Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase slightly net - withdrew funds. From December 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds significantly increased compared with the previous week. The maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) showed a sideways trend overall, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. - Looking forward to early 2026, there are many factors disturbing the capital market. However, the key lies in the central bank's attitude towards liquidity injection. It is expected that the central bank will support the capital market in early 2026, and measures such as "dual cuts" or active liquidity injection through open - market operations are expected in the first quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Capital Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 348 billion yuan, treasury cash fixed - deposit had a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and medium - term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 1000 billion yuan. From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases will mature at 6227 billion yuan, with 4701 billion yuan maturing on January 4, 2026. In January 2026, 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases will mature at 11000 billion yuan and 6000 billion yuan respectively, and MLF will mature at 2000 billion yuan [6]. - **Interest Rates**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.26% and 1.35% respectively, down 1.0 basis points and up 0.5 basis points compared with December 15 - 19, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.52% respectively, up 0.3 basis points and up 0.6 basis points compared with December 15 - 19, 2025 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From December 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 3667 billion yuan, an increase of about 3506 billion yuan compared with December 15 - 21, 2025. The net financing of national bonds was about 3741 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds was about - 74 billion yuan. From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 138 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Maturity Yield**: As of December 26, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs were 1.6150% and 1.5950% respectively, up 0.2 basis points and basically unchanged compared with December 19, 2025; the maturity yield of 1Y NCDs was 1.6350%, basically unchanged compared with December 19, 2025 [9]. - **Net Financing**: From December 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 3219 billion yuan. From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the maturity repayment of NCDs is expected to be 2949 billion yuan. The maturity scale of NCDs in January 2026 is about 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan month - on - month and an increase of 0.93 trillion yuan year - on - year [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 108.18%, compared with 107.92% from December 15 - 19, 2025 [10]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: On December 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.80 years, up 0.10 years week - on - week, at the 89.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.74 years, up 0.20 years week - on - week, at the 44.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].

Report Highlights - 2025 Dec 15 - 19, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a small net withdrawal of funds. From Dec 15 - 21, the net payment scale of government bonds increased compared with the previous week, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) declined, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected net payment of government bonds is 30.66 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs is about 88.22 billion yuan. On Dec 19, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.20 years and increased by 0.04 years week - on - week respectively [2]. Core Viewpoints - The central bank carried out a small - scale net withdrawal of reverse repurchase funds and restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase to deal with the cross - year funds. The decline in DR001 weighted average interest rate was supported by year - end fiscal expenditures, and the decline in bond yields was related to the pricing of loose funds. The net financing scale of government bonds increased slightly, and the net payment of government bonds will have a greater impact on the capital side in the future. Most of the maturity yields of inter - bank CDs declined, and the net financing amount remained negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term pure bond funds changed in different directions [6][7][8]. Summary by Section Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From Dec 15 - 19, the central bank's 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases had a net withdrawal of 1.1 billion yuan. From Dec 22 - 26, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 45.75 billion yuan, medium - term lending facilities (MLF) worth 30 billion yuan, and treasury cash fixed deposits worth 12 billion yuan will mature [6]. - **Fund Interest Rates**: From Dec 15 - 19, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.27% and 1.35% respectively, down 1.5 and 1.0 basis points compared with Dec 8 - 12; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.44% and 1.51% respectively, down 1.1 and up 1.4 basis points compared with Dec 8 - 12. The continuous decline of DR001 was supported by fiscal expenditures, and the decline of bond yields on Dec 18 and 19 might be due to the lagged pricing of loose funds [7]. - **Government Bond Financing**: From Dec 15 - 21, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 1.606 billion yuan, an increase of about 130 million yuan compared with Dec 8 - 14. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected net payment scale of government bonds is 30.66 billion yuan, and the impact on the capital side will increase [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of Dec 19, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M inter - bank CDs were 1.6125% and 1.5950% respectively, down 0.2 and 2.0 basis points compared with Dec 12; the 1Y maturity yield was 1.6350%, down 2.5 basis points compared with Dec 12. The decline was due to previous adjustments, expectations of interest rate cuts in early 2026, and the pricing of continuous loose funds [8]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From Dec 15 - 21, the net financing amount of inter - bank CDs was about - 6.71 billion yuan. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected maturity repayment amount is 88.22 billion yuan, and the scale of rolling over at maturity decreased marginally but remained at a high level [8]. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From Dec 15 - 19, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.92%, higher than 107.54% in Dec 8 - 12 [9]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: On Dec 19, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.20 years week - on - week to 4.71 years, at the 87.3% quantile since early 2022; the median duration of short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.04 years week - on - week to 1.54 years, at the 22.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From November 17 to 21, 2025, the central bank conducted net 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits mature. The government bond net payment scale decreased slightly in the week of November 17 - 23 compared to the previous week. The yield of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) remained stable overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was basically stable. The estimated median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds decreased by 0.60 years and 0.20 years respectively on a weekly basis as of November 21, 2025 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 167.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 112.2 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 55.4 billion yuan, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured. From November 24 to 28, 112.