根据会议纪要援引的一项调查，受访者预计，美联储在未来12个月内的净买入规模平均约为2200亿美 元。美联储计划初期每月购买约400亿美元国库券，随后逐步放缓节奏，目前已在当月完成约380亿美元 的购买，并计划在1月继续操作。 官员强调，这一举措旨在管理银行准备金水平，与货币政策立场或刺激经济无关。会议讨论指出，在量 化紧缩(QT)与国库券发行规模上升的共同作用下，短期资金成本上升速度快于以往周期，回购市场一度 显现紧张迹象。美联储已于本月早些时候结束缩表，以防流动性不足冲击金融市场"管道系统"。 纪要显示，部分官员建议，不应机械地锚定某一准备金数量，而应更多关注货币市场利率相对于准备金 利率的表现。数据显示，关键隔夜融资利率在12月29日固定在3.77%，比准备金利率高出12个基点。 最新公布的会议纪要显示，美联储官员在12月是否降息的问题上，内部立场远比分歧投票结果本身更为 复杂。尽管联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)最终决定年内第三次、也是最后一次下调利率，纪要披露，多 名支持降息的官员当时"几乎支持暂停降息"。 纪要显示，12月会议上共有三名官员投下反对票，为2019年以来最多。其中两人主张维持利率不变，另 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction - The Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.38 trillion from April 13, 2022, to October 29, 2025, decreasing total assets from a peak of $8.97 trillion to $6.59 trillion, averaging a monthly decline of about $56 billion[4][7]. - The reserve balance has decreased by $970 billion to $2.83 trillion during the same period, with the ON RRP (Overnight Reverse Repurchase) declining to $370 billion from $1.7 trillion[9][3]. - The expected "ample reserves" level is estimated at $2.7 trillion, which corresponds to 9.3% of nominal GDP and 11.5% of total assets of U.S. commercial banks as of October 29, 2025[15][3]. Group 2: Indicators of Ample Reserves - Ample reserves are characterized by a balance that is neither abundant nor scarce, with the current reserve level indicating it is approaching "ample" status[11][15]. - The ON RRP has been consistently below $100 billion since October 7, 2025, indicating a significant reduction in excess liquidity[17]. - Market interest rates, such as the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) and Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), have shown increased sensitivity, suggesting that reserves are nearing "ample" conditions[20][21]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - After the cessation of balance sheet reduction, reserves may continue to decline temporarily before stabilizing and gradually increasing, with expectations of reaching slightly above $2.7 trillion by mid-2026[27][26]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to balance sheet reduction aims to mitigate the risk of liquidity crises, as seen in the 2019 episode, but liquidity pressures are still a concern[30][31]. - If liquidity pressures unexpectedly rise, it could lead to fluctuations in Treasury yields, with potential short-term declines in rates if investor demand increases due to heightened concerns about liquidity risks[36][39].