太平洋区域环境规划署秘书处出现在备忘录名单中。该秘书处总干事在给路透社的声明中表示，美国此前为该组织提供了资金与技术支持，不过未来其他合 作伙伴将助力组织继续开展工作。 " 美国可能弄巧成拙 " 【环球时报驻法国特派记者 尚凯元 环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 文远】当地时间1月7日，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普总统当日签署了一份总统备忘 录，指示美国退出66个"不再符合美国利益"的国际组织。白宫称，这些机构推行"激进的气候政策、全球管理理念以及与美国主权和经济实力相冲突的意识 形态项目"。美联社称，美国政府此举标志着美国进一步退出全球合作。印度媒体更是直言不讳称，此举堪称美国现代史上对多边体系影响最为深远的一次 后撤。美国宣称要退出《联合国气候变化框架公约》尤其受到关注。外媒评论认为，此举不仅引发国际范围的轩然大波，也彻底切断了美国与主导国际气候 合作的法律框架之间的关联。美国前白宫国家气候顾问吉娜·麦卡锡直言，这一决定"目光短浅、令人蒙羞且极其愚蠢"。 " 美国似乎正在远离这些机构 " 根据白宫发布的备忘录，特朗普指示美国退出的国际组织包括联合国国际法委员会、联合国人类住区规划署、联合国贸易和发展会议、政府 ...

近期，牛津大学"牛津马丁人工智能治理倡议"高级顾问、多边人工智能主任山姆·道斯(Sam Daws)受邀 参加"明德战略对话(2025)"，并与中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长、全球领导力学院院长王文深入交 流。道斯指出，虽然当下全球治理面临困难，传统多年组织面临挑战，但全球合作仍然非常重要、必不 可少。他表示，维持多边体系，需创新合作方式。 全球合作是"必选项" 王文：我认为欧美学者都应该像您一样，经常善于对话和沟通。对于中国来讲，有时候我们觉得很困 惑，现在和欧美国家交流变得越来越难了。有时候我邀请美国、欧洲朋友到中国来，他们说"不能来， 在中国很危险啊！"对于这样的论调，您如何看待？ 但是，一些国家开始愈发怀疑这些"自上而下"的法律与条文的价值，因此，维持多边体系需要创新合作 方式。我认为，非常积极的现象是，如今正在建立中的一些新的多边科学平台，比如联合国，就建立了 人工智能相关机制与平台。中国也推动建立了有关人工智能治理的国际合作组织。 美国"退群"，影响几何？ 王文：关于全球治理，我们有很多合作空间。现在全球治理的一个严重问题是美国的退出。美国已经连 续宣布退出《巴黎协定》、联合国人权理事会、世界卫生组 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on high-quality development and increasing domestic consumption as primary goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a shift from reliance on investment and exports to domestic demand and consumption [1][2][3]. Economic Transition - The transition from export dependency to domestic demand has been recognized since the 12th Five-Year Plan, marking a long-term process that may span decades [2]. - The emphasis on Gross National Income (GNI) reflects a growing concern for income distribution among different social strata, aligning with the current economic realities in China [2][3]. - Historical growth in China was heavily reliant on external demand, but as the economy matures, the sustainability of export-driven growth is diminishing [2][3]. Innovation and Technology - The 15th Five-Year Plan will prioritize self-reliance in technology, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system, and fostering a development model that integrates education, technology, and talent [3][4]. - The focus on technological innovation aims to boost productivity, which is essential for meeting domestic economic and social development needs [3][4]. Global Competition - The economic transformation is not optional for China but a necessary response to avoid falling into the "middle-income trap," necessitating a shift towards domestic economic reliance and service sector development [4][5]. - In the context of global competition, particularly in artificial intelligence, China and the U.S. are seen as leading players, with both countries having distinct advantages [5][6]. Multilateral Cooperation - The current U.S. administration's withdrawal from multilateral agreements has raised questions about the future of global cooperation, suggesting a need for a new multilateral system that coexists with the U.S.'s bilateral approach [7][8]. - Despite U.S. resistance to multilateralism, the consensus among most countries favors continued multilateral cooperation, indicating a potential shift towards a more complex and fragmented global trade system [8].

