Group 1 - Michael Spence highlighted that the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO and climate agreements indicates a retreat from sustainable development agendas, leading to three potential scenarios for the future [1] - The most likely scenario is a mixed one, where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging markets, as the economic weight of emerging markets is gradually increasing [1] - Spence noted that the trade negotiations are showing positive changes, with the negative effects on consumer confidence in the U.S. economy being a significant concern [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is emphasized, with current inflationary pressures easing but ongoing tariff policies raising questions about necessary countermeasures [3] - Spence mentioned that the recent developments in AI technology, particularly the rise of open-source AI models, are having a positive impact on the global economy [3] - The report from Stanford indicates that the gap between the U.S. and China in AI technology is rapidly narrowing, with both countries focusing on smaller models that are more cost-effective [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum opened in Shenzhen, focusing on themes such as global economic fragmentation, monetary system reconstruction, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area strategy, and the AI revolution [1] - Keynote speakers included Nobel laureate Michael Spence and former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka, addressing structural contradictions and policy dilemmas in the current global economy [3] - Tsinghua University emphasized its role in providing a "certainty anchor" for global economic development through high-quality growth and financial technology breakthroughs [3] Group 2 - Michael Spence highlighted the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the global trade system, suggesting that a multilateral system is still possible despite current challenges [3] - Marek Belka pointed out the imbalances and instabilities in the global economy, particularly in the U.S., attributing chronic trade deficits to domestic economic issues [4] - Experts at the forum noted a trend towards a diversified international monetary system, although the dominance of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to change in the short term [4]