晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：震荡上行 聚焦供需边际变化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策、矿山复产消息、产能释放进度、下游 需求韧性及高价接受度、样本库存去化斜率、资金与情绪 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2026 年 1 月 6 日 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：区间震荡企稳 规避短期波动风险 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 逻辑:上一交易日碳酸锂期货区间震荡，主力合约收至 121580 元/吨， 成交缩至 39.25 万手， ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：博弈降温 区间震荡企稳 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货日内呈现宽幅震荡态势，主力合约收至 121580 元/吨，成交缩至 45.95 万手，持仓量维持 51.13 万手，市场博弈明显降温。 资金面来看，主力净空格局延续，注册仓单持续增加，市场供给预期有所 宽松。现货端，SMM 数据显示电碳均价与昨日齐平，维持 118000 元/吨 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约低开收高至123520元/吨，成交缩量至92.5万手， 持仓减至 60.7 万手，多空比例持续上行，主力净空格局延续，注册仓单增加。 现货端，SMM 数据显示电碳均价 104900 元/吨延续上行，主力合约基差-18620 元/吨，期货对未来价格的预期显著高于现货，资金情绪推动期价脱离基本面特 征明显。市场成交端，上游大部分锂盐厂以保长协为主、散单较少；下游材料厂 高价观望，刚需采购及长协客供加量为主；贸易商成交清淡。 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to move downward with a weak trend and operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, while lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a range-bound manner, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total output. Six Anhui short - process steel mills will have one stop on January 5th and most around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [2] - The finished products continued to decline and hit a new low. In the weak supply - demand situation, the price center moved down due to pessimistic market sentiment. This year's winter storage is sluggish and provides weak price support. The outlook is for volatile consolidation [1][2] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased positions, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The average price of electric carbon was 97,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8,410 yuan/ton. Market transactions rely on a small number of enterprises' rigid - demand purchases, with few actual deals [1] - As of December 18, the weekly production rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, a 0.21% MoM increase, and the output was 22,045 tons, a 0.21% MoM increase. The spodumene process was the core growth factor. The 10,000 - ton/year spodumene production line of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Energy was ignited on December 18 [2] - As of December 18, affected by weakening demand from battery cell manufacturers and maintenance of some lithium iron phosphate plants, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.2% MoM. The inventories of ternary and lithium iron phosphate continued to decline [2] - In November, the production of new - energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased YoY. As of December 7, the sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly YoY and the penetration rate increased MoM, showing short - term adjustment but long - term resilience [2] - As of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% MoM to 110,400 tons, continuing the destocking trend with a slower slope. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% MoM to 26.2 days. Although there was inventory accumulation in other links, the overall inventory was still tight, supporting prices [2] - The Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference are positive for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate. The market sentiment is affected by the tight supply - demand balance, overseas resource/restart news, and domestic lithium mine capacity dynamics, leading to continued capital games [3]