Core Insights - The United Nations Coordinator in China,常启德, praised China's role in the UN and its leadership in reshaping the multilateral system globally [3][4] - He emphasized China's significant contributions through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative, aligning with the spirit of the UN Charter [3][4] Group 1 - China is a crucial member of the UN Security Council and the largest developing country contributor, playing an essential role in the UN system [3] - The UN has achieved unprecedented development in its 80 years, but vulnerabilities in global development are increasingly exposed [4] - China has successfully lifted over 800 million people out of poverty and feeds about one-fifth of the world's population using only 9% of global arable land [4] Group 2 - The UN Coordinator highlighted the importance of China's leadership in the current process of reshaping the multilateral system [4] - China is seen as a bridge for cooperation and coordination, significantly supporting the UN system and strengthening multilateralism [4] - The Coordinator noted that China's contributions are vital across five core areas outlined in the "Future Covenant": global governance, peace and security, sustainable development goals, AI and technology development, and youth development [4]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects moderate growth for Latin America in 2025, estimating a growth rate of 2.4% for that year and 2.3% for 2026, which shows slight improvement compared to July's report but still falls short of pre-pandemic momentum [1] Economic Environment - Emerging economies are facing increasing global environmental challenges, impacting economic vitality in Latin America [1] - External conditions are becoming more challenging, with higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. limiting external demand and significantly affecting several large export-oriented economies [1] Trade and Investment - Uncertainty regarding trade relations is affecting private investment, as trade policy uncertainty is suppressing corporate investment willingness [1] - The IMF calls for a pragmatic, adaptable, and cooperative multilateral system to address risks and challenges, emphasizing the need for clear and transparent trade rules to improve growth prospects [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2% [1] - The growth forecast for 2025 is also adjusted to 3.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the July prediction, while the 2026 forecast remains at 3.1% [1] - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.6% this year and next, with the US and Eurozone projected to grow by 2% and 1.2% respectively in 2023 [1][2] Group 2 - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.2% this year and 4% next year [1] - The upward revision of the global growth forecast is attributed to lower-than-expected economic shocks from tariffs, with importers stockpiling goods and some countries negotiating trade agreements with the US [1] - Despite the positive outlook, the IMF warns that high effective tariff rates in the US (approximately 19%) and ongoing trade tensions continue to cast a shadow over the global economy [1] Group 3 - The IMF anticipates a continued decline in global inflation rates, although disparities exist among countries [2] - US inflation is expected to remain above target levels, with upward risks, while other countries are projected to experience lower inflation [2] - The current situation emphasizes the importance of a multilateral system for addressing global challenges and fostering a more resilient global economy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The United Nations is focusing on enhancing coordination and flexibility within its system to improve operational efficiency and execution effectiveness in response to rapid changes in technology, economy, and geopolitics [1][2] Group 1: Challenges and Responses - The UN faces several global challenges, including the governance of artificial intelligence, declining trust in multilateral systems, and increasing inequality, which require collective action from all nations [1] - A strong and effective multilateral system is urgently needed to provide fair, inclusive, and responsive solutions to these challenges [1] Group 2: Reform Initiatives - The UN Future Summit last year adopted the "Future Contract," addressing five key areas: sustainable development, development financing, international peace and security, science and technology, and global governance reform [1] - The UN Secretary-General launched the "UN 80th Anniversary Initiative" this year, focusing on enhancing effectiveness, optimizing processes, reviewing task execution, and potential structural reforms [1][2] Group 3: China's Role - China has released a "Global Governance Initiative Concept Document," emphasizing that the UN is the core platform for practicing multilateralism and advancing global governance [2] - The initiative reflects China's commitment to maintaining a UN-centered international system and calls for better alignment between vision and action, leveraging technology and funding to improve livelihoods and expand opportunities [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming 25th China-EU leaders' meeting on July 24 marks the 50th anniversary of China-EU diplomatic relations, emphasizing the need for mutual understanding and cooperation to navigate future challenges [1][2][4] Economic Cooperation - China-EU trade has grown significantly from $2.4 billion at the time of diplomatic establishment to over $780 billion today, with bilateral investment stock reaching approximately $260 billion [2] - The China-Europe Railway Express has operated over 110,000 trains, connecting 229 cities across 26 European countries, highlighting the importance of trade logistics [2] Green Development - Both China and the EU are committed to low-carbon transformation and green development, with extensive cooperation in clean energy projects and environmental initiatives [3] - The collaboration spans various sectors, including renewable energy and smart manufacturing, indicating a strong potential for future partnerships in green technology [3] Cultural Exchange - Humanistic exchanges between China and Europe have flourished, with increasing cooperation in education and technology, fostering deeper mutual understanding [3] - The popularity of Chinese culture, such as giant pandas and Chinese animation films, has strengthened people-to-people ties [3] Strategic Importance - The stability of China-EU relations is deemed strategically significant in the context of global uncertainties, with both parties being major economic powers contributing to global economic stability [5][6] - The emphasis on mutual respect and seeking common ground while reserving differences is highlighted as a key lesson from the past 50 years [4][5]

Group 1: Global Trade and Investment - The ongoing US tariff policies are reshaping the global trade landscape, with experts suggesting that China should play a more significant role in international trade [1] - Former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka highlighted that the biggest challenges facing the world are imbalance and instability, particularly due to the US's chronic trade deficit stemming from domestic economic imbalances [1] - Michael Spence emphasized that trade wars are mutually damaging and called for the establishment of a multilateral system supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging economies [1] Group 2: China's Market Attractiveness - Despite increasing pressures from US-China trade frictions, the attractiveness of the Chinese market remains strong, with low valuations for Chinese companies and a robust economic foundation [2] - The presence of a large, high-quality population and the world's largest pool of engineers provides China with unique advantages for foreign investment [2] - Continuous opening of economic and financial systems in China is expected to enhance its appeal to foreign investors, a trend that will not change due to US-China tariff disputes [2] Group 3: Global Monetary System - Experts at the forum noted a gradual decline in the dominance of the US dollar in the global monetary system, indicating a trend towards diversification [2] - Hu Xiaolian, former chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, stated that the future international monetary system will be more diverse and inclusive, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks [2] Group 4: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi is gaining attention, with the need for a strong international financial center to support it, emphasizing the importance of opening domestic financial markets [3] - The release of the "China Financial Policy Report 2025" analyzed the challenges and opportunities facing China's financial development, including external complexities and the restructuring of international trade orders [3] - The report also addressed issues in financial security and regulation, highlighting the impact of regulatory reforms in various countries, particularly the US, on global financial stability [3]

Group 1 - Michael Spence highlighted that the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO and climate agreements indicates a retreat from sustainable development agendas, leading to three potential scenarios for the future [1] - The most likely scenario is a mixed one, where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging markets, as the economic weight of emerging markets is gradually increasing [1] - Spence noted that the trade negotiations are showing positive changes, with the negative effects on consumer confidence in the U.S. economy being a significant concern [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is emphasized, with current inflationary pressures easing but ongoing tariff policies raising questions about necessary countermeasures [3] - Spence mentioned that the recent developments in AI technology, particularly the rise of open-source AI models, are having a positive impact on the global economy [3] - The report from Stanford indicates that the gap between the U.S. and China in AI technology is rapidly narrowing, with both countries focusing on smaller models that are more cost-effective [3]