Group 1 - Morgan Stanley projects a slowdown in global GDP growth to 1.4% and an increase in core inflation to 3.4% in the second half of 2025 due to trade wars and rising tariffs [1] - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from early investments made in the first half of the year, but will face significant pressure from the anticipated slowdown [1] - Core inflation in the Eurozone is expected to drop below 2%, while China's exports to the U.S. have significantly decreased, offset by growth in exports to other regions [1] Group 2 - There is a moderate upward deviation in global GDP growth expectations for the second half of 2025, driven by a healthy private sector, a robust financial environment, and anticipated increases in energy supply and fiscal policy easing [2] - The risk of the U.S. economy entering a recession is estimated at 40%, primarily due to concerns over a sharp decline in household purchasing power and weak business sentiment [2] - A buffer mechanism from a healthy industry that has not laid off workers is crucial for sustaining U.S. economic growth, although it may lead to compressed profit margins, which could weaken growth prospects [2]

Group 1 - The White House indicated that President Trump will make a decision within two weeks, with a significant chance of resolving issues through negotiations, leading to a calming of market sentiment [1] - Oil prices fell approximately 2%, while U.S. oil rose about 0.7%, reflecting mixed reactions in the energy sector [1][9] - European stocks saw gains, with the German stock market rising about 1% and the French market increasing by approximately 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold decreased by about 0.6%, and silver fell by approximately 1%, indicating a decline in precious metals [2] - Bitcoin and Ethereum both rose over 1%, suggesting a positive trend in the cryptocurrency market despite overall market caution [2] - Analysts warn of potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly if the U.S. increases its involvement in ongoing conflicts, which could lead to oil prices soaring above $130 per barrel [2] Group 3 - In the U.S. stock market, major indices experienced a limited decline of about 0.2% across the board [2][3] - The British pound saw a slight increase of about 0.2% against the dollar following the release of disappointing retail sales data [6]

交易员减少对英国央行宽松力度的押注，倾向于今年再降息一次。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traders are reducing their bets on the Bank of England's easing measures, leaning towards the expectation of one more rate cut this year [1] Group 1 - The sentiment among traders indicates a shift in expectations regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy [1] - There is a growing belief that the Bank of England may implement an additional interest rate cut in the current year [1]