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature, 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will be operated on the 24th, and 90 billion yuan of medium - term lending facilities (MLF) will mature on the 25th [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.43% and 1.49% respectively, up 0.9 and 1.9 basis points compared to November 10 - 14. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.50% and 1.52% respectively, up 0.8 and 1.5 basis points compared to November 10 - 14. The funding rate was high at the beginning of the week and then decreased, mainly due to factors such as high government bond net payment, tax payments, and frozen funds from new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. Towards the end of November, the impact of government bond payments on the funding situation is expected to be low, but the impact of cross - quarter funding needs attention [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From November 17 to 23, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.057 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1.42 billion yuan compared to November 10 - 16. The net financing of treasury bonds was about 29.533 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 11.524 billion yuan. From November 24 to 30, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 23.38 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing at about - 5.61 billion yuan and local government bond net financing at about 28.99 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield Stability**: As of November 21, 2025, the maturing yields of 1 - month and 3 - month ICDs were 1.4900% and 1.5735% respectively, down 0.5 and 0.2 basis points compared to November 14. The 1 - year ICD maturing yield remained unchanged at 1.6350% compared to November 14 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From November 17 to 23, 2025, the net financing of ICDs was about - 37.32 billion yuan, compared to about - 4.27 billion yuan in the week of November 10 - 16. Although the net financing was negative, the actual issuance scale was not low due to the high maturing scale. The estimated maturing repayment of ICDs from November 24 to 30 is 80.2 billion yuan, down from 90.7 billion yuan in the previous week, indicating a reduced pressure on roll - over [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the estimated average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.15%, compared to 107.16% in the week of November 10 - 14. The estimated leverage ratios on November 21 and November 14 were about 107.31% and 107.15% respectively [9]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.23 years, down 0.60 years on a weekly basis, at the 79.8% percentile since early 2022. The estimated median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.63 years, down 0.20 years on a weekly basis, at the 30.0% percentile since early 2022 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through short - term reverse repurchases and carried out a 700 billion yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase on November 5. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the 1M maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased while the 3M - 1Y yields were relatively stable, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market slightly increased. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 369.2 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 751.8 billion yuan. On November 7, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.06 years and 0.09 years respectively on a weekly basis [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan. On November 5, a 700 billion yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase was carried out, and the 3M outright reverse repurchase was renewed at the same amount this month [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.37% respectively, down 7.3 and 7.8 basis points compared to October 27 - 31. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.42% and 1.46% respectively, down 10.4 and 11.5 basis points compared to October 27 - 31. From November 3 - 6, the weighted average rate of DR001 was stable around 1.31%, and it increased marginally on November 7, possibly due to the 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase maturing on November 10 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 36.8 billion yuan, about 96.9 billion yuan less than that from October 27 - November 2. The net financing of treasury bonds was about 24.9 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 11.9 billion yuan. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 369.2 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing of about 195.9 billion yuan and local government bond net financing of about 173.3 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of November 7, 2025, the 1M and 3M maturity yields of NCDs were 1.4750% and 1.5600% respectively, up 7.0 and 0.5 basis points compared to October 31. The 1Y maturity yield was 1.6300%, up 0.2 basis points compared to October 31 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about 151 billion yuan. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 751.8 billion yuan, and the maturity renewal pressure has increased [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.73%, compared with 107.36% from October 27 - 31 [9]. - **Bond Fund Durations**: On November 7, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 5.38 years, up 0.06 years on a weekly basis, at the 96.5% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.69 years, up 0.09 years on a weekly basis, at the 99.5% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the central bank made net injections through short - term reverse repurchases, and the MLF had a net injection of 200 billion yuan. The money market faced short - term fluctuations due to tax payment periods and month - end effects. From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) declined overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds was - 38.2 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs was about 376.9 billion yuan. On October 31, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.66 years and 0.20 years respectively on a weekly basis [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In October, the total net injection of outright reverse repurchases and MLF was 600 billion yuan. The central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading. From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 120.08 billion yuan. In November, 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan of MLF will mature [4]. - Affected by tax payment periods and month - end factors, the money market had short - term and slight fluctuations, but it loosened significantly in the last two days of the month. From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.4 and 7.7 basis points respectively compared with October 20 - 24, 2025 [5]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased. From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 133.72 billion yuan, 80.5 billion yuan less than that of October 20 - 26, 2025. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds was - 38.2 billion yuan [6]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The yields of inter - bank CDs declined overall. As of October 31, 2025, the yields of 1M and 3M inter - bank CDs decreased by 9.0 and 3.5 basis points respectively compared with October 24, 2025, and the yield of 1Y inter - bank CDs decreased by 4.8 basis points [7]. - The net financing of inter - bank CDs remained positive. From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was about 17.06 billion yuan. The maturity repayment of inter - bank CDs from November 3 to November 9, 2025, is expected to be 376.9 billion yuan. The maturity scale of inter - bank CDs in November is about 2.8 trillion yuan, significantly higher than that in October (1.8 trillion yuan) [7]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.36%, compared with 107.56% from October 20 to October 24, 2025 [8]. - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate pure bond funds increased marginally. On October 31, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.66 years on a weekly basis and was at the 96.5% quantile since early 2022; the median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.20 years on a weekly basis and was at the 98.7% quantile since early 2022 [8].