Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the QE era, highlighting the transition from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and the implications for monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet management [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition from QE to QT - The Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of QE and two rounds of QT from 2008 to 2026, with total assets expected to remain above $6 trillion by the end of 2025 [2]. - In December 2025, the FOMC meeting indicated a restart of reserve management purchases (RMO) to maintain sufficient reserves, emphasizing the fundamental differences between RMP and QE [2]. 2. Framework of the Balance Sheet - The Fed's policy framework shifted from a "scarce reserves" model to a "ample reserves" model post-2008 financial crisis, where policy rates serve as the primary indicator of monetary policy stance rather than the balance sheet [2]. - Under the "ample reserves" framework, policy rates and the balance sheet operate under separate decision-making systems [2]. 3. Conditions for Future QE - The article posits that a return to QE or yield curve control (YCC) may be necessary if the Fed lowers interest rates, suggesting that 2026 could mark the final phase of the current liquidity easing cycle [3]. - It argues that the Fed's balance sheet is not strictly a one-way street of expansion, indicating that the QE era may be over until the next crisis arises [3]. 4. Observations from Local "Two Sessions" - The average GDP growth target for twenty provinces and cities is set at 5.1% for 2026, with various adjustments noted compared to 2025 targets [19]. - The article provides a detailed table of GDP growth targets, CPI targets, and other economic indicators for different provinces, reflecting a trend of slight downward adjustments in growth expectations [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the QE era, highlighting the transition from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and the implications for monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of QE and two rounds of QT from 2008 to 2026, with total assets expected to remain above $6 trillion by the end of 2025 [2]. - The shift from a "scarce reserves" framework to a "ample reserves" framework has changed the operational approach of the Federal Reserve, where policy rates are now the primary indicator of monetary policy rather than the balance sheet [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The article suggests that a return to QE or Yield Curve Control (YCC) may be necessary if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to zero, indicating that the QE era may be over until the next crisis [3]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is not a one-way street; it can contract as well as expand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - The article notes that various provinces and cities in China have set GDP growth targets averaging 5.1% for 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to economic recovery [19]. - The targets indicate a slight downward adjustment compared to previous years, with some regions aiming for better-than-expected results [19].

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4118 | -0.96 | 3.85 | -0.44 | | 深证综指 | 2684 | -0.78 | 5.71 | -2.27 | | 风格指数 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (％) | | | | | 大盘指数 | -0.81 | 0.63 | 13.2 | | 中盘指数 | -1.67 | 10.42 | 31.3 | | 小盘指数 | -1.05 | 8.78 | 24.7 | 涨幅居前 行业(％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 通信设备 4.32 4.7 87.85 种植业 3.61 12.69 19.72 渔业 3.35 10.96 8.63 影视院线 2.39 12.32 5.47 橡胶 2.07 10.83 17.04 跌幅居前 行业(％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 贵金属 -8.87 59.71 116.25 工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion and the end of the QE era, highlighting the potential shifts in liquidity and market dynamics [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve has significantly expanded its balance sheet, which has led to increased liquidity in the financial system [2] - The article emphasizes that the era of Quantitative Easing (QE) is coming to an end, suggesting a transition towards tighter monetary policy [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The end of QE may lead to increased volatility in financial markets as liquidity conditions change [2] - Investors may need to adjust their strategies in response to the shifting landscape of monetary policy and its impact on asset prices [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The article suggests that the changes in the Federal Reserve's approach could have broader implications for economic growth and inflation [2] - It highlights the importance of monitoring economic indicators as the Fed navigates this transition [2]