智通财经APP获悉，11月13日，TrendForce集邦咨询发布，当前硅料库存量已达到43万吨左右，并且仍处于持续累库阶段。在供过于求、库存累积的背景 下，硅料的实际成交价格已出现暗降迹象。展望短期，考虑到政策面的预期支撑，预计硅料价格将暂时告别大幅下跌，转入弱稳阶段。 01 多晶硅：库存高企致价格暗降，短期或转入"弱稳"阶段 库存 当前硅料库存量已达到43万吨左右，并且仍处于持续累库阶段。 供给 行业整体产出已有所降低，预计11月份产量约为12.5万吨，环比减少1.1万吨。主流企业的开工情况增减不一：红狮、新特、弘元等维持满产或高开工；而 通威、协鑫等头部企业的部分基地则正在降开工率或计划下调；同时，部分项目（如戈恩斯、南玻）处于检修或低开工率状态，亦有项目（如青海丽豪、 东方希望）检修后爬坡或试生产。 需求 市场持续弱势。虽然本周签单家数有所增加，但下游关键的硅片企业在11月已有减产计划，导致对硅料的实际需求继续萎缩。目前市场整体处于供给和需 求均在收缩的供需双弱局面。 价格趋势 在供过于求、库存累积的背景下，硅料的实际成交价格已出现暗降迹象。展望短期，考虑到政策面的预期支撑，预计硅料价格将暂时告别大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the weak demand and high inventory levels across various segments, including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules, leading to price pressures and a potential shift to a "weak stability" phase for polysilicon prices [4][6][8][12]. Polysilicon - Current polysilicon inventory has reached approximately 430,000 tons and continues to accumulate [4]. - The overall output in the industry has decreased, with an expected production of about 125,000 tons in November, a reduction of 11,000 tons month-on-month [5]. - Despite an increase in the number of orders, the actual demand for polysilicon is shrinking due to planned production cuts by downstream wafer manufacturers [6]. - The actual transaction prices for polysilicon have shown signs of decline, but a significant drop is not expected in the short term due to policy support [7]. Wafers - The current wafer inventory remains high at over 23 GW, with some manufacturers beginning to reduce production due to high inventory pressure [8]. - The market continues to exhibit an oversupply situation, with supply still exceeding demand despite some production cuts from smaller manufacturers [9]. - The actual demand remains weak, making it difficult to digest existing inventory and current production levels [10]. - Wafer prices are under significant downward pressure, with prices for 183N and 210RN wafers nearing 1.25 RMB and 1.6 RMB respectively [11]. Cells - The inventory in the cell segment has accumulated to over 7 days, indicating a significant increase in stock and slow turnover [12]. - The supply side is expected to adjust due to high inventory and shrinking demand, with a substantial reduction in production anticipated [13]. - The pressure from downstream module orders has increased, leading to a lack of confidence in the market [13]. - Current cell prices are under pressure, with mainstream prices for 183N at 0.3 RMB/W and 210RN at 0.28 RMB/W, with some traders resorting to low-price dumping [15]. Modules - The module market is facing challenges from both domestic and international demand shrinkage, exacerbated by the seasonal transition to winter [16]. - There is a divergence in supply, with major manufacturers maintaining stable production while smaller producers are reportedly halting operations [16]. - The strong desire among module manufacturers to increase year-end sales has led to price reductions, with conventional module prices dropping to around 0.65 RMB/W [16]. - The decline in costs for upstream materials like cells and glass, combined with weak terminal demand, is putting additional downward pressure on module prices [16].

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, with revenue at 97.78 billion yuan, down 0.35% year-on-year, and net profit at 4.135 billion yuan, down 61.37% year-on-year [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from electrical equipment and wire and cable products increased by 20.98% and 15.81% respectively, reaching 22.364 billion yuan and 15.692 billion yuan [1] - Coal product revenue was 19.264 billion yuan, impacted by a decrease in coal prices, leading to a gross margin drop of 13.99 percentage points to 32.42% [1] - Revenue from new energy products and engineering saw a significant decline of 33.94%, totaling 18.531 billion yuan, with a gross margin of only 1.41%, down 29.94 percentage points [1] Losses and Impairments - The company faced substantial losses in its polysilicon business due to a significant drop in market prices, leading to a provision for impairment of fixed assets amounting to 1.474 billion yuan [2] - The company also recorded asset impairment losses of 3.56 billion yuan for the year, which negatively impacted overall performance [2] Dividend Distribution - The profit distribution plan for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) for all shareholders [2] Q1 2025 Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 23.357 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, down 19.74% year-on-year [2] - The company's power generation for Q1 2025 was 8.251 billion kWh, an increase of 24.86% year-on-year, with coal power generation at 6.126 billion kWh, up 28.28% [2] Investment and Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its renewable energy capacity, announcing an investment of 1.488 billion yuan for a 300MW photovoltaic project [3] - Additionally, the company plans to invest in a coal-to-natural gas project with a total investment of 17.039 billion yuan and a supporting coal supply project costing 0.808 billion yuan [3]

周价格表 | 多晶硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N型复投料(RMB) | 45.000 | 39.000 | 41.000 | 0.00% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 42.000 | 37.000 | 40.000 | 0.00% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 39.000 | 37.000 | 38.000 | 0.00% | | 非中国区多智娃(USD) | 22.000 | 13.100 | 18.700 | -1.58% | | 硅片 (Per pc) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型183单晶硅片-183mm/130pm (RMB) | 1.250 | 1.180 | 1.230 | -1.60% | | N型210单晶硅片-210mm/130pm (RMB) | 1.550 | 1.480 | 1.500 | -3.23% | | N型210R单晶硅片-210*182mm/130µm (RMB) | 1.500 | 1.350 | 1.430 | -4.67% ...