01 12月10日，A股市场调整，个股表现分化。房地产板块异军突起，多只房地产相关ETF位居ETF市场涨幅榜前列。 02 12月10日，农业板块表现亮眼。种业、土地流转、水产品等主题表现强势，农业股整体表现活跃，农业相关主题ETF涨 幅居前。 03 上周，科技类ETF显著吸金，多只相关主题ETF上周净流入额超10亿元。本周前两个交易日，资金持续流入科技类 ETF。其中，科创债、科创板代表指数、恒生科技指数等相关主题ETF显著吸金。 房地产类ETF领涨 今日，房地产板块表现强势，多只成分股涨停，房地产类ETF跻身ETF市场涨幅榜前列。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 今日涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159768.SZ | 房地产ETF | 0.575 | 3.79% | | 159707.SZ | 地产ETF | 0.64 | 3.73% | | 512200.SH | 房地产ETF | 1.534 | 3.09% | | 515060.SH | 房地产ETF基金 | 0.732 | 2.95% | | 159542.SZ | 工程机械ETF | 1.419 | 2.23 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in pig prices and strong performance in pet food sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1]. - The industry is currently trading at lower price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios compared to historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In October 2025, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 0.19%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a return of approximately 0% [8][11]. - The pet food sector experienced a decline, while the wood processing sector showed strong gains [11]. Livestock Farming Data Tracking - Pig prices continued to decline in October 2025, with an average price of 11.52 yuan/kg, down 11.46% month-on-month and 34.77% year-on-year [16]. - The average price for white feather broilers was 3.38 yuan/jin, showing a slight decrease of 0.29% month-on-month and 7.65% year-on-year [26]. Pet Food Sales Performance - During the "Double Eleven" period in 2025, total sales of pet food reached 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.3% [35]. - Pet food exports in September 2025 totaled 30,500 tons, up 18.78% year-on-year, while the cumulative export amount from January to September was 1.057 billion USD, down 3.73% year-on-year [32][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, QiuLe Seed Industry, GuaiBao Pet, ZhongChong Co., and Petty Co., all rated as "Buy" [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhonghang Securities highlights a decrease in the number of breeding sows in September, indicating potential further reductions in pig production capacity due to ongoing industry losses and seasonal disease outbreaks [1][2]. Industry Analysis - The number of breeding sows in China as of September was 40.35 million, a year-on-year decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) and a month-on-month decrease of 90,000 heads (0.2%) [1]. - The average price of live pigs in China as of October 25 was 11.83 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.4%, a month-on-month decrease of 7.2%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.7%, indicating historically low prices [1]. - As of October 24, the profit margins for pig farming were negative, with losses of 289.07 yuan per head for purchased piglets and 185.68 yuan per head for self-bred piglets, marking an increase in losses compared to the previous month [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The pig farming sector is expected to experience a reasonable reduction in production capacity due to ongoing losses and government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity, which may positively influence pig prices and market trends [2]. - The sales volume of pigs in September reached 7.6726 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 3.89%, while the average selling price decreased to 13.89 yuan per kilogram, down 4.89% from the previous month [3]. - The average weight of pigs sold in September was 102.4 kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.14% [3]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry is expected to recover alongside improvements in the pig farming sector, as historical data shows higher sales during profitable farming years [4]. - Increased competition in the animal health sector is anticipated, with weaker companies exiting the market, leading to higher industry concentration and benefits for larger firms with strong R&D capabilities [4]. - The domestic animal health market has significant growth potential, particularly in the pet medicine sector, supported by government policies promoting domestic vaccine production [4]. Agricultural Sector - The global grain supply and demand dynamics are being affected by geopolitical factors, with adjustments in production forecasts for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans for the 2025/26 season [5][6][7]. - The focus on seed industry revitalization is expected to continue, with policies promoting the commercialization of biotechnology and genetically modified crops, benefiting leading companies in the sector [8]. Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is projected to grow significantly, with compound annual growth rates of 17% for pet staple food, 15% for nutritional products, and 25% for snacks by 2026 [8]. - Leading domestic pet food companies are advancing brand strategies and expanding globally, which will help mitigate tariff risks and support overseas business growth [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company, a leader in the domestic corn seed industry, is currently facing short-term performance pressure but is expected to see a turning point as it ramps up research and development and expands its distribution channels [3] - The overall corn seed market is experiencing oversupply and intense competition, leading to declines in both sales volume and price [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 55 million, 67 million, and 77 million yuan respectively for those years [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 391 million yuan, a decrease of 26.77% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 36.49% [3][6] - The gross margin is expected to be 27.86%, down 4.23 percentage points, and the net margin is projected at 12.89%, down 1.98 percentage points [3] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 19.19 million yuan, a decline of 45.25%, with a net loss of 4.48 million yuan [3] Research and Development - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 2160.87 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 17.98% [5] - Several of the company's corn varieties have been recognized for their disease resistance and high yield, with specific varieties selected as leading agricultural varieties in various provinces [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively exploring online sales channels, including establishing its own e-commerce platform and collaborating with influencers and e-commerce teams [5] - The company aims to enhance its market position in the wheat and peanut seed markets, anticipating accelerated expansion in these areas [3]