受 全球金融环境宽松、美元走软以及主要央行采取更宽松政策立场 推动。全球债务持续高增长引发关注。 2025年全球经济发展呈现出 鲜明的"分化与韧性并存"特征，主要国家和地区在面对地缘政治冲 突、债务高企、AI技术革命等多重挑战时，展现出不同的发展策略 与主旋律。 在此背景下，2026年全球经济将面临更加复杂的债务扩 张 挑 战 ， 各 国 将 采 取 差 异 化 应 对 策 略 ， 这 不 仅 会 影 响 全 球 经 济 格 局，也将重塑各国的政策选择与发展路径。 为此《清华金融评论》 编辑部特地展开征稿活动 。 《清华金融评论》 2026 年第2 期专题 全球债务持续高增长 受全球金融环境宽松、美元走软以及主要央行采取更宽松政策立场推动。全球债务持续高增长引发关注。 当债 务增长的速度远超经济产出的速度，风险便开始积聚。高额债务最直接的后果是巨额的利息支出。当财政收入 的大部分被用于偿还利息时，政府用于教育、医疗、基建等关键领域的投入就会被挤压，形成"借新债还旧 债"的恶性循环，最终侵蚀国家长期发展的根基。 4000～6000字（含图表） 征稿方向 1 债务扩张的多重影响与应对措施 2 全球债务对比：以美国 ...

01 12月10日，A股市场调整，个股表现分化。房地产板块异军突起，多只房地产相关ETF位居ETF市场涨幅榜前列。 02 12月10日，农业板块表现亮眼。种业、土地流转、水产品等主题表现强势，农业股整体表现活跃，农业相关主题ETF涨 幅居前。 03 上周，科技类ETF显著吸金，多只相关主题ETF上周净流入额超10亿元。本周前两个交易日，资金持续流入科技类 ETF。其中，科创债、科创板代表指数、恒生科技指数等相关主题ETF显著吸金。 房地产类ETF领涨 今日，房地产板块表现强势，多只成分股涨停，房地产类ETF跻身ETF市场涨幅榜前列。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 今日涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159768.SZ | 房地产ETF | 0.575 | 3.79% | | 159707.SZ | 地产ETF | 0.64 | 3.73% | | 512200.SH | 房地产ETF | 1.534 | 3.09% | | 515060.SH | 房地产ETF基金 | 0.732 | 2.95% | | 159542.SZ | 工程机械ETF | 1.419 | 2.23 ...

Group 1: Economic Structure and Demand Gap - Income distribution is increasingly skewed towards capital, leading to a concentration of wealth among high-net-worth individuals with low marginal propensity to consume, while labor income shares shrink[1] - This structural imbalance creates a persistent "demand gap," as high-income groups do not consume enough to match their income, while low-income groups lack disposable income despite their higher consumption willingness[1] - The reliance on credit expansion to mitigate demand shortfalls is limited; if debt expansion among households, government, and net exports stalls, the demand gap will widen, resulting in deflationary pressures[1] Group 2: Debt Cycle and Economic Trends - From 1992 to 2009, China experienced alternating expansions of household debt and net exports to balance supply and demand[2] - Between 2009 and 2018, household leverage rose significantly, becoming the primary driver of demand, but from 2020 to 2024, household leverage plateaued while government leverage increased, failing to prevent deflation[2] - The capital income share in China has been on the rise since 2015, and the slowdown in service sector growth from 2021 to 2024 may further exacerbate income distribution issues, increasing the demand gap[2] Group 3: Policy Implications and Historical Context - The experience of price recovery in 2016-2017 is unlikely to be replicated due to the current plateau in household leverage and a significant demand gap[3] - Structural reforms in income distribution and government spending optimization are necessary to reduce the demand gap and enable future price recovery once households regain leverage capacity[3] - Risk factors include potential market volatility abroad and uncertainties in domestic policy execution, which could impact economic stability[4]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, with an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market average forecast of 110,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the predicted 4.3% [1] - Following the strong non-farm data, traders reduced bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, with the probability of maintaining rates now at 95.3%, up from 74.7% the previous day [1] - The strong performance of the U.S. capital markets, with major stock indices reaching new closing highs, diminished the appeal of gold, while the U.S. dollar index rebounded from recent lows, further suppressing gold price momentum [1] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 218 in favor and 214 against, which had already been approved by the Senate [2] - The bill is set to be signed by President Trump on July 4, coinciding with Independence Day, making it effective [2] Group 3 - The most actively traded September silver futures rose by 25 cents, closing at $37.040 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.68% [3]