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创金合信基金魏凤春:下半年全球资产配置的变化
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-07-01 09:08
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's assets have a clear comparative advantage, primarily due to the manageable situation in the Middle East and the ongoing global restructuring of order, which has not yet disrupted existing pricing logic for global risk assets [1]. Market Trends and Asset Performance - In the first half of 2025, the market showed distinct trends, with significant appreciation in Chinese assets, particularly the North Star 50 index rising by 38.7% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increasing by 21% [1]. - Safety remains a key consideration for many investors, as evidenced by a 24.7% increase in London gold prices and strong performance in bank stocks within the A-share market [2]. - Traditional industries like coal and real estate are experiencing declining returns, aligning with the broader trend of industrial transformation [2]. - Thematic investments in sectors such as robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology reflect the evolution of dominant industries, driven by technological advancements rather than policy catalysts [2][4]. - The U.S. equity market is undergoing a complex head formation, with significant adjustments in tech stocks due to macroeconomic pressures, including high inflation and debt concerns [2][4]. External Variables Impacting the Market - A notable decrease in global risk premiums has been observed, attributed to the stabilization of geopolitical tensions and the emergence of a Nash equilibrium in U.S.-China negotiations [6]. - The U.S. debt pressure has eased, with the passage of legislation aimed at stabilizing the stablecoin market, which is expected to enhance demand for U.S. Treasury securities [7]. - The likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has increased, although the Fed remains cautious due to inflation concerns stemming from trade tensions [8]. - Technology continues to be a focal point in global competition, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, with AI advancements being a critical area of investment interest [9]. Future Outlook - The trend of global asset reallocation remains unchanged, driven by persistent high U.S. interest rates and fiscal deficits, leading to a gradual outflow of capital from dollar-denominated assets [11]. - Tactical asset allocation will continue to focus on technology, with particular attention to advancements in autonomous driving and brain-computer interfaces, as well as expanding markets in China [11]. - Divergence in investor sentiment regarding gold is increasing, influenced by the rise of stablecoins and a potential easing of geopolitical tensions, which may diminish gold's traditional safe-haven appeal [12].