新华社布鲁塞尔7月22日电 题：相向而行继往开来——中欧人士解读中欧关系经验启示 新华社记者陈斌杰张兆卿魏梦佳 欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩将于7月24日访华并将举行第二十五次中国—欧盟领 导人会晤。 今年是中欧建交50周年。中欧关系从建交到建立全面战略伙伴关系，经历国际风云变幻考验，保持稳定 发展势头，取得丰硕合作成果。中欧人士认为，在新的历史起点上，双方应相向而行、继往开来，总结 中欧关系发展经验，增进理解互信，巩固伙伴定位，凝聚合作共识，妥处分歧差异，共同开辟中欧关系 下一个更加坚韧自主、更加成熟稳定、更加目光远大的50年。 蔡润表示，中欧分处亚欧大陆两端，双方不存在根本利害冲突，也没有地缘政治矛盾。双方是伙伴而不 是对手，更不是敌人。欧方应同中方相向而行，按照双方领导人达成的通过对话协商解决分歧摩擦的重 要共识，拿出政治诚意和决断，妥善解决这些分歧摩擦。这对双方有利，对整个世界也有利。 欧洲商业联合会近期向欧洲理事会主席科斯塔致公开信。信中说，中国是欧盟的主要贸易和投资伙伴， 也是欧洲企业的重要市场，应对全球治理挑战也需要欧中展开持续合作。欧盟应继续与中国合作以增进 共同利益并应对全球 ...

Group 1: Global Trade and Investment - The ongoing US tariff policies are reshaping the global trade landscape, with experts suggesting that China should play a more significant role in international trade [1] - Former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka highlighted that the biggest challenges facing the world are imbalance and instability, particularly due to the US's chronic trade deficit stemming from domestic economic imbalances [1] - Michael Spence emphasized that trade wars are mutually damaging and called for the establishment of a multilateral system supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging economies [1] Group 2: China's Market Attractiveness - Despite increasing pressures from US-China trade frictions, the attractiveness of the Chinese market remains strong, with low valuations for Chinese companies and a robust economic foundation [2] - The presence of a large, high-quality population and the world's largest pool of engineers provides China with unique advantages for foreign investment [2] - Continuous opening of economic and financial systems in China is expected to enhance its appeal to foreign investors, a trend that will not change due to US-China tariff disputes [2] Group 3: Global Monetary System - Experts at the forum noted a gradual decline in the dominance of the US dollar in the global monetary system, indicating a trend towards diversification [2] - Hu Xiaolian, former chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, stated that the future international monetary system will be more diverse and inclusive, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks [2] Group 4: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi is gaining attention, with the need for a strong international financial center to support it, emphasizing the importance of opening domestic financial markets [3] - The release of the "China Financial Policy Report 2025" analyzed the challenges and opportunities facing China's financial development, including external complexities and the restructuring of international trade orders [3] - The report also addressed issues in financial security and regulation, highlighting the impact of regulatory reforms in various countries, particularly the US, on global financial stability [3]

Group 1 - Michael Spence highlighted that the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO and climate agreements indicates a retreat from sustainable development agendas, leading to three potential scenarios for the future [1] - The most likely scenario is a mixed one, where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging markets, as the economic weight of emerging markets is gradually increasing [1] - Spence noted that the trade negotiations are showing positive changes, with the negative effects on consumer confidence in the U.S. economy being a significant concern [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is emphasized, with current inflationary pressures easing but ongoing tariff policies raising questions about necessary countermeasures [3] - Spence mentioned that the recent developments in AI technology, particularly the rise of open-source AI models, are having a positive impact on the global economy [3] - The report from Stanford indicates that the gap between the U.S. and China in AI technology is rapidly narrowing, with both countries focusing on smaller models that are more cost-effective [3]

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the positive changes in US-China trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of bilateral talks and the potential for a more stable global economic environment [1][2]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Michael Spence noted that the US accounts for 25% of global GDP, with 13% of its imports coming from China and 15% of China's exports going to the US, indicating significant interdependence [1]. - The ongoing trade war has negatively impacted consumer confidence in the US, which could lead to disastrous effects on the global economy if not addressed [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's primary tasks include managing employment and inflation, with current inflation pressures being influenced by supply and demand dynamics rather than just tariff impacts [2]. - Spence pointed out that while capital expenditures and tourism are declining, demand remains relatively stable, which could still contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Future of Global Trade System - Three potential scenarios for the future of the global trade system were discussed: a fragmented approach where countries act independently, a scenario where major powers exert their influence, and the most likely scenario where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other emerging markets [2]. - Despite the current US government's anti-multilateral stance, Spence believes that a multilateral system could persist and even thrive without the US, with the possibility of the US rejoining in the future [2].

