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流动性和机构行为周度观察:资金面迎税期走款及政府债净缴款扰动-20251118
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 23:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From November 10 - 14, 2025, the central bank conducted net injections through short - term reverse repurchases. On November 17, an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month. From November 10 - 16, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the yield to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit fluctuated within a narrow range, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From November 17 - 23, the expected net payment of government bonds is 410.57 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit is about 907 billion yuan. On November 14, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds decreased week - on - week by 0.55 years and 0.85 years respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Fund Injections**: From November 10 - 14, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. On November 17, an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式 reverse repurchase was conducted, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month. The 12 - billion - yuan treasury cash fixed - term deposit will mature on November 20. The central bank's injection pattern is stable, which helps stabilize the market's expectation of the funds [6]. - **Fund Fluctuations and Interest Rate Changes**: From November 10 - 14, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.42% and 1.47% respectively, up 10.3 and 10.0 basis points compared to November 3 - 7. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.49% and 1.50% respectively, up 6.5 and 4.1 basis points compared to November 3 - 7. Tax payment and large - scale net payment of government bonds will affect liquidity [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From November 10 - 16, the net payment of government bonds was about 424.8 billion yuan, an increase of about 388 billion yuan compared to November 3 - 9. From November 17 - 23, the expected net payment is 410.57 billion yuan [2][7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield Fluctuations**: As of November 14, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1 - month and 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.4950% and 1.5750% respectively, up 2.0 and 1.5 basis points compared to November 7. The yield to maturity of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.6350%, up 0.5 basis points compared to November 7 [8]. - **Net Financing and Maturity Pressure**: From November 10 - 16, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 4.16 billion yuan. From November 17 - 23, the expected maturity repayment is 907 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio of the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From November 10 - 14, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.26%, lower than the 107.73% in the period from November 3 - 7 [9]. - **Duration Changes of Bond Funds**: On November 14, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.83 years, down 0.55 years week - on - week, at the 90.8% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.83 years, down 0.85 years week - on - week, at the 54.8% quantile since early 2022 [9].
流动性和机构行为周度观察:月初资金面宽松,3M买断式逆回购等量续作-20251111
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-10 23:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through short - term reverse repurchases and carried out a 700 billion yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase on November 5. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the 1M maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased while the 3M - 1Y yields were relatively stable, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market slightly increased. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 369.2 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 751.8 billion yuan. On November 7, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.06 years and 0.09 years respectively on a weekly basis [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan. On November 5, a 700 billion yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase was carried out, and the 3M outright reverse repurchase was renewed at the same amount this month [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.37% respectively, down 7.3 and 7.8 basis points compared to October 27 - 31. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.42% and 1.46% respectively, down 10.4 and 11.5 basis points compared to October 27 - 31. From November 3 - 6, the weighted average rate of DR001 was stable around 1.31%, and it increased marginally on November 7, possibly due to the 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase maturing on November 10 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 36.8 billion yuan, about 96.9 billion yuan less than that from October 27 - November 2. The net financing of treasury bonds was about 24.9 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 11.9 billion yuan. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 369.2 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing of about 195.9 billion yuan and local government bond net financing of about 173.3 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of November 7, 2025, the 1M and 3M maturity yields of NCDs were 1.4750% and 1.5600% respectively, up 7.0 and 0.5 basis points compared to October 31. The 1Y maturity yield was 1.6300%, up 0.2 basis points compared to October 31 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about 151 billion yuan. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 751.8 billion yuan, and the maturity renewal pressure has increased [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.73%, compared with 107.36% from October 27 - 31 [9]. - **Bond Fund Durations**: On November 7, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 5.38 years, up 0.06 years on a weekly basis, at the 96.5% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.69 years, up 0.09 years on a weekly basis, at the 99.5% quantile since early 2022 [9].