2026年的维多利亚港，正在见证中国美妆产业史上最拥挤、也最焦虑的一次抢滩登陆。 随着林清轩成功上市，HBN、半亩花田相继交表，以及行业巨头珀莱雅拟赴港二次上市的消息传出，一条清晰的迁徙路线图展现在市场面前：在A股IPO 闸门对消费类企业几近关闭的背景下，港交所已成为国货美妆的诺亚方舟。 然而，繁荣的表象下暗流涌动。毛戈平超30倍的市盈率是一个极具诱惑性的路标，它让许多后来者误以为港股已经准备好为国货情怀支付高溢价。 但资本市场永远是理性的，甚至势利的。 这波上市潮并非狂欢的开始，而是行业分化与价值重估的残酷开端。对于正在排队的国货品牌而言，留给它们的时间窗口或许只剩不到18个月。 估值错觉，毛戈平是孤品，不是标品 当下行业最大的误区，莫过于将毛戈平的高估值视为国货美妆的新常态。 复盘毛戈平的财报，其超过80%的毛利率与极低的营销费率，构建了一种近乎反重力的财务模型。 这种模型建立在独特的彩妆+培训双轮驱动及深厚的私域沉淀之上，这使得毛戈平成功摆脱了对外部流量投放的致命依赖。 因此，资本市场给予毛戈平的高PE，本质上是对其高净利、高现金流、低费率这一稀缺商业模式的定价，而非对国货美妆赛道的普惠性奖赏。 毛戈平 ...

Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently facing losses for both fat and piglet sales, indicating conditions for capacity reduction. The industry is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, presenting a left-side layout opportunity for the pig farming sector. A price turning point is anticipated in mid-2026 [16][20][34] - Major pig farming companies recommended include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with attention to Dekang Agriculture and New Hope. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller farming enterprises to watch include Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [16][34] Pig Industry Analysis - In 2025, the pig price fell below the cost line, leading to overall industry losses. By November, the average loss per self-breeding pig was 122 CNY per head, with an estimated annual profit of 30-80 CNY per head [20][23] - The industry is experiencing a significant reduction in breeding sow inventory, with a decrease to 39.9 million heads by October 2025, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [28][36] Dairy Industry Analysis - The raw milk price continued to decline in 2025, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory. As the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices are expected to rise in 2026-2027 [16][18] - The beef supply is also entering a contraction phase, with expectations for beef prices to rise in 2026, enhancing the performance elasticity of livestock companies [16][18] Feed Industry Analysis - The feed sector is expected to see stable water aquaculture production in 2026, while demand for livestock feed is projected to decline due to reduced breeding capacity. Domestic feed leaders are positioned to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [17][18] - The global feed industry is undergoing structural changes, providing opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand internationally [17] Animal Health Industry Analysis - The animal health sector faces intensified competition, with traditional vaccine product margins declining. Companies are shifting towards multi-business models, including pet health products, to open new growth avenues [17][18] Pet Food Industry Analysis - The pet food market is showing signs of consolidation, with leading companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. performing well. The long-term growth logic for the industry remains strong, supported by the rise of domestic brands [17][18] - Companies are also expanding their global production capabilities to mitigate trade friction impacts [17] Crop Industry Analysis - Corn prices are expected to rebound in 2025, with a potential strong performance in 2026. The seed industry is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with opportunities arising from transgenic innovations and industry consolidation [18][19]

Core Insights - Tianshan Aluminum has demonstrated robust growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 22.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.340 billion yuan, up 8.31% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a quarterly net profit of 1.256 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 34%, driven by stable aluminum prices and effective cost management [1] - The company is advancing a green low-carbon transformation project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, which is expected to increase total production by nearly 20% [2] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.200 billion yuan, also showing an 8.08% year-on-year growth [1] - Financial expenses decreased by 30.8% year-on-year, contributing to profit growth [1] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend plan for 2025, distributing 920 million yuan in dividends, with a commitment to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 50% of net profit for 2025 [2] Shareholder Returns - The company has completed a share buyback of 23.7052 million shares, accounting for 0.51% of total shares, with a total expenditure exceeding 200 million yuan [3] - The recent decision to cancel 23.148 million shares from earlier buybacks, amounting to 150 million yuan, is viewed as a "quasi-dividend" operation, enhancing shareholder value [3] - The shareholder return strategy is reinforced by high dividends and share buybacks, reflecting the company's confidence in its value [3] Industry Position and Future Outlook - Tianshan Aluminum is strategically enhancing its upstream resource layout with projects in Guangxi, Guinea, and Indonesia, which are expected to improve self-sufficiency in bauxite and strengthen cost advantages [3] - The company has established a three-dimensional development framework characterized by stable profitability, growth potential, and substantial returns, positioning it as a high-value investment target in the non-ferrous sector [4] - The combination of green capacity expansion, optimized resource layout, and a high dividend policy is expected to enhance the company's defensive capabilities and growth potential amid industry cycles [4]