Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The industry will experience range - bound oscillations, with the strong game - playing pattern continuing. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in costs, supply, and demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract showed wide - range oscillations, with prices fluctuating between 155,000 yuan/ton and 173,400 yuan/ton, closing at 161,940 yuan/ton. Trading volume slightly shrank to 589,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 453,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 27,200 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 163,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 1,060 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of market transactions, upstream lithium salt manufacturers preferentially fulfilled long - term agreements, and their willingness to sell spot orders was low, with some manufacturers quoting high prices. The proportion of spot purchases by downstream material manufacturers increased during long - term agreement negotiations. The weakening of the afternoon market led to a recovery in inquiry and transactions, and overall transactions moderately increased [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% month - on - month, continuing the upward trend and strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling increased slightly. SMM's total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [4]. - **Demand side**: There was a significant structural differentiation. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory destocking. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while SMM new energy vehicle sales and penetration reached new highs. Slight growth in the production scheduling of energy - storage cells supported demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [4]. Policy Impact - In 2026, subsidies for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly provided favorable support for long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may exacerbate short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export rush demand [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a high - level range - bound, and investors should be vigilant about potential price corrections. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in cost, supply, and demand [4] 3. Summary by Key Points Market Performance of Lithium Carbonate - The main contract of lithium carbonate continued its strong trend after opening yesterday, with the disk price hitting the daily limit of 174,600 yuan/ton and closing at 166,980 yuan/ton. Trading volume increased to 608,200 lots, and open interest decreased to 460,300 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 26,900 lots [3] - The average price of SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market was 159,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 7,480 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Side Analysis - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% week - on - week, strengthening cost support [4] - The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% week - on - week. The operating rates of spodumene and salt - lake lithium decreased slightly, while those of lithium - mica and the recycling end increased slightly. The total output of SMM lithium carbonate increased by 0.5% week - on - week, and production capacity was further released [4] Demand - Side Analysis - There was significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% week - on - week respectively, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly, while SMM new - energy vehicle sales and penetration rate reached new highs, and the production schedule of SMM energy - storage cells increased slightly, supporting demand [4] Inventory Situation - Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% week - on - week, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days increased slightly to 28 days [4] Policy Impact - In 2026, policies such as car trade - in subsidies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt - Lake Industry Plan, the key points of energy - storage development during the 14th Five - Year Plan, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support the long - term balance of supply and demand [4] - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may intensify short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export - rush demand [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations, and it is necessary to focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday morning, the main lithium carbonate contract opened more than 7% higher, reaching 147,000 yuan/ton, then fell back to around 140,000 yuan/ton, with 420,000 lots traded and 506,500 lots in open interest, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest [3]. - The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - to - short ratio slightly decreased, and some funds took profits [3]. - The average price of SMM electric carbon was 133,500 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract narrowed, but it was still at a negative basis [3]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, with further release of production capacity, and the cost - side support continued to strengthen as upstream raw material prices continued to rise [4]. - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. The demand for lithium iron phosphate was strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory depletion, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials was weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached new highs, providing a solid support for lithium carbonate demand [4]. Inventory - Last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the inventory depletion slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as the previous week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [4]. Policy - In 2026, the subsidy for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference formed a coordinated positive effect to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - In the short term, regulatory tightening was clear, and measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were taken to stabilize price fluctuations [4]. - On January 4th, the issuance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" by the State Council, combined with news of mine复产, still provided upward price drive, but market sentiment ebbed, and some funds took profits [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Views of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate [1][2] - The market for lithium carbonate remains hot, and its price is expected to fluctuate upward in a range, focusing on marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures opened more than 4% higher, hit an 8.99% daily limit in the afternoon and closed at that level. The main contract closed at 137,940 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 304,200 lots and open interest increasing to 535,000 lots. The main net short position pattern continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [1] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon was 127,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 10,440 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. After the price increase, the market is in a state where upstream suppliers are reluctant to sell and downstream buyers are afraid of high prices [1] - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, and the supply side further released production capacity. The cost - side support continued to strengthen, and the price of upstream raw materials continued to rise [2] - There is a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. The demand for lithium iron phosphate is strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory reduction, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials is weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles at the terminal have reached a high level, providing strong support for lithium carbonate demand [2] - In terms of inventory, last week, the SMM sample's total weekly inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the de - stocking slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as last week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [2] - At the policy level, the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy policy, the Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the 14th Five - Year Plan for Energy