本文自南都·湾财社。 采写 | 南都·湾财社记者 张海霞 白酒调整周期下，世界酒业巨头的日子也不算好过。 帝亚吉欧："从未提及要出售"，但"无法拒绝的报价"会考虑 此前，有消息称，帝亚吉欧目前已开始考虑包括出售选项在内的方式，优化其在中国的投资组合，投行高盛集团及瑞银集团已与帝亚吉欧展开合作并审查 其中国资产的运营情况。 其中，帝亚吉欧的控股子公司水井坊"是否会被出售"成为关注的焦点。 南都湾财社记者注意到，关于水井坊要"被出售"的传闻不少。就在2025年12月底，市场盛传川酒"六朵金花"之一的剑南春将对其进行收购；随后，水井坊 紧急发布澄清公告，称相关传闻不实，不存在任何拟收购或被收购计划。 在近日的业绩说明会上，帝亚吉欧管理层明确回应了市场关注的出售水井坊传闻。 帝亚吉欧管理层回应称，从未提及要出售水井坊资产，但如果有人针对不属于帝亚吉欧核心战略的资产提出"无法拒绝"的报价，帝亚吉欧也会有兴趣参与 其中。但帝亚吉欧的目的是希望通过处置部分非核心资产来降低杠杆，并没有低价甩卖品牌的想法。 有分析认为，从这一表态看，水井坊并非帝亚吉欧主动寻求出售的标的，而且如果要出售，也需要买方给出帝亚吉欧无法拒绝的报价。水 ...

白酒调整周期下，世界酒业巨头的日子也不算好过。 帝亚吉欧管理层回应称，从未提及要出售水井坊资产，但如果有人针对不属于帝亚吉欧核心战略的资产 提出"无法拒绝"的报价，帝亚吉欧也会有兴趣参与其中。但帝亚吉欧的目的是希望通过处置部分非核心 资产来降低杠杆，并没有低价甩卖品牌的想法。 近日，水井坊（600779.SH）的控股股东帝亚吉欧（Diageo Plc）公布了截至2025年12月31日的2026上半 财年报告，公司2026上半财年的销售额处于下滑态势；同时，在业绩说明会上，帝亚吉欧回应了出售水 井坊的传言。 帝亚吉欧："从未提及要出售" 但"无法拒绝的报价"会考虑 此前，有消息称，帝亚吉欧目前已开始考虑包括出售选项在内的方式，优化其在中国的投资组合，投行 高盛集团及瑞银集团已与帝亚吉欧展开合作并审查其中国资产的运营情况。 其中，帝亚吉欧的控股子 公司水井坊"是否会被出售"成为关注的焦点。 南都湾财社记者注意到，关于水井坊要"被出售"的传闻不少。就在2025年12月底，市场盛传川酒"六朵 金花"之一的剑南春将对其进行收购；随后，水井坊紧急发布澄清公告，称相关传闻不实，不存在任何 拟收购或被收购计划。 在近日的业绩 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of President Trump's policies on global trade and U.S. credibility, highlighting his approach to a trade war and the revival of the Monroe Doctrine [1] - It mentions Trump's military actions in Venezuela and the buildup of forces around Iran, indicating a focus on regaining U.S. bargaining power over oil resources [3] - The article notes the criticism from U.S. officials regarding Trump's dealings with large corporations and his perceived alignment with China, suggesting a shift in leadership dynamics [6] Group 2 - The response from the Democratic Party, particularly California Governor Newsom, is highlighted as a significant challenge to Trump, indicating a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy direction [7] - The article contrasts the Democratic and Republican approaches to governance, with Democrats favoring globalization and cooperation with Europe, while Trump’s administration adopts a more isolationist and pragmatic stance [9] - It raises concerns about the potential for increased domestic conflict between the two parties, suggesting that escalating tensions could lead to severe consequences [9]

