Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report explores investment opportunities in the Hong Kong bond market under the expansion of the "Southbound Connect." It analyzes the market conditions of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds and Dim Sum bonds, and points out potential investment opportunities based on factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, and credit risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Bond "Southbound Connect" Introduction - Launched on September 24, 2021, it allows domestic investors to invest in bonds traded in the Hong Kong bond market through a connected mechanism [9]. - Initially, it only supported spot bond trading and later gradually introduced repo trading. In 2025, measures were announced to expand trading currencies and extend trading hours [10]. - Regulatory authorities have defined the current participants and trading counterparties. The scope of participants is expected to expand to include non-bank institutions such as securities firms, insurance companies, and asset management companies [11]. II. "Southbound Connect" Investment Target Situation Hong Kong Bond Market Situation - The Hong Kong bond market consists of three main segments: Hong Kong dollar, offshore RMB, and G3 currency markets. As of the end of 2024, the outstanding amounts of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds were 195.5 billion, 173.2 billion, and 565.6 billion US dollars respectively, with G3 currency bonds dominating the market [24]. - From 2015 to 2024, the total size of the Hong Kong bond market showed a significant upward trend, reaching HK$2.83 trillion in 2024. The Exchange Fund and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government are the cornerstones of the market, and overseas issuers and local statutory bodies have also contributed to its growth [26]. Hong Kong Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bond Market Status - Affected by factors such as the US dollar interest rate hike, rising overseas financing costs, and changes in the credit environment, the issuance volume of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong has declined significantly since 2022, with negative net financing in the past three years [32]. - As of October 30, 2025, the outstanding amount of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 361.5 billion US dollars, with 1,180 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance and energy, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly over 3 years [37][40]. Dim Sum Bond Market Status - The issuance volume and net financing of Dim Sum bonds have increased significantly since 2022, reflecting the promotion of RMB internationalization and the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" [43]. - As of October 29, 2025, the outstanding amount of Dim Sum bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 1.5666 trillion RMB, with 1,266 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance, real estate, and consumption, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly between 1 - 3 years [48][50]. III. Investment Opportunities in Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is US Treasury bonds. In the first three quarters of 2025, US Treasury bond yields fluctuated and declined in the third quarter. It is expected to remain volatile at a low level in the future [55]. - Investment-grade Chinese dollar-denominated bonds have declined with US Treasury bonds this year, and the spread has narrowed to a low level since 2024. High-yield bonds have fluctuated, and the spread is at a high percentile [57]. - Due to the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the spread of overseas Chinese dollar-denominated urban investment bonds has significantly compressed since mid-2024 [59]. - The spread of real estate Chinese dollar-denominated bonds has shown significant differentiation. The spread of investment-grade bonds has continued to compress, while that of non-investment-grade bonds has fluctuated at a high level [63]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar has depreciated against the RMB in 2025, and the narrowing of the discount has reduced the exchange rate hedging cost, increasing the allocation value of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds [66]. - From a credit perspective, the number of defaults or extensions of local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises has decreased, and the investment strategy can focus on bonds of central and state-owned enterprises with large onshore-offshore spreads [67]. IV. Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Dim Sum bonds is offshore RMB sovereign bonds. This year, Dim Sum bonds have outperformed onshore bonds, and the spread has narrowed to about 50bp [69]. - On the supply side, due to the financing cost advantage and policy support, the issuance of Dim Sum bonds has increased in recent years, and the product structure is expected to become more diverse [71]. - On the demand side, the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" has broadened cross-border investment channels, and the strong demand of domestic institutions for overseas investment is beneficial to the secondary market performance of Dim Sum bonds. Some Dim Sum bonds still have relatively high spreads compared to onshore bonds, offering good value [71].

Group 1: Market Performance - The iBoxx China USD bond investment-grade index rose by 0.12% while the speculative-grade index increased by 0.48% last week [2] - The investment-grade yield remained stable compared to the previous week, while the speculative-grade yield rose by 0.03% [2] - The offshore bond issuance scale decreased in the primary market, while the secondary market saw slight increases in both investment-grade and high-yield bond indices [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing the previous month's decline, while the core CPI increased by 0.7% [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [3] - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, an increase of $322 billion from May [3] Group 3: Corporate News - Kaisa Group has completed 76% of the cash repayments for its Jin Heng Wealth products, providing new solutions for outstanding amounts [25] - Longfor Group announced that the restructuring plan for its 21 domestic bonds and asset-backed securities has been approved by bondholders [25] - Times China Holdings reported that over 85.67% of its plan creditors have agreed to the proposed restructuring plan [25] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide insurance funds for long-term stable investments, adjusting the assessment method for net asset return rates [2] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect program, enhancing Hong Kong's competitiveness as an offshore RMB business center [2] Group 5: Debt Issuance - Last week, 18 companies issued 21 offshore bonds totaling approximately $3.3 billion, with city investment bonds accounting for about $1.6 billion [8] - Changjiang Industrial issued over HKD 2 billion in medium-term notes, with competitive interest rates [8] - Tianchang Agricultural Development issued $90 million in bonds with a coupon rate of 6.45%, achieving a subscription rate of over four times [9]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced several measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect program, including expanding the range of participating institutions for southbound trading to include brokerages, insurance companies, wealth management, and asset management firms [1] - The European Union approved Bulgaria to adopt the euro starting January 1, 2026, making it the 21st member of the Eurozone, with a fixed exchange rate of 1.95583 leva per euro [1] - The Australian Federal Reserve unexpectedly maintained the key interest rate at 3.85%, emphasizing the need for further observation to confirm the achievement of inflation targets and to monitor global uncertainty risks [2] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.37% to 44,240.76 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 6,225.52 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.03% to 20,418.46 points [3] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.95% to $3,311.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 0.06% to $36.93 per ounce [4] - The main contract for West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 0.37% to $68.18 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.62% to $70.01 per barrel [5]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced the expansion of the Bond Connect program, allowing a wider range of non-bank financial institutions to participate, including brokers, insurance companies, wealth management, and asset management firms [2][3] Group 1: Impact on Non-Bank Financial Institutions - The inclusion of non-bank financial institutions as qualified investors will enhance their ability to meet diverse investment needs and optimize asset allocation, especially in the context of low domestic bond yields [3] - Non-bank institutions manage over 26 trillion yuan in assets, which can improve offshore asset allocation efficiency and promote diversified strategies, thereby supporting the marketization of offshore RMB bond pricing [3][4] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Capital Flow - The expansion is expected to result in an annual net outflow exceeding 800 billion yuan, which will further enhance market liquidity and broaden the offshore RMB bond market [4] - The collaboration between the "Southbound Trading" and "Hong Kong Stock Connect RMB Counter" is anticipated to create a closed-loop asset allocation system that accelerates RMB internationalization [4] Group 3: Strengthening Hong Kong's Position - The introduction of a re-pledging mechanism and multi-currency settlement measures is significant for consolidating Hong Kong's status as a RMB hub, enhancing liquidity by over 40% [5] - The integration of stock and bond markets in Hong Kong is expected to deepen the RMB liquidity pool, potentially surpassing London within three years [5] Group 4: Long-term Financial Market Integration - The optimization of the Bond Connect program will facilitate deeper interconnectivity between domestic and international financial markets, expanding the scale of capital flows in both directions [6] - The shift from policy-based to institutional openness in China's financial landscape is emphasized, with a focus on maintaining a balance between market vitality and financial security [6]