2025年5月17日上午，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在广东省深圳市盛大开幕。 2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈克尔·斯宾塞通过视频连线形式发表主旨演讲。他指 出，全球贸易体系方面，贸易战是互相伤害，必须纠正，未来最有可能的情形是建 立多边体系，欧洲、中国及其他主要新兴经济体支持建立相对合理、可行的多边体 系。从货币政策来看，美联储的货币政策是当前不确定性的来源之一。美联储的首 要任务是稳定就业、管理好通货膨胀，其货币政策会根据不同的情况进行反应，这 是当前不确定的来源。技术方面，中美之间差距在迅速缩小，De epSe ek等一些大模 型在中国出现，未来人工智能（AI）的包容性、普惠性越来越强。 图为迈克尔·斯宾塞 迈克尔·斯宾塞： 非常感谢，很高兴见到各位，也希望下一次会议我可以在现场参加。 提问： 我们是在深圳召开本次会议，聚焦全球经济金融系统创新等话题。想先请教您一个关于贸易战 的问题。中美部分关税在90天内临时暂停执行，我们看到全球股市都在回升，这一举措得到全球市场的 欢迎。这是一个大的进步，但这仅仅是一个开始。我猜测所有人心里都有一些疑问：最差和最好的状况 会是怎样的？未来我们的方向到底是什么？所以 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum opened in Shenzhen with the theme "Sharing the Future: Building an Open and Inclusive Economic and Financial System" [1][2] - The forum features 15 significant meetings and nearly 100 high-profile political and economic leaders and experts discussing global monetary systems, international trade and investment, and challenges of global economic fragmentation [2][5] - The forum aims to explore new paths for global economic and financial development and enhance the resilience of economic and financial systems in the face of uncertainty [2][5] Group 2 - Tsinghua Wudaokou Financial School Dean Jiao Jie emphasized that China has been a major contributor to global economic growth and is transitioning from a rule follower to a reformer in global governance [5][6] - Jiao Jie highlighted the importance of high-quality development in response to external uncertainties and mentioned five key areas of focus for China's financial development: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [5][6] - Former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka noted that European companies are eager to access the Chinese market more effectively [5][6] - Nobel Laureate Michael Spence suggested that a multilateral system supported by Europe, China, and other emerging economies is increasingly necessary as the economic weight of emerging markets grows [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of communication among countries during challenging global circumstances, with the upcoming China-Latin America and Caribbean Forum serving as a crucial platform for dialogue [1] - Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley reiterated her opposition to "decoupling" and emphasized the need to support a multilateral trading system centered around the World Trade Organization, especially in the context of a complex global economy [3] - Mottley highlighted that small and developing countries thrive due to a strong international order based on rules, which was established through their membership in the World Trade Organization, advocating for the strengthening of this multilateral framework to ensure fairness and transparency [5] Group 2 - The relationship between China and Barbados has been developing positively, with frequent high-level exchanges and enhanced cooperation across various fields, including the signing of a memorandum for the Belt and Road Initiative in 2019 [5] - Mottley mentioned numerous practical cooperation projects between China and Caribbean countries, particularly in education and sports, which foster trust and collaboration [5][7] - Specific examples of cooperation include ongoing projects in education, food security, and agricultural education, emphasizing that collaboration leads to synergistic benefits and closer partnerships [7]

Group 1 - The relationship between South Africa and China is strong, with both countries sharing many common views on global governance, and China is seen as a crucial pillar in maintaining the multilateral system [1][2] - South Africa and China are deepening their cooperation within the BRICS framework and maintaining coordination on multilateral platforms [1] - South Africa emphasizes the need for reforming existing global governance systems rather than abolishing them, with a strong commitment to the United Nations as a key platform [1] Group 2 - South Africa is focusing on global issues such as climate change, equitable development, and financing accessibility, which are essential for achieving global stability [2] - The rise of global trade protectionism presents new opportunities for South Africa-China economic cooperation, with South Africa aiming to diversify its trade and increase exports to China [2] - South Africa seeks to enhance the value-added of its export products and reduce reliance on primary product exports, aligning with its industrialization strategy and aiming to rebuild manufacturing capacity [2]