经济观察网 复朗集团（LANV.N）股价近期出现显著波动，市场对其资产出售及基本面状况表示关注。 2025年10月公司首席财务官变更，新任CFO于11月上任。关键财务岗位的人事变动可能影响财务战略的 连贯性，加剧市场对执行力的担忧。 股票近期走势 行业政策与环境 复朗集团（LANV.N）股价在2026年2月呈现显著波动。2月9日股价下跌21.43%至1.10美元，2月10日大 幅反弹28.18%至1.41美元，2月12日下跌8.00%至1.38美元，2月13日继续下跌3.97%至1.45美元。从2026 年1月2日至2月13日，公司股价区间跌幅达27.86%，区间振幅为58.21%。 近期事件 公司基本面 根据2025年上半年财报，复朗集团营收为1.33亿欧元，同比下降22%。尽管毛利率提升至54%，但营收 下滑反映集团正处于战略调整期。截至2026年2月13日，公司市盈率（TTM）为-0.80，市净率为-1.68， 显示仍处于亏损状态且资产质量面临压力。 资金面情况 2月11日成交额仅1.18万美元，换手率0.01%，量比0.08（远低于1）。低流动性环境下，少量交易即可 导致股价大幅震荡。总市值约1.70 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zunming Co., Ltd. (stock code: 003030) expects to achieve operating revenue of 2 billion to 2.05 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.16% to 23.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25 million to 32 million yuan, turning from loss to profit. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be a loss of 36 million to 43 million yuan, indicating an expanded loss year-on-year, primarily supported by non-recurring gains such as demolition compensation and equity transfer income. The formal annual report has yet to be released [1]. Business Performance - The company plans to exit the joint venture "Zunming Xiangxiang" in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market by transferring 50.83% of its equity and will terminate the soybean product production project in Wuhan's Jiangxia District. These actions are a response to ongoing losses in certain regional businesses and land policy restrictions. The company aims to focus future resources on core areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, optimizing its national layout. This strategic shift may impact the pace of long-term expansion [2]. Strategic Progress - The expected turnaround in 2025 is mainly reliant on one-time gains, such as the recognition of asset disposal income of 39.3468 million yuan from the demolition of the subsidiary in Yangzhou and adjustments from equity transfer income in Nanjing. Such gains are not sustainable, and the profitability of the main business remains to be observed. Investors are advised to pay attention to the first-quarter report of 2026 to verify improvements in the main business [3]. Stock Performance - As of February 2, 2026, Zunming Co., Ltd. closed at 21.22 yuan per share, down 4.5% from the previous day, with a total market value of 2.648 billion yuan. Stock price fluctuations may be influenced by the earnings forecast and strategic adjustment announcements. Market sentiment changes and industry competition environment should be noted [4].

Core Viewpoint - The future trends of A-shares and gold can be summarized as "bull market with sharp declines," while assets like the US dollar and yen are characterized by "bear market with false rallies" [2][13]. A-shares Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a rapid rise followed by a sharp decline, which may serve as a preview for the entire year's performance. The China Securities Regulatory Commission's 2026 work meeting emphasized three key points: 1. "Consolidate the market's stable upward momentum," indicating a positive outlook for further market growth [4]. 2. "Timely reverse cycle adjustments," focusing on strict enforcement against excessive speculation and market manipulation to prevent large fluctuations [4]. 3. "Enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the multi-tiered equity market," highlighting the importance of the stock market in supporting the real economy and high-quality development [4]. - The overall trend of a bull market remains intact, but attention should be paid to the potential for emotional pullbacks following rapid price increases, reflecting the "bull market with sharp declines" characteristic [4][11]. External Economic Environment - Two notable characteristics of the external environment include a reversal in the balance of political and economic power between emerging markets and developed countries, and the potential for geopolitical "black swan" events due to US strategic adjustments [5][6]. - The US's strategic shift, as outlined in recent national security and defense strategy reports, suggests a gradual acceptance of its declining hard power status, which may lead to increased geopolitical instability [6]. - The likelihood of "black swan" events in 2026 has been highlighted, with specific risks identified in regions such as Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South Asia, and Latin America [7][8]. Gold and Currency Market Insights - The international trend towards multipolarity suggests a sustained downtrend for the US dollar and an uptrend for gold, although fluctuations may occur due to the US's struggle during its decline [12]. - The yen is expected to weaken, with potential for "false rallies" due to policy interventions, as Japan navigates a challenging geopolitical landscape [12]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - A-shares investment should consider a structural adjustment towards mid-cap stocks, as large-cap stocks significantly influence index movements while small-cap stocks may be prone to bubbles and excessive speculation [11]. - Focus on mid-cap manufacturing stocks is recommended, given the increasing global penetration of Chinese manufacturing [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the conflicting dynamics within the U.S., highlighting the tension between Wall Street's desire for global expansion and the nationalist agenda led by Trump, which focuses on domestic security and protectionism [3][5][10] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% indicates ongoing concerns about inflation and the stability of the U.S. dollar, despite pressures from both financial and industrial sectors [3][10][12] - Israel's strategic positioning in this conflict is emphasized, as Netanyahu's comments suggest a shift in allegiance towards Trump, indicating a potential realignment of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East [5][6][8] Group 2 - The article raises questions about the sustainability of the alliances formed in this geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding Israel's role as a proxy in U.S. military actions in the region [10][12][14] - The potential implications of Trump's trade policies, such as tariffs on semiconductors, are discussed, suggesting a risk to the foundational credibility of the U.S. dollar [10][12] - The ongoing negotiations for military aid to Israel, with a focus on the upcoming contract and its implications for U.S.-Israel relations, are highlighted as a critical factor in the evolving power dynamics [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex dynamics of US-China trade relations, highlighting the strategic maneuvers by the US, particularly under Trump's administration, to counter China's growing influence through tariffs and diplomatic pressure on allies [1][3][10]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Trump's willingness to visit China and engage with US business leaders signals a temporary thaw in US-China relations, aimed at securing short-term economic benefits [1][3]. - The imposition of tariffs on South Korean goods, increasing from 15% to 25%, is framed as a response to South Korea's failure to implement a trade agreement, indicating a tactical shift in US trade policy [3][7]. - The timing of these tariffs, shortly after South Korean President Moon Jae-in's visit to China, suggests a strategic move to undermine China's regional partnerships [3][7]. Group 2: Impact on Allies - The US's aggressive stance towards South Korea and Canada, including threats of punitive tariffs, reflects a broader strategy to disrupt China's expanding international cooperation network [7][10]. - Canada's response to potential tariffs highlights the delicate balance it must maintain between cooperation with China and dependence on the US [7][10]. Group 3: Military and Strategic Considerations - The Pentagon's 2026 Defense Strategy Report adopts a surprisingly moderate tone, emphasizing the avoidance of direct military conflict, which some analysts interpret as a sign of strategic recalibration [10]. - Despite this moderation, there are concerns that hardline factions within the US military may advocate for preemptive actions against China, reflecting deep-seated anxieties about China's rise [10][11]. - The US is reportedly enhancing its military capabilities in the Western Pacific, indicating a dual approach of diplomatic engagement while simultaneously preparing for potential conflict [11][13]. Group 4: China's Response and Strategy - China is advised to maintain strategic composure, recognizing that US discomfort with its rise will not dissipate with temporary diplomatic gestures [13]. - Strengthening practical cooperation with countries like South Korea and Canada, while promoting a transparent stance on peaceful development, is essential for China to counter US narratives [13]. - The article emphasizes the importance of demonstrating military deterrence to influence US decision-making regarding potential aggressive actions against China [13].

Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble (P&G) needs new strategies to drive genuine growth beyond price increases, as recent financial results show revenue growth without profit growth, indicating challenges in maintaining sales volume [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 of FY2026, P&G reported net sales of 154.96 billion yuan, a 1% year-over-year increase, while net profit fell by 7% to 30.22 billion yuan [3][5] - Organic sales, excluding foreign exchange and acquisitions, remained unchanged compared to the previous year [3] - The beauty and health care segments saw a 5% increase in net sales, the highest among P&G's five business units, while the baby, feminine, and family care segment experienced a decline [3][5] Market Trends and Challenges - P&G's performance decline is attributed to changing market trends and evolving consumer demands for higher-end, eco-friendly, and health-conscious products [4] - The company faces increased competition from emerging brands that offer high-quality products at competitive prices, leading to a loss of market share in both high-end and mass markets [4][9] Pricing Strategy - Price increases have been a key factor in supporting P&G's revenue growth, with the company implementing multiple price hikes across its product lines in recent years [6][8] - For instance, P&G raised prices by 6% to 9% across all departments in 2023, and specific brands like SK-II have seen significant price increases [6][7] Strategic Adjustments - P&G is focusing on strategic contraction by divesting underperforming brands and enhancing core brand development, particularly in the high-end market [9] - The company has initiated a two-year plan to optimize its business portfolio and improve productivity, aiming to enhance competitiveness [9] Leadership and Future Outlook - P&G's new CEO, Shailesh Jejurikar, is leading a comprehensive reform to drive growth, expressing confidence in achieving stronger performance in the latter half of FY2026 [10] - The company aims to focus on consumer needs and innovation to navigate external challenges and reshape its future in the consumer goods sector [10]

前言 1月21日，特朗普在社交媒体发文，宣布原定于2月1日对欧洲加征的关税计划无限期搁置，48小时前， 他还拍着胸脯放话"百分百落地"，甚至放狠话6月翻倍征税！ 这一戏剧性的反转让欧洲政坛措手不及，特朗普变脸前几小时，中方外交官刚向欧洲抛出"相向而行"信 号。 编辑：726 特朗普关税取消 局势已然定调，这一轮跨大西洋的交锋，以特朗普的"光速滑跪"暂告一段落。 摆在世界面前的，是一个极其有趣的反差：前一刻还在挥舞关税大棒，要把欧洲8国打得"皮开肉绽"， 后一刻就发帖称"富有成效"，不仅不收税了，还要和欧洲谈谈格陵兰岛的未来。 这种翻脸比翻书还快的节奏，正是典型的"交易的艺术"。 但这绝非偶然，也不仅是心情好坏的问题。 把时钟拨回到中国外交部记者会的那一幕，面对记者关于"如何应对美国压力"的提问，发言人的回答平 淡却有千钧之力：不评论美欧关系，但期待与欧洲相向而行。 一句"救命话"拿捏霸权？特朗普为何突然放弃强硬立场？ 这短短一句话，就像是一颗定心丸，直接塞进了欧洲慌乱的心里。 意思很明白：美国想怎么折腾是他们的事，只要欧洲愿意跟中国好好合作，中国的大门就永远敞开。 这并非虚张声势，而是实打实的战略威慑。 对于 ...