - Global trade volume growth is projected to slow significantly from +2% in 2025 to +0.6% in 2026, indicating a challenging environment for international commerce [3] Group 2 - The report highlights the potential for long-term interest rates to rise due to high fiscal deficits, with the U.S. expected to see a GDP drag of approximately -0.3% from tariffs [3][4] - The European defense spending is anticipated to increase significantly in 2026-2027, with a proposed investment of €800 billion over four years, which could boost GDP growth by about +0.2 percentage points [4][5] - Companies are facing high financing costs, with a projected increase in global corporate bankruptcies by +6% in 2025 and +4% in 2026, peaking around 2027 [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that while there is no current bubble, the AI hype has been fully priced in, with U.S. stock valuations remaining high but supported by strong long-term earnings growth [5] - Emerging markets, excluding China, are in an expansion cycle, with growth expectations exceeding forecasts, although certain countries like Argentina and Brazil are highlighted as needing close monitoring [5] - The potential for a trade recession is assessed at a 45% probability, driven by U.S. tariff escalations impacting global growth and inflation [5]

Core Insights - The report outlines a complex economic landscape characterized by slow growth, persistent inflation, and significant policy dilemmas, with key risks including geopolitical tensions and the impact of AI on markets [2][3] Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is entering a phase of "mild stagflation" with weak growth projected at +2.7% in 2025 and +2.5% in 2026, while inflation remains high at 3.9% and 3.5% respectively [2] - Global trade growth is expected to slow significantly from +2% in 2025 to +0.6% in 2026 [2] Regional Analysis - In the US and UK, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly high, with US inflation projected to exceed targets through 2027 [2] - The Eurozone is nearing the ECB's 2% inflation target, with expectations of stability [2] Consumer Behavior - High interest rates and prices are suppressing consumer confidence, leading to a forecast of weak consumption recovery [2] Interest Rate Projections - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by only 75 basis points by mid-2026, with terminal rates between 3.25% and 3.50% [2] - The ECB has ended its rate hike cycle, while the Bank of England is anticipated to ease further, reducing rates to 3.0% by 2027 [2] Debt and Fiscal Challenges - Global corporate bankruptcies are projected to increase by 6% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, peaking around 2027 [4] - The report highlights a significant rise in long-term yields due to high fiscal deficits and substantial debt issuance [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the US capital market continues to attract strong foreign investment despite pressures for de-dollarization [4] - The valuation of US equities remains high with a P/E ratio of 23x, but strong long-term earnings growth supports a sustainable PEG ratio of 1.4x [4] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets, excluding China, are in an expansion phase with growth exceeding expectations, although certain countries like Argentina and Brazil are flagged for potential risks [4] - China's growth is projected at +4.8% in 2025, slowing to +4.2% in 2026, facing challenges from weak domestic demand and real estate downturns [4]

Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is facing "stagflation-like" challenges with noticeable weakness in economic growth and the job market, while inflation remains high [1][2] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in economic growth, a slight increase in unemployment, and a cooling consumer spending environment, despite inflation levels exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve recently implemented its first interest rate cut since 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, described as a "risk management" operation [1][2] - The latest dot plot suggests three potential rate cuts in 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of two, although there is significant internal division among Fed officials regarding the pace of rate cuts [1][2] Labor Market and Immigration - The labor supply and demand in the U.S. are weakening, exacerbated by tightened immigration policies under the Trump administration, leading to increased job market challenges [2] - There are growing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the need for aggressive rate cuts to prevent falling behind economic conditions [2] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.11%, while the stock market experienced declines, particularly in technology stocks [3][4] - Market expectations indicate a potential total rate cut of approximately 43 basis points by year-end, with some investors speculating on a possible 50 basis point cut in a future meeting [3][4] Financial Stability - Powell noted that while U.S. stock market valuations appear relatively high, there are currently no significant signs of increased financial stability risks [3] - Upcoming key economic data, including GDP and core PCE, may further influence market volatility and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and continuing a trend of cuts from 2024 [1] - The decision to cut rates is influenced by significant political pressure and concerns about the labor market, shifting the Fed's focus from "containing inflation" to "boosting employment" [1][5] - The internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding future rate cuts is evident, with some members advocating for further cuts while others remain cautious [2][5] Group 2 - The Fed's rate cut is expected to lead to some capital outflow, prompting other countries to manage the impact on their financial markets [6] - The anticipated decline in the dollar index may alleviate some pressure on other foreign exchange markets, although the effect is limited due to the current higher target range [6] - The appointment of a close ally of President Trump to the FOMC raises concerns about the Fed's independence, as political pressures may influence its decision-making [7][10] Group 3 - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence and reiterated the dual mandate of controlling inflation and stabilizing employment [10][12] - The relationship between the White House and the Fed is characterized by a "fight without breaking," indicating ongoing tensions but a level of compromise [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that global liquidity is driving a "bull market" in A-shares and overseas markets, unaffected by data and policy uncertainties [1] - Following domestic interest rate cuts, long-term rates are low and liquidity is ample, contributing to a liquidity-driven bull market [1] - There is a growing interest in China globally, with institutions and residents reallocating from fixed-income assets to equity or equity-related assets since July [1] Group 2 - The relationship between China and the U.S. is experiencing fluctuations, with a slight potential for tariff and trade barrier upgrades, but a return to the tense state of April is unlikely [1] - The U.S. economy is expected to soften in the second half of the year, with employment and consumption declining, leading to a potential mild stagflation in the coming months [1] - Major U.S. companies benefiting from AI are showing strong performance, and investor expectations are leaning towards significant future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3 - Macro narratives regarding China are largely positive, emphasizing anti-involution, industrial innovation, and the resilience of entrepreneurs [1] - Macro deflationary pressures are expected to persist at least until the first half of next year, with GDP deflator indices showing -1% for the first half of this year and an estimated -0.9% for the second half [1] - The feasibility of achieving "anti-deflation" remains uncertain, involving factors such as PPI, core CPI, corporate profits, wage employment, and consumption ratios [1] Group 4 - Demand-side rebalancing and supply-side clearing are underway, with a phased investment of 138 billion in old-for-new initiatives and subsidies in social security and livelihood sectors [1] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in late October may address three fundamental changes, including reducing redundant construction, tax and fiscal system reforms, and transforming local government performance assessments [1] - The current market is driven by improved liquidity and macro narratives, but the ultimate outcome will depend on the fundamentals, specifically the ability to break deflation and improve corporate profitability [1]

Group 1 - FSMOne's assistant manager predicts that the impact of the trade war is manageable under macro policy responses, allowing the Chinese stock market to better withstand tariff shocks [1] - The target for the Hang Seng Index in 2025 is projected to be 24,500 points based on an 11x price-to-earnings ratio, while the MSCI China Index is expected to reach 69 based on a 10x target P/E ratio [1] - The demand and spending for cloud computing and data centers are expected to rise across various industries, driven by the surge in Chinese tech and AI stocks, leading to sustained profit growth for related companies [1] Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate may return to a high level of around 4%, with price increases from tariffs expected to reflect in the third or fourth quarter of this year [2] - There is upward pressure on long-term bond yields, and investors are advised to consider ultra-short-term U.S. Treasury bonds or high-quality short to medium-term corporate bonds [2] - Preference is given to investment-grade bonds or companies that are more defensive under the tariff war, while caution is advised regarding cyclical industries and those heavily impacted by trade or geopolitical issues [2]