黄金/美元 黄金昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于4223附近。获利回吐是施压黄金自6周高位回落的主 要原因。此外，市场的风险情绪有所转暖也对黄金构成了一定的打压。不过，美联储12月份的降息预期 持续升温限制了黄金的回调空间。今日关注4280附近的压力情况，下方支撑在4150附近。 美元/日元 来源：市场资讯 12月3日，根据经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的最新预测，发达经济体将在2026年底前结束当前的降 息周期。这表明，尽管经济增长可能放缓，但多数主要央行的政策宽松空间已经十分有限。经合组织预 计，美联储到2026年底前只会再降息两次，随后在整个2027年将联邦基金利率维持在3.25%至3.5%之 间，因为该行需要在关税带来的通胀压力与走弱的劳动力市场之间保持平衡。经合组织表示，该机构预 计欧元区和加拿大不会进一步降息，日本则将在通胀稳定在2%左右的情况下稳步收紧货币政策。经合 组织预测还显示，英国央行的降息"将在2026年上半年结束"，澳大利亚预计将在明年下半年达到类似的 节点。该组织认为，目前来看，全球经济比预期更好地经受住了特朗普关税带来的冲击。全球GDP预计 在2025年增长3.2%，202 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia's market value dropped by approximately $20.14 billion (about 1.4378 trillion RMB) overnight, with its stock price falling over 4% [2] - Major technology stocks, including Nvidia and Intel, experienced declines, contributing to a mixed performance in the U.S. stock indices [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.95%, with notable declines in popular stocks such as NIO and Baidu, which dropped over 5% and 4% respectively [4][6] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that monetary policy decisions will be made based on evolving economic conditions rather than a predetermined path [6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July's prediction, while maintaining the 2026 growth rate at 3.1% [6] - Market expectations indicate a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, following a previous cut announced on September 17 [7]

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 97.33, with mixed movements in major non-USD currencies [1] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate rising by 49 basis points to 7.1057 [3] - The Australian dollar has recently declined, breaking key support levels, but may show potential for recovery if it maintains above certain moving averages [4] - The USD/JPY pair shows signs of upward momentum, with key resistance levels identified at 148.57 and 149.00 [5] - The EUR/USD pair has experienced a pullback but remains above significant moving averages, with potential downward pressure if it falls below certain trend lines [5] Economic Indicators - The focus for today includes the German IFO Business Climate Index to be released at 16:00 [1][9] - The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from a previous estimate of 2.9% [8] Key Events - US President Trump is scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly [9] - Australia will release its August weighted CPI year-on-year data [9] - The US will report on new home sales and EIA crude oil inventories later in the day [10]

Group 1: Tariff and Economic Impact - UBS's Chief China Economist Wang Tao stated that US tariffs on China will remain high for an extended period, prompting the Chinese government to implement additional policies to support domestic consumption and infrastructure financing, estimated to be equivalent to 0.5% to 1% of GDP [1] - UBS raised its global economic growth forecast from 2.5% to 2.7% due to progress in US-China trade talks, although it anticipates a significant slowdown in US economic growth, projecting a decline from 2.5% to 0.9% by 2025 [2] - The economic loss for the US due to trade tariffs was initially estimated at 2.5% of GDP, equating to approximately $800 billion in tariff revenue, but has since improved to 1.5% of GDP following agreements to reduce tariffs [2] Group 2: Export and Manufacturing Trends - China's export data showed resilience in April, with a 20% decrease in exports to the US but a 20% increase in exports to ASEAN countries, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4] - The manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.0%, indicating a contraction, influenced by high previous growth rates and external environment changes, while non-manufacturing indices remained in the expansion zone [4] - Companies are facing uncertainty due to increased tariffs from the US on multiple countries, leading to potential delays in decision-making and a trend towards diversifying production locations based on target markets [5] Group 3: Structural Opportunities and Supply Chain Adjustments - Wang Tao emphasized that despite external challenges, China can create new structural opportunities through reforms, openness, and technological advancements, facilitating a transition from an export-driven to a consumption and investment-driven economy [6] - The global supply chain is undergoing reconfiguration, with some supply chains potentially moving away from China; however, China is expected to utilize policy tools to adapt to higher tariffs and external changes [6] - Hong Kong is positioned uniquely to assist companies in adjusting their overseas strategies, particularly in financing and services, as European and Middle Eastern markets gain importance for Chinese exports [5][6]

Group 1 - The global trade conflict easing has led to a rebound in oil prices, but subsequent price movements will be primarily influenced by geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production levels [1][4] - As of May 15, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures at $61.72 per barrel, down over 2.2%, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.66 per barrel, down 2.15% [1] - Positive signals from US-Iran nuclear negotiations have emerged, with Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions, which may lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has officially started its long-awaited production increase process, with an agreement to raise output by 41.1 thousand barrels per day from May to June, despite a lower-than-expected increase in April [2] - OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, projecting a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, while also revising down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% [2] - The international oil market's trading logic is shifting, with factors such as reduced US tariff pressures and ongoing sanctions against oil-producing countries contributing to price dynamics, while OPEC+ production increases and potential easing of US-Iran tensions present downside risks [4]