Group 1 - Morgan Stanley projects a slowdown in global GDP growth to 1.4% and an increase in core inflation to 3.4% in the second half of 2025 due to trade wars and rising tariffs [1] - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from early investments made in the first half of the year, but will face significant pressure from the anticipated slowdown [1] - Core inflation in the Eurozone is expected to drop below 2%, while China's exports to the U.S. have significantly decreased, offset by growth in exports to other regions [1] Group 2 - There is a moderate upward deviation in global GDP growth expectations for the second half of 2025, driven by a healthy private sector, a robust financial environment, and anticipated increases in energy supply and fiscal policy easing [2] - The risk of the U.S. economy entering a recession is estimated at 40%, primarily due to concerns over a sharp decline in household purchasing power and weak business sentiment [2] - A buffer mechanism from a healthy industry that has not laid off workers is crucial for sustaining U.S. economic growth, although it may lead to compressed profit margins, which could weaken growth prospects [2]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - The narrow - range oscillation of the bond market may continue, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield likely to fluctuate within the 1.6% - 1.7% range. Short - term bonds may offer better value due to the central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity [1][10]. - The US labor market is cooling, inflation pressure is mild, and the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates in the short term. However, if subsequent economic data weakens, the period from July to September may see a policy shift [17][19][26]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Views - **Q1**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active - bond yield dropped from 1.6525% last Friday to 1.642% this week. Various economic data and policy events influenced the yield's daily fluctuations. The bond market showed desensitization to May's fundamental data, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [8][9][10]. - **Q2**: Geopolitical changes in the Middle East have increased global stagflation risks and pushed up the US bond yield curve. The US labor market is cooling, inflation pressure is mild, and the Fed is expected to hold off on short - term interest rate cuts, but a policy shift may occur from July to September if economic data deteriorates [16][17][26]. 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Data on open - market operations from April 7 - 11, 2025, showed a net injection of - 6717 billion yuan. Interest rates in the money market and the issuance of interest - rate bonds in the past two weeks are also presented [31]. 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total transaction area of commercial housing declined. Steel prices generally decreased, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed movements. Prices of coking coal, thermal coal, vegetables, and international crude oil are also tracked [48][49][60]. 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the primary market this week, 39 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 107.786 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 150.798 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 43.012 billion yuan. The main issuers were Yunnan, Henan, and Liaoning. Shandong and Henan issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts [62][65][66]. 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 51.05 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 58.8789 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.15%. Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were the most active trading provinces, and the 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y bonds were the most actively traded [77]. 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The issuance plan for local government bonds from June 16 - 20, 2025, involves multiple provinces and municipalities [83]. 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - A total of 380 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 314.099 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 214.461 billion yuan, and a net financing of 99.638 billion yuan. The net financing decreased by 24.943 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 10.99 billion yuan, while that of industrial bonds was 100.737 billion yuan [84][85]. 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different changes, with short - term financing bills increasing by 9.31bp, medium - term notes increasing by 14.98bp, enterprise bonds increasing by 0.13bp, and corporate bonds decreasing by 18.65bp [97]. 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 619.479 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and ratings [99]. 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds showed mixed movements, while the yields of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally declined [99][100][102]. 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [104][107][110]. 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed, while those of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend [117][118][123]. 4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of credit bonds [128][129]. 4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings - There were no upward or downward adjustments to the issuer's subject ratings or outlooks this week [130].