Storage, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support the long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has taken measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations [3] - On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", and the news of mine resumption has an impact. The upward driving force still exists, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in supply and demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The price center of finished products is moving downward, and they are operating weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation [1][3] - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate upward, and attention should be focused on marginal changes in supply and demand [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, and a total impact on construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3] - Finished products continued to decline oscillatingly yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures were running at a high level. The main contract closed at 129,980 yuan/ton, with trading volume continuously shrinking to 343,600 lots and open interest increasing to 515,300 lots. The net short position of the main force continued. The average price of electric carbon in the spot market was 119,500 yuan/ton, with a negative basis of - 10,480 yuan/ton. The proportion of long - term agreements between upstream and downstream decreased this year. Upstream lithium salt plants are more willing to sell spot orders, while downstream cathode material plants plan to shut down for maintenance during the Spring Festival and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude in purchasing [2] - In terms of fundamentals, the weekly operating rate and output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% week - on - week last week, with further release of production capacity. The cost - side support is strengthening, and upstream raw material prices continue to rise. There is a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. The demand for lithium iron phosphate is strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory depletion. The demand for ternary materials is weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles at the terminal reached a new high, providing strong support for lithium carbonate demand. The total inventory of SMM samples decreased by 0.15% week - on - week last week, with a slower depletion slope. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, and the inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, with the tight inventory pattern remaining unchanged [3] - Policy - wise, the 2026 car trade - in subsidy policy, Fed rate cuts, Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, energy storage "15th Five - Year" key points, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening is clear. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", and combined with the news of mine resumption, the futures price may oscillate upward [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range-bound consolidation. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited support for prices [1][2]. - The view on raw materials (carbonate lithium) is that it will stabilize in a range-bound manner, focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes. The supply side is releasing more capacity, the cost - side support is strengthening, short - term demand declines slightly while long - term demand support is solid, and the inventory is tight but its support for prices is weakening [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - **Logic**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total production of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or plan to shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. The finished products continued to decline in a range - bound manner yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center moves down. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing limited price support [1][2]. - **View**: Operate in a range - bound consolidation [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand [2] Raw Materials (Carbonate Lithium) - **Logic**: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate and output of SMM carbonate lithium increased by 1.2% week - on - week last week. The cost - side support is strengthening as upstream raw material prices continue to rise. On the demand side, short - term demand slightly decreases while long - term demand support is solid. SMM data shows that the production of ternary and lithium iron decreased by 3.2% and 0.8% respectively week - on - week last week, and the production of power cells decreased by 0.92% week - on - week. The inventory of ternary increased by 3.2% week - on - week, and that of lithium iron decreased by 0.98% week - on - week. The SMM sample total inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, with a slower de - stocking slope, and the total inventory days remained at 26.1 days. The inventory structure is shifting from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The inventory is still tight, but its support for prices is weakening [2]. - **View**: Stabilize in a range - bound manner, focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies, capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience and high - price acceptance, sample inventory de - stocking slope, capital and sentiment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The price of finished products will move in a downward trend with a weak performance, and it is expected to move in a shock - consolidation manner [1][3]. - The price of lithium carbonate will experience reduced market gaming and stabilize in a range - bound shock, focusing on market gaming and marginal supply - demand changes [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - **Production Disruption**: During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Price Trend**: The price of finished products continued to decline in a shock on the previous day, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, causing the price center to move down. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to move in a shock - consolidation manner, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: On the previous day, the lithium carbonate futures showed a wide - range shock. The main contract closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 459,500 lots and an open interest of 511,300 lots. The market gaming significantly decreased. The net short position of the main contract continued, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of electric lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, with a negative basis of - 3,580 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers' spot sales are still limited, while downstream material producers have certain rigid - demand procurement and restocking behavior, and the overall market trading has slightly improved [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate and output of SMM lithium carbonate increased by 0.53% week - on - week, with a slowdown in growth. In terms of demand, short - term demand slightly decreased, while long - term demand was firmly supported. The production of ternary and lithium iron decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% respectively week - on - week, and inventory continued to decline [3]. - **Inventory**: The total weekly inventory decreased by 0.59% week - on - week and increased by 1.97% year - on - year, with a slowdown in the de - stocking slope. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The social inventory in four regions increased by 3.30% week - on - week, with a phased inventory build - up, and was 48.79% lower year - on - year, indicating a tight inventory situation with a weakened price support [3]. - **Policy**: On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document to continue the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy policy, which, together with a series of policies, supports long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, supervision has tightened, and the futures price is expected to maintain a shock - consolidation trend [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to stabilize in a range - bound shock, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies, production capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience and high - price acceptance, sample inventory de - stocking slope, and capital and sentiment [4].