很多人以为特朗普最担心的是中国另起炉灶，但实际上让他真正感到焦虑的，恰恰是相反的情况。美国一直担心的是中国并没有打破游戏规则，反而在美国 设定的规则中逐步占据了与美国对抗的位置。这种体制内崛起让美国极为头疼，因为它意味着中国通过规则逐步提升自己的影响力，而不是通过颠覆来挑 战。 特朗普时代的美国，如果要留下最真实的画面，它可能不是他站在讲台上举拳挥击的那一刻，而是美国普通家庭在超市结账时拿到的那张越来越长的小票。 许多美国人至今没有搞清楚：为什么关税本应是针对外国的武器，结果最后却伤害的是自己？ 这背后的原因其实并不复杂。对华加税并不是中国企业直接向美国政府交税，而是进口商首先承担了成本，然后这些成本被一层层传递，最终加到商品的价 格里。无论是电视、洗衣机，还是手机配件、日常用品，几乎所有商品都会受到影响。于是，出现了一个非常讽刺的现实：政治口号喊得越来越响，美国制 造的标语也越喊越高，但普通家庭的生活成本却在悄悄上涨。 问题并不是执行出现偏差，而是这种做法的逻辑本身就有问题。美国的精英层最初设想通过关税把制造业逼回家，既能打击对手，又能振兴本国就业。然 而，他们忽略了一个非常关键的事实：美国早已不再是一个低 ...

Group 1 - Michael Spence highlighted that the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO and climate agreements indicates a retreat from sustainable development agendas, leading to three potential scenarios for the future [1] - The most likely scenario is a mixed one, where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging markets, as the economic weight of emerging markets is gradually increasing [1] - Spence noted that the trade negotiations are showing positive changes, with the negative effects on consumer confidence in the U.S. economy being a significant concern [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is emphasized, with current inflationary pressures easing but ongoing tariff policies raising questions about necessary countermeasures [3] - Spence mentioned that the recent developments in AI technology, particularly the rise of open-source AI models, are having a positive impact on the global economy [3] - The report from Stanford indicates that the gap between the U.S. and China in AI technology is rapidly narrowing, with both countries focusing on smaller models that are more cost-effective [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum opened in Shenzhen, focusing on themes such as global economic fragmentation, monetary system reconstruction, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area strategy, and the AI revolution [1] - Keynote speakers included Nobel laureate Michael Spence and former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka, addressing structural contradictions and policy dilemmas in the current global economy [3] - Tsinghua University emphasized its role in providing a "certainty anchor" for global economic development through high-quality growth and financial technology breakthroughs [3] Group 2 - Michael Spence highlighted the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the global trade system, suggesting that a multilateral system is still possible despite current challenges [3] - Marek Belka pointed out the imbalances and instabilities in the global economy, particularly in the U.S., attributing chronic trade deficits to domestic economic issues [4] - Experts at the forum noted a trend towards a diversified international monetary system, although the dominance of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to change in the short term [4]