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中航证券:9月官方能繁母猪调降 生猪养殖亏损延续
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 02:32
猪价处于低位,生猪养殖行业亏损延续。据iFind,截至10月25日,全国样本生猪外三元均价11.83元/公 斤,周环比增5.4%,较上月降7.2%,同比已降32.7%,处于历史低位。猪价低迷引致行业养殖处于亏损 区间。截至10月24日,行业外购仔猪养殖利润为头均亏损289.07元,自繁自养养殖利润为头均亏损 185.68元,较上月同期增亏52.50元和111.58元。 智通财经APP获悉,中航证券发布研报称,近期,国家统计局发布数据,9月能繁母猪存栏4035万头, 同比减少28万头,下降0.7%,环比减少9万头,略降0.2%。9月官方能繁母猪调降。随着生猪养殖行业 亏损延续,冬季疫病抬头,行业能繁母猪存栏有望进一步调减,关注生猪产能可能的超预期调减给板块 带来的推动。 中航证券主要观点如下: 9月官方能繁母猪调降 交易上,生猪板块存中长期配置价值,关注生猪产能超预期调减给板块带来的推动。一是生猪周期轮转 不止,生猪养殖处亏损区间,配合"反内卷"政策引导,产能有望合理调减,猪价预期和生猪板块走势有 望演绎。二是生猪行业优势企业价值属性增强。长期稳态下生猪养殖产业整体将保持一定的利润水平, 而行业具备养殖管理和成 ...
秋乐种业(831087):北交所信息更新:国内玉米种业领军者业绩短期承压,静待研发与渠道发力迎拐点
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-06-16 10:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company, a leader in the domestic corn seed industry, is currently facing short-term performance pressure but is expected to see a turning point as it ramps up research and development and expands its distribution channels [3] - The overall corn seed market is experiencing oversupply and intense competition, leading to declines in both sales volume and price [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 55 million, 67 million, and 77 million yuan respectively for those years [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 391 million yuan, a decrease of 26.77% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 36.49% [3][6] - The gross margin is expected to be 27.86%, down 4.23 percentage points, and the net margin is projected at 12.89%, down 1.98 percentage points [3] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 19.19 million yuan, a decline of 45.25%, with a net loss of 4.48 million yuan [3] Research and Development - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 2160.87 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 17.98% [5] - Several of the company's corn varieties have been recognized for their disease resistance and high yield, with specific varieties selected as leading agricultural varieties in various provinces [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively exploring online sales channels, including establishing its own e-commerce platform and collaborating with influencers and e-commerce teams [5] - The company aims to enhance its market position in the wheat and peanut seed markets, anticipating accelerated expansion in these areas [3]